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Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips

10-22-2017 , 01:08 PM
$2.2 buy in.
Thoughts on line (eg. turn donk)?
What do we do on the river?

PokerStars - 125/250 Ante 30 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 6.31 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 9.26, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 54)
SB: 31.4 BB (VPIP: 3.77, PFR: 3.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
BB: 102.05 BB (VPIP: 42.31, PFR: 28.85, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 54)
UTG: 43.25 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 9.43, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 54)
UTG+1: 34.46 BB (VPIP: 26.42, PFR: 13.21, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 54)
Hero (MP): 37.16 BB
MP+1: 75.91 BB (VPIP: 21.82, PFR: 7.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
MP+2: 66.77 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 1.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
CO: 45.59 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.25 BB, MP+1 calls 2.25 BB, fold, CO calls 2.25 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (9.32 BB, 3 players) 5 9 2
Hero checks, MP+1 checks, CO bets 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, MP+1 calls 2 BB

Turn: (15.32 BB, 3 players) A
Hero bets 6.28 BB, fold, CO raises to 12.57 BB, Hero calls 6.28 BB

River: (40.46 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks, CO bets 20 BB, fold

CO wins 40.46 BB
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-08-2017 , 05:08 AM
Bumpy
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-08-2017 , 09:52 AM
This is sick. But I think I'm calling. We put half our stack in the pot. CO could have a smaller A. The min bet on the flop makes sense for A high. The re-raise on the turn could be him thinking you just took a shot at the pot with a scare card, but he has an A and isn't going away. River is another A. I'm not buying a flush. I'd put him on ATo, AJo, or something like that. AK would have likely 4bet pre. A5 is concerning. There is also potential that he flopped a set and made a boat on the river. But I think a set would have checked the flop and called the turn. So there are four hands we lose to: 22, 55, 99, and A5. In a tournament, it's hard to let half our stack go. We have great showdown value. Let's see what he's got and if he has us beat... unlucky.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-08-2017 , 09:55 AM
Weird. Tiny donkbets are usually draws but he's making a tiny bet in position. So that increases the likelihood of a big hand trying to juice the pot. And on that flop the only big hand is a set.

Then you bet the Ace and he raises, figuring you connected with the Ace and there are two flush draws out there so time to raise for value.

Half pot bet after you check the river trying to get a call with the boat. Yup, looks a lot like 99/55/22.

Club draw also got there but he didn't play the turn like a draw. I thought maybe Axcc but then the Ac hits on the river. Can't see a worse Ace played this way either.

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Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-08-2017 , 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish'n'chips
This is sick. But I think I'm calling. We put half our stack in the pot. CO could have a smaller A. The min bet on the flop makes sense for A high... I'd put him on ATo, AJo, or something like that.
You really think he's betting 2bb into 9bb on that flop with a naked Ax? Very, very unlikely.

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Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-08-2017 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul
You really think he's betting 2bb into 9bb on that flop with a naked Ax? Very, very unlikely.
Good point. When I first read the hand, it screamed set on the flop. But then I started thinking about Ax hands and probably talked myself into a call. An Ax would likely check or bet half pot on the flop to try and take it with such a dry board. You're most likely right.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-08-2017 , 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish'n'chips
Good point. When I first read the hand, it screamed set on the flop. But then I started thinking about Ax hands and probably talked myself into a call. An Ax would likely check or bet half pot on the flop to try and take it with such a dry board. You're most likely right.
When constructing ranges you have to start from preflop and narrow as you go based on the action. If you get to a decision point and then start thinking about what he could have, you'll talk yourself into all sorts of things. This is probably one of the most important things I've learned that has improved my game.

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Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-08-2017 , 09:31 PM
You have to call a half pot bet on the river. You only need to be right 1/4 times.

Turn donk didn't make sense. You fold out his bluffs, which were the most likely holding, considering his flop bet size.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-08-2017 , 11:28 PM
I'd likely check the turn. If I bet, I'd bet bigger.

