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Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors?

02-17-2018 , 03:26 PM
Every Thursday I play in a $35 buy in small stakes MTT. There's usually 40-50 entrants and we start off with 1000 BB, with blinds at 100/200 and 200,000 stacks. However, an hour and 15 into the tournament, when play starts up after the first break blinds are already 2000/4000.

I play extremely tight early as I have noticed people will call 15x raises pre flop early with awful hands like K5o, J6s, 34s, etc. I was at a huge disadvantage last tournament, because somewhat early on when blinds were 500/1000, I raised it to 7000 pre flop with AA and rain into a set of 2's, but luckily made my way back.

So onto the actual question - I always make it to the final two tables. I have never not made it to the final two tables and usually make it to the final table. I've played in this tournamnet 17 times and have only won it twice, but have made the final table 11 times, and have cashed 6 times (final four usually cash.)

I have been in a serious slump lately though with always being short stacked late and losing every shove. The last four tournaments, this is how I've been eliminated:

9 BB (14 remain) shoved UTG with AQs, rain into TT and they held
12 BB (16 remain) shoved MP1 with TT, rain into KJo and a J hit
8 BB (6 remain) shoved BB with AJs and rain into AA
5 BB left (11 remain) checked BB with J6o, flop came 632 rainbow and I shoved got called by 45.

Are these generally bad plays, or am I just on the bad end of variance? I'm starting to think cash is my strong suit and I should stop playing in weekly tournaments. I appreciate the insight in advance a lot, because I can't tell you how much 2+2 has helped me out!
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-17-2018 , 03:58 PM
Part of your issue may be that you're waiting too long to find spots to shove your short stack. You should be finding spots between 12-15BBs to shove, when you can enforce optimal pressure on the 25-35BB stacks. They're a lot less likely to call with ATs or 77 when you shove for 14BBs than they are when you only have 8BBs.

Try to improve your short stack game and find places to squeeze/shove with slightly more chips. Look at push/fold charts to get a general idea.
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-17-2018 , 04:22 PM
You can't expect to win every time however bad the play. 2 wins from 17 is pretty good.

And I don't know why you are playing very tight early- playing deep stacked against bad players who are willing to call raises with junk sounds like a great situation.
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-17-2018 , 04:53 PM
Where is this tournament I want in.

All those hands you posted are standard coolers but the hand where you had J6o if you were to shove that pre flop he could maybe find a fold with 45o if he is short stacked himself. If you're being limped on with 2 short stacks and you pick up any sort of hand I think a push is much better than just checking, let him decide whether or not he wants to play. All it really sounds like you need to work in is putting the decisions more so to your opponents rather than just waiting for the golden opportunity. Sometimes you just have to take the shot if you know full well it's the correct play and should effectively make you more money in the long run.
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-17-2018 , 05:09 PM
I didn't hit on the point that oldgoat did: 2 wins out of 17 is very good, even excellent.

Even if they're taking a 30% rake, a win against 50 players should be equal to about 20 BIs. Just the two wins alone should have you at 40 BIs, plus the other cashes you made are icing on top of that. That's one hell of an ROI off 17 tourneys.
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-17-2018 , 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
Part of your issue may be that you're waiting too long to find spots to shove your short stack. You should be finding spots between 12-15BBs to shove, when you can enforce optimal pressure on the 25-35BB stacks. They're a lot less likely to call with ATs or 77 when you shove for 14BBs than they are when you only have 8BBs.

Try to improve your short stack game and find places to squeeze/shove with slightly more chips. Look at push/fold charts to get a general idea.
The problem that seems to arise is that the blinds raise so fast. The blinds are on a 15 minute timer and get really big, really fast. To start you have 1000bb, in theory if you entered the tournament an hour late, you are starting off with 100bb, that's how fast they increase. I should certainly spend more time looking at push/fold charts though.
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-17-2018 , 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldgoat
You can't expect to win every time however bad the play. 2 wins from 17 is pretty good.

And I don't know why you are playing very tight early- playing deep stacked against bad players who are willing to call raises with junk sounds like a great situation.
Every book I have read has said to play very tight in the early rounds. I'm not saying that this information can't be wrong, but what makes you say that playing loose early is the way to go?
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-17-2018 , 09:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UntimelyBluff
Where is this tournament I want in.

All those hands you posted are standard coolers but the hand where you had J6o if you were to shove that pre flop he could maybe find a fold with 45o if he is short stacked himself. If you're being limped on with 2 short stacks and you pick up any sort of hand I think a push is much better than just checking, let him decide whether or not he wants to play. All it really sounds like you need to work in is putting the decisions more so to your opponents rather than just waiting for the golden opportunity. Sometimes you just have to take the shot if you know full well it's the correct play and should effectively make you more money in the long run.
Hahaha, let me know if you're in Michigan and I can direct you to where this tournament is. I completely agree in hindsight that I should've shoved with J6o in that situation.

On your final point in regards to taking the shot if I know it's the correct play, I agree that I'm probably not doing that just enough. Thank you for the insight!
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-17-2018 , 09:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
I didn't hit on the point that oldgoat did: 2 wins out of 17 is very good, even excellent.

