The Ac and Ah are on the board, and the As is in Hero's hand, so he would have to be doing that with Axdd - bare overcards on that flop and the only Ace left in the deck. If he did, I don't think he would bet so small because he would want folds. The fact that it's multiway makes a big difference too. But let's suppose he does make that move on the flop. Do you think he minraises the turn with Ax? Wouldn't he be worried that Hero hit the Ace when he donks into two players? So what would a minraise accomplish? And if he doesn't think Hero hit the Ace and he's raising to protect against the two flush draws, why would he turn his trip Aces into a bluff by betting when one of the flush draws hits on the river?

u seem to think that u can get a lot value here with betting while i think that there is more value in checking

what do we get with leading here with this specific sizing ?
easy decision for our opponent. he ll fold all stabby hands that missed and procede with Ax+, some stubborn 9x and FDs, will raise 2p+ and some of his FDs so as u see when we lead we allow our villain to not make a mistake, while when we check he will make ton of them in most of the cases.

if we lead all of our aces here then we're in check call(fold) turn and check fold river 100% time mode with our range. have in mind that we still have 33 44 66 77 88 89s or whatever is our checking range OTF that need some protection so i keep checking all my aces so villains couldnt rape me when i check

it doesnt seem to me that we need a lot of protection when A turn comes, i mean 3rd suited card will come otr close to 20% of the time and that doesnt mean it's a bad thing neccessary.

im in a bit of a hurry so cant type more detailed atm but that's my simplified opinion

If he ran a multi-street bluff to get me to flop trips because he considered me capped at AK (I would check AA, A2, A5 > 0% ) then frankly he deserved the pot.

u re still trying to make assumptions about how will some random unknown guy think which might keep resulting in you making terible mistakes like this one.

If they don't make calling mistakes in 2.2s then how come I make like 3 million BB/100 when I barrel off AK on Kxxxx? I expect him to call with the usual junk, any pair, any draw, even hopeless gutshots. River where I plan to bet again he may start folding some hands but he's looking me up with any Ace, any flopped top pair/overpair is likely hanging around out of entitlement.

Or I can check to him, and play bluffcatcher against a population which underbluffs. On the contrary I believe he makes less betting mistakes. My range is clearly Ax heavy. He'll value own himself with worse Ax but mostly he'll check behind with hands I beat and continue betting hands that can beat Ax while I call down like a doofus. You don't make 3 million BB/100 bluff-catching in micros.

Also, I don't need to lead with all my Ax. ATs and the like can keep checking.

Good debate anyway and thanks all. Glad this hand provoked disagreement.

He can discount flushes from my range because I didn't cbet flop but I think that would be giving him too much credit.

Once I call the turn raise he will suddenly bring flushes back into my range because people like flatting raises with draws.

Therefore I'm not sure he would jam river with trips IP. He's likely to consider it thin.

Excellent post.

Everybody talks about blockers, Ax is way more blocked than the average "you block flushes because you have the Td" logic. If ever there was a time to discount something this is it.

you should be checking your whole range on the turn, we induce bets from worse and keep all his bluffs in. Leading here just telegraphs your hand.

Our plan should have been to call twice once the turn rolls off, a lead puts you in a position to get raised both on turn and river if we go for another bet, by calling we cap both streets at one bet a piece