As played, you're in a tough spot and it's tough to say what I'd do in a $2 mtt vs. a laggy (likely fishy) type with only 17 hands...mainly because his line is so strange. He can show up with all kinds of weird hands here, so probably not folding.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 12:22 AM
i dont like this turn lead since it wont accomplish much. we would have pretty easy decision(s) if we just checked the turn.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 12:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish'n'chips
This is sick. But I think I'm calling. We put half our stack in the pot. CO could have a smaller A. The min bet on the flop makes sense for A high. The re-raise on the turn could be him thinking you just took a shot at the pot with a scare card, but he has an A and isn't going away. River is another A. I'm not buying a flush. I'd put him on ATo, AJo, or something like that. AK would have likely 4bet pre. A5 is concerning. There is also potential that he flopped a set and made a boat on the river. But I think a set would have checked the flop and called the turn. So there are four hands we lose to: 22, 55, 99, and A5. In a tournament, it's hard to let half our stack go. We have great showdown value. Let's see what he's got and if he has us beat... unlucky.
I busted soon after. I wasn't on monkey tilt but I think theres value in paying off if I'm gonna stew and get the money in fairly recklessly afterwards trying to get back
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 01:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RPMcMurphy
I'd likely check the turn. If I bet, I'd bet bigger.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomalice
i dont like this turn lead since it wont accomplish much. we would have pretty easy decision(s) if we just checked the turn.
The thinking behind the turn lead was that I expected him to check behind turn as it looks like I have Ax when I check call. He didn't deserve to see a river for 2bb with a range which contains some draws.

So basically I donked turn with range advantage. I'd also take that line with a few give ups in my range which I was planning to check fold until he made a silly bet, like 33-44 or maybe a heart-heart hand I didnt feel like cbetting or a couple overcards.

Problem is it now really looks like I have what I have which is why I gave him an incentive to continue with worse by offering him a price.

So when he raises it's now like "he knows I have an Ace, is he really daft enough to try to get me to fold top pair in a micro tourney?"

So basically I levelled myself with fancy play syndrome and should behave myself.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 01:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul
Weird. Tiny donkbets are usually draws but he's making a tiny bet in position. So that increases the likelihood of a big hand trying to juice the pot. And on that flop the only big hand is a set.

Then you bet the Ace and he raises, figuring you connected with the Ace and there are two flush draws out there so time to raise for value.

Half pot bet after you check the river trying to get a call with the boat. Yup, looks a lot like 99/55/22.

Club draw also got there but he didn't play the turn like a draw. I thought maybe Axcc but then the Ac hits on the river. Can't see a worse Ace played this way either.
I'm finding it tricky to range players in small stakes after checking. So many player just auto bet when checked to with every hand under the sun, which probably works out to be a fine exploit because most SS players don't balance their oop check range so almost all checks are too weak to defend.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 01:14 AM
call.

considering we don't block hh / cc combos he could potentially be raising, also at the $2 stake he could easily be raising w / any Ax for what is perceived as a value raise in his mind. after running calculations, when being LENIENT with his potential bluff combos, and considering the various worse Ax he could be raising w, we're good here 30.66% of the time.

this is as played. checking turn is MUCH better as previously mentioned
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 01:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZacHH87
call.

considering we don't block hh / cc combos he could potentially be raising, also at the $2 stake he could easily be raising w / any Ax for what is perceived as a value raise in his mind. after running calculations, when being LENIENT with his potential bluff combos, and considering the various worse Ax he could be raising w, we're good here 30.66% of the time.

this is as played. checking turn is MUCH better as previously mentioned
Thanks.

Don't you think by turn my hand is too good to play as a bluff-catcher? Which is what I do if I check turn.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 01:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bearer
The thinking behind the turn lead was that I expected him to check behind turn as it looks like I have Ax when I check call. He didn't deserve to see a river for 2bb with a range which contains some draws.

So basically I donked turn with range advantage. I'd also take that line with a few give ups in my range which I was planning to check fold until he made a silly bet, like 33-44 or maybe a heart-heart hand I didnt feel like cbetting or a couple overcards.

Problem is it now really looks like I have what I have which is why I gave him an incentive to continue with worse by offering him a price.

So when he raises it's now like "he knows I have an Ace, is he really daft enough to try to get me to fold top pair in a micro tourney?"

So basically I levelled myself with fancy play syndrome and should behave myself.
I'd rather lead turn if I turned a stronger hand like aces up or if i turned a lot of equity with some sort of combo draw, pair/fd, etc. I'd lead bigger with both.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 06:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stratify
You have to call a half pot bet on the river. You only need to be right 1/4 times.

Turn donk didn't make sense. You fold out his bluffs, which were the most likely holding, considering his flop bet size.
I find that when bet into that size, bluffs have significant equity, fair enough that would usually be oop like Darth_Maul said. He could have taken a free card if he was that desperate to see more cards.

But regardless, he's bet 2bb into 9bb so i'm not really licking my lips at the anticipation of him running a big bluff or value owning himself and he likely has some equity. Micro players are more prone to making calling mistakes (passive stations) than betting mistakes therefore I felt like he'd make more mistakes facing a bet then being checked to.

