Hi.

Was playing a $150 live tournament this weekend.

We are 10 players left, playing two tables. 6 places are paid.

The blinds are 8.000/16.000 with an 8.000 button ante. The average stack is around 400.000 (25bb). I'm in the small blind with a stack size of around 400.000 with AQ.

The action is folded to the button. Button has a stack a little above average of around 450k.

Button raises to 40k.

Hero?

This maybe a stupid question, but I wonder what is the best line to take at this point with AQ in the small blind with 25 big blinds behind. I imagine that the standard play is to 3-bet to around 100k.

However, I wondering if the there are some valid reason to push all in at this point. 3-betting to 100k leaving me around 300k behind (18bb) and I feel this can be quite tricky to play post-flop if I don't connect with the flop as I imagine I should c-bet quite often on the flop.
On the other hand, if I push all in I risk 400k to win 72k witch does not make much sense to me.

The button has played tight and has not opened that many pots from the button previously in the tournament.

So, is a push all in to risky in this spot? If I 3-bet to 100k what should be our general move on the flop?

Unless button is a wild 4 bettor (and it doesn't sound like he is) you should just shove 25 bbs here. If you had 30-35 bbs then 3 bet -call is better likely, but with 25 bbs, you can't make it a good size to discourage him from seeing a flop with hands that have good equity VS you. you want to make it around 3x his bet or bigger usually, but 25 bbs doesn't allow you to do that whilst still giving him the illusion of fold equity. SO shove and hope; its all you can do sometimes.

About your concern that the B is a tightish player you think; remember that especially in live poker you dont often have a large enough sample size to say this kind of thing with much confiedence. In addition, even tight players know they are supposed to open wider on the button - is he really going to look down at j9s and open fold? i doubt it. And if he does raise say between 15-25% of hands on the B, then you will make $$$ with this shove- maybe he'll even look you up with worse

Whenever your stack is about 10x or less than the bet size, shoving is always a valid option.

Here I would definitely 3 bet. The options are to 100k or shove. Against an aggressive player who would 4 bet often, I would opt for the smaller 3 bet and leave him room to try a 4 bet bluff.

Against this player, I think shoving is better.

You have to remember, shoving is the play with the least variance. The play mentioned above 3 bet to 100k and call a shove has more variance since the opponent can shove/bluff with hands like J9s and hit.

Additionally, you are OOP 3 betting small and missing the flop will put you in enough terrible spots post flop that shoving is better.

If you shove the only hands you would hate to see him turn over are QQ+ and AK. Against everything else, you are either beating or have 50%ish equity. Additionally, he should probably call off with AJ/AT/KQ as well as the middle pairs. Making a shove highly profitable.

As for reads, how many opportunities have you had to see this player's chances to open from the button. Maybe 5? That may be high. I remember MTTs, I did not get many chances at all in a single day to open steal from the button. 2 or 3 maybe until we got short handed. But anyway, even a tight player from the button is raising at least 20% of hands.

Let's say he is opening 20% and calling off 7%. This is the math of that shove:

65% * 72k + 35%[(824k * 43%) - 392k] = 33.6k profit

A normal raise from the SB for me would be at least 120,000 to compensate for being OOP. I would raise to 100,000 only in position given the stack sizes.

I would shove this here. Sometimes you are going to see AK. I think you just win without a flop vs AT/AJ most of the time because you aren't short stacked. And against pairs like 99-JJ you just take your chances. Villain isn't always calling with pairs so you save yourself a catastrophe when you don't hit and villain calls your flop bet.

Maybe on the stone cold bubble I just call.

If the Button player has shown the ability to open the BTN/CO on folded around pots in the past this is a snap shove for me. If he's got a bigger hand than a flip, so be it.

Competent players should be raising most playable hands (40-50%+ imo) on the BTN with 32k in potentially dead money available.

AQ against a late position raise you are pretty much ahead of his range unless hes a nit, either 3 bet for value or just jam if you are worried about getting 4 bet jammed.

I think shove, with 10 people left and directly on the avg stack with 25BB there is some merit in thinking about a fold if BTN is either a maniac or has shown a tight open range on the button.

Having two 3bet sizes in this spot seems like a good option. 3bet jam hands which run close in equity to hands he's likely to flat with positional advantage to a normal size 3bet.
Then with your really strong hands and a few bluffs, look to 3bet polar and go to the streets with like a 3bet to 110k.

^^^I think we're just a little too shallow here to have a 3 bet polarized range in the SB. Position wise it's very awkward.

This seems like a standard shove being OOP and I think shoving at these stack depths it looks a little weaker.

Obv shove is printing us money and is low variance esp vs a x2,5 open and pretty standard.
Stack sizes are a little bit awkward, but imo (even tho i don´t have a lot experience playing live, in those small/medium buy-ins that i played, and even in some 1k´s+) people are not folding pre vs 3bet, and is always nice to dominate his calling range, which includes A4s+, QTs+,AQo-ATo,QJo (even a nit opens those on BU), range that doesn´t call our shove.
Our image does come into play here, but I say let´s exploit those weak opp in a loldonkament, and stop being so ´´standard´´. (i´ll make it 95k)

Ok, lets say we make a 3-bet to around 95-110k. How would you play this post-flop? Are we going to open shove any flop in this case? I believe we have to even tho we hate most flops we don't hit.

Do you believe that Villains calling range from a 3-bet to 100k is that much different from his range calling our shove?

Yes I think with the added incentive that he will play the flop in position vs your 3 bet I think his calling range can be a bit wider as opposed to if you shoved. I would just not 3 bet this hand because you would basically have to shove any flop and we don't really want that. Maximize your fold equity and shove.

I agree. If I can add a question here. What do think our 3-bet range should be given a normal size 3 bet of around 100-120k?

I mean, we would not shove our really strong hands here AA and KK. But lets say hands like TT, JJ and maybe also QQ. Would you shove these hands as well in this spot? Could we also shove hands like AA and KK to balance our range?

Except for V´image we don´t have a lot of info, neither ours?