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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 02-19-2019, 04:51 PM   #1
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 132
Folding river with AQ

-We don't block FD, and if we raise 66 and AJ on the flop or turn do we have to call this river with this combo?

PokerStars - 30/60 Ante 7 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 2,626 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.24, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 50)
MP+1: 3,175 (VPIP: 16.98, PFR: 18.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 53)
CO: 2,857 (VPIP: 37.93, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 21.43, Hands: 29)
Hero (BTN): 4,941
SB: 2,126 (VPIP: 22.61, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 116)
BB: 3,926 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 20)
UTG: 2,972 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
UTG+1: 1,556 (VPIP: 45.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 20)

8 players post ante of 7, SB posts SB 30, BB posts BB 60

Pre Flop: (pot: 146) Hero has Q A

fold, fold, MP raises to 132, fold, fold, Hero calls 132, fold, fold

Flop: (410, 2 players) A J 6
MP bets 209, Hero calls 209

Turn: (828, 2 players) 8
MP bets 660, Hero calls 660

River: (2,148, 2 players) 5
MP bets 1,618 and is all-in, Hero calls 1,618

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Old 02-19-2019, 11:54 PM   #2
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 9
Re: Folding river with AQ

I think you've under-rep'd your hand pre-flop and should be raising a good amount despite Villain being one of the tightest on the table.

I don't mind the flats throughout the hand because a 3-barrel bluff shouldn't be in his playbook if you start getting aggressive and you want to keep that in his repertoire (unless he just doesn't do that). You beat enough Ax that will try for value from draws, Jx, worse Ax but he shoves river so there's no point from his PoV if you have a busted draw. If I were him I'd check river w/Ax and try to bluff catch busted draws. To me, this line just doesn't feel like KK or Ax (maybe AT) unless he's confident you're calling off with Jx or worse Ax.
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Old 02-20-2019, 12:31 AM   #3
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Re: Folding river with AQ

You should be 3b for value preflop and to price out the blinds. As played calling seems fine. He should have plenty of missed stuff and can value bet ATs still.
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Old 02-20-2019, 11:37 AM   #4
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Re: Folding river with AQ

3b pre, I'd rather not play AQ multiway.

River he has to realize you got there with Ax or a draw so I don't think he has many bluffs at all there. I think you'll see AK/AJ very often here. Plus the other 2p combos.

In micro stakes you're better off giving players credit and folding the river in these spots than making a thin call.
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Old 02-20-2019, 01:07 PM   #5
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Re: Folding river with AQ

To answer your original question, do we have to call this on the river? If we're worried that our opponent is playing anything like GTO, then yes, absolutely you have to call this on the river. However, I think at low stakes we can make a very exploitable but also very exploitative fold. Yes, they can pretty much barrel you off anything if you're folding AQ here, but are they really running triple barrel bluffs here that often? Granted, if he has KQhh and bet the flop and turn he might feel obligated to put in that third barrel but I think the vast majority of players, low stakes or otherwise aren't just barreling off here with 100% of their range because they crush you range v range. If you're worried that's happening, then obviously stop raising your nutted hands and probably over compensate in the other direction and just close your eyes and click call with any A.
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:07 AM   #6
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Re: Folding river with AQ

In game I probably call because I has top pair but the strong case for folding has been made by the two posts above.

What I dont like is the presence of the J. We were hoping he had AJ. AJ is probably the worst bare A I can see the average 20/12 tripling and now thats 2p. These guys dont bluff enough to incentivise pure bluff-catching.
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Old 02-21-2019, 08:21 PM   #7
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Re: Folding river with AQ

Agree with 3b pre,

AP flop/turn is std, river I find they usually have it in these types of spots, in a vac its not a great spot for him to bluff. We have called twice on A high board with draw there, our range largely consists of Ax which will have a tough time folding on river when the draw has bricked. Only value hand we beat is AT but this may x river some % when AK doesn't. Sure we don't block hearts, but does this pull the trigger often on this dangerous board with the line we have taken?

Last edited by wowsooooted; 02-21-2019 at 08:32 PM. Reason: #TheyAlwaysHaveIt
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