I think you've under-rep'd your hand pre-flop and should be raising a good amount despite Villain being one of the tightest on the table.
I don't mind the flats throughout the hand because a 3-barrel bluff shouldn't be in his playbook if you start getting aggressive and you want to keep that in his repertoire (unless he just doesn't do that). You beat enough Ax that will try for value from draws, Jx, worse Ax but he shoves river so there's no point from his PoV if you have a busted draw. If I were him I'd check river w/Ax and try to bluff catch busted draws. To me, this line just doesn't feel like KK or Ax (maybe AT) unless he's confident you're calling off with Jx or worse Ax.
You should be 3b for value preflop and to price out the blinds. As played calling seems fine. He should have plenty of missed stuff and can value bet ATs still.
River he has to realize you got there with Ax or a draw so I don't think he has many bluffs at all there. I think you'll see AK/AJ very often here. Plus the other 2p combos.
In micro stakes you're better off giving players credit and folding the river in these spots than making a thin call.
To answer your original question, do we have to call this on the river? If we're worried that our opponent is playing anything like GTO, then yes, absolutely you have to call this on the river. However, I think at low stakes we can make a very exploitable but also very exploitative fold. Yes, they can pretty much barrel you off anything if you're folding AQ here, but are they really running triple barrel bluffs here that often? Granted, if he has KQhh and bet the flop and turn he might feel obligated to put in that third barrel but I think the vast majority of players, low stakes or otherwise aren't just barreling off here with 100% of their range because they crush you range v range. If you're worried that's happening, then obviously stop raising your nutted hands and probably over compensate in the other direction and just close your eyes and click call with any A.
In game I probably call because I has top pair but the strong case for folding has been made by the two posts above.
What I dont like is the presence of the J. We were hoping he had AJ. AJ is probably the worst bare A I can see the average 20/12 tripling and now thats 2p. These guys dont bluff enough to incentivise pure bluff-catching.
AP flop/turn is std, river I find they usually have it in these types of spots, in a vac its not a great spot for him to bluff. We have called twice on A high board with draw there, our range largely consists of Ax which will have a tough time folding on river when the draw has bricked. Only value hand we beat is AT but this may x river some % when AK doesn't. Sure we don't block hearts, but does this pull the trigger often on this dangerous board with the line we have taken?
Last edited by wowsooooted; 02-21-2019 at 08:32 PM.
Reason: #TheyAlwaysHaveIt