Villain is 8/0/0 across 14 hands, is this a good spot to lead turn as he is likely range betting flop?

- 150/300 Ante 40 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 51.88 BB
BTN: 176.94 BB
SB: 33.55 BB
Hero (BB): 33.99 BB
UTG: 23.56 BB
UTG+1: 50.73 BB
MP: 25.09 BB
MP+1: 34.23 BB
MP+2: 30.75 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 9 T

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (5.7 BB, 2 players) Q 2 8
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 1.72 BB, Hero calls 1.72 BB

Turn: (9.14 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, ???

Imo good spot to lead. In BB we should connect more with this board than PF raiser. Bluff cards on river are all clubs and cards that appear to complete straight, obv value when we hit double gutter.

Nope x/f turn


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I don’t think you want to fold double gutter on turn, float on fop seems fine. Check call turn for any reasonable size.

I missed the dibble gutter OTT x/c is good. Could x/r flop


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fold flop?
you're OOP and you've got nothing

might be a call if there was a spade, still wouldn't hate the fold with only one spade

A lot of people seem to think people are betting range on flops when they def aren't likely to be doing that.

Range for Mp2 will have AJo/KJs/9Ts/77 etc. I doubt they're just betting 77 type hands here 100%.

If his range is that wide on the flop then c/r your gutter which has virtually 0 showdown value instead.

I don't think we can fold getting like 3.5-1 on the flop. We can turn gin or hit cards that improve our range enough to justify it. It also helps give us hands that will call flop/give up turn.

Like anytime we're calling we need hands that do a variety of things on future streets otherwise villains can exploit us.

Think about if we never have hands that give up on the turn; villain will never double barrel bluff us.

If we never flat value to continue on the turn with etc; villain can double barrel us with impunity.

We could do that with stuff like T9, 87, 76, 66 and lower pairs

I'm actually not sure if I agree with the statement that we should have hands in our range that give up on the turn.
Your argument is that if we don't, villain will never double barrel bluff us, but I'm not sure if that's reason enough to justify calling with pretty terrible hands like this one.

The pot odds aren't anywhere close to what we need either.

We may have implied odds, but stacks are pretty shallow and villain might slow down if a J comes.

That's all assuming villain is a capable opponent.
It's way more likely villain is just a fish splashing around betting his hands for value a large amount of the time.
Fish don't do fancy double barrels often, they do pay off big bets so that might help.

I'd have to agree this is a x/r or fold flop