I can only assume this clown is doing this with KK+ ? But there hadn't been crazy 3betting, so no reasoning for V to think there would likely be a late raise vs an EP open. Am I supposed to fold to the 25BB 4bet here?


PokerStars - 40/80 Ante 10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 109.54 BB
MP: 79.61 BB
MP+1: 48.54 BB
MP+2: 144.44 BB
CO: 231.06 BB
BTN: 51.25 BB
SB: 80.13 BB
Hero (BB): 54.21 BB
UTG: 62.38 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has J J

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 13.13 BB, fold, MP+2 raises to 25 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 11.88 BB

Flop: (57.13 BB, 2 players) K 8 9
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 31.25 BB, fold

Yeah easy fold. I'm almost tempted to fold to the 4 bet as this is almost always QQ +

I'm pretty sure you are right.

Yup, especially since the 4b is a minraise. Nobody does that with a hand you beat.

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At what stack depth would we be ok with set mining?

Pot is 45bb coming back around after the 4bet - effective stack is a further 41bb - so potential win of 74bb (best case, 45bb+ unmatched 29bb) for a 12bb call - so getting roughly 6:1 implied odds on very optimistic assumptions (always win max when hit, never lose anything otherwise). These are are insufficient

I know some players (Ben Hayles for example) quote 15x cover as a rule of thumb. In this case it would mean that we would be needing an effective stack of approx 200bb - i.e. this is never a call in all but the deepest tournament situations. Plus, being OOP against a range that we are pretty confident is ultra premium, 15x should arguably be increased in this case, so maybe even higher than 200bb

But at the same time it doesn't feel right that this is *never* a call (i.e. there isn't a stack depth at which it can work) as JJ is still a very good hand. But then again we have reduced it to nothing more than a drawing hand I guess

Have I got this wrong?

JJ isn't a very good hand if you can put your opponent on a top 3% hand based on his action. As you said you don't have the odds to set-mine, so you're basically praying for a 10-high flop. And even then you won't be too comfortable if villain is putting chips in the pot.

This is one of those spots where it feels weak to fold but calling is super high risk, low reward. Sometimes big folds are as important as big calls.

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I think there is some incomplete information here as we don't know what the buy-in for this tournament is. It might have an effect on what villains can make this play with?

This must be included in a hand like this... I don't think this would happen almost ever in a 20+ tourey, but this happens a lot in small stakes. Don't think villain has QQ in his range as it's a very bad hand to trap as a lot of flops have an overcard. So I think his range is like KK+ and then AQo sometimes and 99 and 1010. If you've been squeezing a lot in these types of situations villain could think you're over bluffing and that would explain the min raise. You're doing very badly against this range so you should fold flop as you did (because we get a very good price)

Gotta fold in that spot. Might consider flatting pre sometimes as well although that many ways to the flop isn't the best as you probably know. I like the comment about buy in to assign ranges better. At smaller buy ins I can see some AQ, etc. doing this.