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FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo?

07-02-2017 , 10:55 AM
So here is a spot where I was really unsure. It is the final table bubble, I'm chipleader. Villian has not been playing crazy, so what do I do? I figure I am flipping most of the time and way behind some times.

PokerStars - 4500/9000 Ante 1125 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 23.08 BB (VPIP: 16.09, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.88, Hands: 88)
CO: 12.34 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (BTN): 41.9 BB
SB: 19.35 BB (VPIP: 25.45, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
BB: 33.85 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 22.39, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 70)

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.32 BB, SB raises to 19.22 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero ???
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-02-2017 , 11:38 AM
I think we might be flipping here, but could be the case he's having worse Ax type of hands (like all suited aces, 22+ ofcourse)

Anyway - I would call here, cause weŗe having some good equity here, imo. I wouldnt lay down AQ here.

I assume his range could be smth like this
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-02-2017 , 11:43 AM
That's about the range I gave villian, perhapst only 55+ and AJo+ but it doesn't matter. What about the fact that it is the final table bubble? Call und maybe loose and get to the FT as 5th or 6th or fold and be 1st or second at the FT?
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-02-2017 , 11:51 AM
I'd still call here and go for max value. (but would like to hear more answers from others)
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-02-2017 , 01:38 PM
I'd call, 40BB is nice but 60BB is nicer.
No reason to put the SB on QQ+ here.
It boils down to your value of your stack. Did you earn your stack to be able to take this chance and survive either way? In 30 minutes you could be a 20BB stack anyway even if you fold this. I realize my analysis here is lacking in numbers and such, I would call here, but maybe fold if it was the other way around and you were the sb facing a button shove. Then there would be reason to fold and stay chip leader.


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FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-03-2017 , 03:42 AM
I think that ranging of V is too tight and skewed towards pairs - If V is shoving 55 why not KQ or AT?
We should be significantly ahead - pretty clear call.
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-03-2017 , 06:38 AM
Think it also comes down to gameflow and table image. If you've been a dominating chip leader, opening a lot of pots, three betting frequently and exerting pressure on the smaller stacks then the SB may fight back with a wider range than if you have been less aggressive. His stack is in the sweet spot where he can resteal with a wide range (in the right circumstances) - and his stats indicate that he's pretty aggressive and likely to be aware of this

In the first case (where he perceives your range to be widest) I'm way more likely to call, in the second (where he perceives you to be more valuey) it's a bit more marginal but probably still a call
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-03-2017 , 02:38 PM
Thanks @all for your input! I was just wondering if ICM should in any way be a factor in a situation like that.

For those who care: I did call, villian showed 88 and he won. Got to the FT as 7 of 9, went out as 8th.
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-03-2017 , 04:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nixie Bobtie
Think it also comes down to gameflow and table image.
I agree with this and would use it to construct my opponent's range. Me personally, I'm generally happy to get it in here without good reason to believe their range is narrower than any ace or medium pairs.
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-03-2017 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nixie Bobtie
Think it also comes down to gameflow and table image. If you've been a dominating chip leader, opening a lot of pots, three betting frequently and exerting pressure on the smaller stacks then the SB may fight back with a wider range than if you have been less aggressive. His stack is in the sweet spot where he can resteal with a wide range (in the right circumstances) - and his stats indicate that he's pretty aggressive and likely to be aware of this

In the first case (where he perceives your range to be widest) I'm way more likely to call, in the second (where he perceives you to be more valuey) it's a bit more marginal but probably still a call
I like this and completely agree
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-04-2017 , 04:19 AM
Okay, I totally agree with it and I am playing accordingly.

One big problem though: on such small stakes (1$ to 5$) how many players pay attention to stuff like table image and restealing? I really have problems juding my opponents skill level. What do you guys think, do most players on those limits think about stuff like that or are most just fish? Most of the time I have no stats on villians, so what to do? What level do I put unknown villians on? Would really like some input on this!
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-04-2017 , 07:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by elcid
Okay, I totally agree with it and I am playing accordingly.

One big problem though: on such small stakes (1$ to 5$) how many players pay attention to stuff like table image and restealing? I really have problems juding my opponents skill level. What do you guys think, do most players on those limits think about stuff like that or are most just fish? Most of the time I have no stats on villians, so what to do? What level do I put unknown villians on? Would really like some input on this!
use your hud for stats and opponents tendencies.
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-06-2017 , 04:23 PM
Trivial call. Nothing you can really do since it's so high up in your range and as the chip leader you should have a wider range in general on the ft bubble. Could be different if he covered you but since you'll have 20bbs left still.
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-06-2017 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by elcid
Okay, I totally agree with it and I am playing accordingly.

One big problem though: on such small stakes (1$ to 5$) how many players pay attention to stuff like table image and restealing? I really have problems juding my opponents skill level. What do you guys think, do most players on those limits think about stuff like that or are most just fish? Most of the time I have no stats on villians, so what to do? What level do I put unknown villians on? Would really like some input on this!


Hmm. Be careful not to wander too far from the correct play, just because your opponents are generally not the most observant skilled opposition. Generally, weaker players call too much with weak hands or shove too much with draws, to avoid hard decisions on the turn, for instance. Stay centered in your game and they will just have the worst of it more often than you.

If you have no stats, then a checkraise or a 4 bet from a random player is a sign of strength, meaning they really like the cards they have. Don't try to overthink it too much at the small buy in levels.

Rob


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FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-07-2017 , 05:07 AM
So I just just play my game if villian is unknown?

I still would like to know what you guys believe the average skill level on those limits is like. Do players even think about stuff like restaeling and the fact, that the chipleader should but the other players under a lot pressure?
FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-07-2017 , 09:13 AM
The thing is, correct poker is not always linked to a correct understanding of the game. A big stack might put pressure on the small stacks because of a keen understanding of ICM, or simply because having a big stack and making big bets is fun, and most players enjoy fun. So, if you understand ICM, and the others do not, it does not change the fact that ICM is a thing, and if you are familiar with it you will play better than a random who does not understand.

Rob


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FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote
07-07-2017 , 10:21 AM
If I'm SB I'm going to be shoving fairly wide there because I don't think you'll risk half your stack and this is a prime BTN steal spot. My shoving range would include any pair, any suited Ace because of the blocker, and some good Broadways (AJ/KQs and maybe even hands like KJs/KTs/QJs).

Here's the problem: against even a range that wide you're only 50%. You would need SB to be on a very wide resteal here to be ahead there. In real time I might make the call but with the range analysis I just did, I don't think it's the right play. Holding a chip lead on the final table bubble is better than risking half your stack to gain a bigger chip lead. If I had 20bb there, I'd make the call for sure.

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FT Bubble: Call 20 BB 3Bet shove with AQo? Quote

      
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