So if he wants to fold his air he can fold. At least I don't let him freeroll equity and realise for 2bb + another 2bb or a check back.

Last edited by bearer; 12-09-2017 at 06:52 AM.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bearer
The thinking behind the turn lead was that I expected him to check behind turn as it looks like I have Ax when I check call. He didn't deserve to see a river for 2bb with a range which contains some draws.

So basically I donked turn with range advantage. I'd also take that line with a few give ups in my range which I was planning to check fold until he made a silly bet, like 33-44 or maybe a heart-heart hand I didnt feel like cbetting or a couple overcards.

Problem is it now really looks like I have what I have which is why I gave him an incentive to continue with worse by offering him a price.

So when he raises it's now like "he knows I have an Ace, is he really daft enough to try to get me to fold top pair in a micro tourney?"

So basically I levelled myself with fancy play syndrome and should behave myself.
and betting 6bb into 15 will give him really tough time with his draws huh?

playing your range properly is the only way to go vs 70%+ random players fields. in some spots it can have slightly less EV in terms of that single hand but when we get OOL like this we're ought to make much bigger mistake on later streets. i wouldnt fold this river in my life...

also, if u lead all of your Axes here u re x folding in pretty big frequency. now i know range protection isnt that important vs weaker players but here in deed we have easy check call turn then check/evaluate river or if checked back pretty easy bet/fold river. dont think about blockers if ranges are wide

it's poker, sometimes u ll lose a hand, not much can be done about that.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZacHH87
call.

considering we don't block hh / cc combos he could potentially be raising, also at the $2 stake he could easily be raising w / any Ax for what is perceived as a value raise in his mind. after running calculations, when being LENIENT with his potential bluff combos, and considering the various worse Ax he could be raising w, we're good here 30.66% of the time.

this is as played. checking turn is MUCH better as previously mentioned
What Ax or hh hands do you think villain is betting 2bb into a 9bb pot multiway on that flop?

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Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul
What Ax or hh hands do you think villain is betting 2bb into a 9bb pot multiway on that flop?

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in not sure that we can discard/involve any hands from his range so when that is the case it's much better to just think about our own
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomalice
in not sure that we can discard/involve any hands from his range so when that is the case it's much better to just think about our own
Based on what, the fact that it's a $2 tourney?

Villain has made some very specific plays in this hand that suggest a particular range: (1) calling and not 3-betting pre; (2) betting 2bb into a 9bb pot in position multiway on a low flush draw flop; (3) min-raising Hero's donkbet on the turn when an Ace hits; (4) betting half pot and putting Hero all in on a river card that both pairs the board and completes a flush.

I suppose if you want to ignore all this and base your decision on the "$2 players can have literally anything," that's up to you. I prefer to give players credit for having the range they represent until I have reason to do otherwise.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 01:45 PM
im just saying that he might bet 2bb with whatever suited or unsuited ace that he flatted ( he can flat A7o or whatever there ) and that we shouldnt make some big assumptions in trying to narrow it down altough i agree with your way of thinking
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 02:09 PM
I think V could take this line with ATs or Axs. Low cards on the board after a min-raise and it gets checked to him. So he throws a min bet out thinking his A high is ok. Turn comes an A and he re-raises. River is another A and he doubts Hero could have an A because he's looking at 3 of them, especially since Hero checked, so he bets half pot.

I still like calling.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomalice
we have easy check call turn then check/evaluate river or if checked back pretty easy bet/fold river. dont think about blockers if ranges are wide.
See its this evaluate river thing. I'm the one with a diciplined range that opened ep, that has all the big Aces. Can you appreciate my ingination at me being locked into a cowering check-call 0ev bluffcatcher type game because a wide player took a 2bb ip flop stab? I have the nuts fook him, let him do the umming and ahhing and evaluating.

You say if he check backs turn suddenly I'm allowed to start feeling good about my hand again and can come out betting river. Well to me a 2bb bet is similar to a check.

Now after he raises turn he has cracked the whip and I now am reduced to a bluff-catcher.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomalice
playing your range properly is the only way to go vs 70%+ random players fields.
I'm a man from Mars and I played my first hand of poker this morning. Explain to me why he warrants me snap checking turn to him?
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote
12-09-2017 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bearer

I'm a man from Mars and I played my first hand of poker this morning. Explain to me why he warrants me snap checking turn to him?
so u dont end up folding top of the top of your range otr in a spot where u gotta be good one time in four.
Flummoxed with AQ and rivered trips Quote

      
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