Even if they're taking a 30% rake, a win against 50 players should be equal to about 20 BIs. Just the two wins alone should have you at 40 BIs, plus the other cashes you made are icing on top of that. That's one hell of an ROI off 17 tourneys.
Thank you!! I would say the tournament field is extremely weak though, so I don't know how big of an accomplishment that actually is. I would say out of 50 players, only 10 (at most) are good opponents.
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-17-2018 , 11:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
Thank you!! I would say the tournament field is extremely weak though, so I don't know how big of an accomplishment that actually is. I would say out of 50 players, only 10 (at most) are good opponents.
If your goal is to make money then its a great accomplishment. Weak opponents make for good roi. Isnt that the point of playing?
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-18-2018 , 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
Every book I have read has said to play very tight in the early rounds. I'm not saying that this information can't be wrong, but what makes you say that playing loose early is the way to go?
You're starting with 1000bb and play very deep for several levels. Hands like AA are at a huge disadvantage this deep. You need to open up your game early and see lots of flops with hands that can hit big. Don't be a donk like the others and call raises with hands like K5o, but you should be seeing flops with a wide range of suited connectors and gappers. In a tourney that deep I would much rather have 97s than AA.

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Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-18-2018 , 10:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
Every book I have read has said to play very tight in the early rounds. I'm not saying that this information can't be wrong, but what makes you say that playing loose early is the way to go?
Is this Harrington ? - I'm not sure many people agree with him these days - The point is that if you have weak players who call raises with trash and probably get too attached to one pair hands there are lots of hands that become profitable particularly IP. You don't have to go wild. If you stick to a standard raise size you become harder to play against. Of course you have also to not let yourself get too attached to a decent hand when they are showing you they have a monster.

I also wouldn't get too attached to your record of never going out early - in the end that kind of stat doesn't matter too much, it's more about the wins and cashes - which as i say you're already doing well at.
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-18-2018 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldgoat
Is this Harrington ? - I'm not sure many people agree with him these days - The point is that if you have weak players who call raises with trash and probably get too attached to one pair hands there are lots of hands that become profitable particularly IP. You don't have to go wild. If you stick to a standard raise size you become harder to play against. Of course you have also to not let yourself get too attached to a decent hand when they are showing you they have a monster.

I also wouldn't get too attached to your record of never going out early - in the end that kind of stat doesn't matter too much, it's more about the wins and cashes - which as i say you're already doing well at.
Harrington and Jonathan Little. I suppose I should do more research and look into what others have to say, although Little's book was published only a few months ago. Do you have anything in particular I should read?

Thank you by the way. I suppose I'm doing a lot better than I perceive how I'm doing, regardless of the competition.
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-18-2018 , 11:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
Harrington and Jonathan Little. I suppose I should do more research and look into what others have to say, although Little's book was published only a few months ago. Do you have anything in particular I should read?

Thank you by the way. I suppose I'm doing a lot better than I perceive how I'm doing, regardless of the competition.
You also have to realize that tourneys as deep as this one aren't very common, so that's not what these pros are talking about. Tight early is correct in most tourneys where you're starting say 75-125bb deep. When you start 1000bb deep, that's a different kettle of fish.

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Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-19-2018 , 12:39 AM
Agree with other posters. I actually am in Michigan, in the Detroit area. Curious where you're playing this tourney (not so I can come play, as I'm disabled and don't get out to play much anymore, I'm just curious where a tourney worth that kind of set-up is being held. Is it a charity room?) Thanks, and good luck.
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-19-2018 , 12:41 AM
Also, love your logo I'm a Michigan grad. Go Blue!
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-19-2018 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MamaSaid_KYO
Also, love your logo I'm a Michigan grad. Go Blue!
Go Blue! I'm a Wolverine myself. The tournaments are held at Momo's poker room in Taylor. I'm sorry that your disability restricts how often you can play .
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-19-2018 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
Go Blue! I'm a Wolverine myself. The tournaments are held at Momo's poker room in Taylor. I'm sorry that your disability restricts how often you can play .
Ok, I've heard of that place but never played there. I'm in Farmington, used to play at the Electric Stick in Westland a lot before it burned down. I still get out and play at least once a month and host games at my place, but it's just a bigger hassle in my wheelchair. Did play in a WSOP league until this year, still play online with that group once in a while, plus live tourneys twice a year. Oh, and a 1986 Michigan grad--looking forward to March Madness. Good luck in your tourneys!
Have I been getting unlucky, or am I making bad MTT errors? Quote
02-19-2018 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MamaSaid_KYO
Ok, I've heard of that place but never played there. I'm in Farmington, used to play at the Electric Stick in Westland a lot before it burned down. I still get out and play at least once a month and host games at my place, but it's just a bigger hassle in my wheelchair. Did play in a WSOP league until this year, still play online with that group once in a while, plus live tourneys twice a year. Oh, and a 1986 Michigan grad--looking forward to March Madness. Good luck in your tourneys!
I play there quite frequently, they're pretty good tournaments. I recommend Doc's Sports Retreat or Wintergarden in Livonia when you can get out. I'm actually class of 2020 at Michigan, hoping the team can make another run & thank you!
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