Flop a full house and feel I probably took the worst line here of check raising turn as looks very strong.
X raising flop also seems too strong. Do we just lead turn and river here in this spot?
-Felt I should have checked the river as his AJ gets there too. But close as QJ/JT might call a jam but not shove themselves when checked to on the river?

PokerStars - 200/400 Ante 50 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 10,969 (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BTN: 6,370 (VPIP: 48.48, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
SB: 6,611 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (BB): 14,568
UTG: 4,314 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
UTG+1: 12,018 (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 33)
MP: 7,338 (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 33)
MP+1: 20,090 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 30.30, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 33)

8 players post ante of 50, SB posts SB 200, Hero posts BB 400

Pre Flop: (pot: 1,000) Hero has 3 3

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 800, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 400

Flop: (2,200, 2 players) 3 J J
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 800, Hero calls 800

Turn: (3,800, 2 players) K
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 1,254, Hero raises to 4,500, MP+1 calls 3,246

River: (12,800, 2 players) A
Hero bets 8,418 and is all-in, MP+1 calls 8,418

x/r Flop with our combo is okay, we want to have a x/r-range against that sizing and we're not blocking any Jx.
You can make a case for constructing a donkingrange OTT which is not gonna be that easy though. x/r here is fine, River obv sucks but Villain might as well have some kind of 2nd-best hand now

x/r the flop sometimes makes sense, but check calling is certainly fine. Turn seems standard although donking could make sense against certain opponents.

The river is a very interesting spot. If we check and are bet into we are effectively beating only bluffs. QJ may bet for value, but it's by no means automatic. If we check here and are shoved on, I think we can make a solid case for folding.

The value range beating us includes AA, KK, JJ, KJ, AJ and maybe QT (I can't see it getting here). If we are generous we can include QJ, JT, AK and random horrible "value" in the hands that are bet and we can beat. We will have to heavily discount these combos though since not all will bet.

It sucks to fold a boat, but I think the math doesn't work out for us here. Shoving to get called by QJ or JT seems a little to ambitious. I would hope for a check check here and check fold if shoved on.

You played it fine. No one's looking to fold boats 40 bbs deep. You're getting stacked by boats anyways, betting out on the river assures that you're stacking straights and trips.

Villain has a straight here maybe 1 time out of 1000.

There are also very few trips that the villain can have. It's a very tough hand to get away from in the moment, but folding seems superior.

Ok, let's construct villain's range.

He has 19 combos that beat us. He has all 9 combos of AK which I'm pretty sure will play exactly this way up to the river. There's 8 combos of Axss and we'll give him 6 of them. He has QTss certainly, and of the other 15 combos of QT we'll give him 3 since he isn't always opening it and will fold to the check raise the majority of the time. Of the 16 combos of QJ and JT we'll certainly give him the 4 suited combos and half the remaining combos for 10 total. We'll give him 3 combos of Jxs where x is <10. And we'll give him 1 random flush draw like 87ss.

Ok, so his river range has 33 combos we beat and 19 that beat us. So if we check, how many of the 52 does he bet? Certainly the 19 that beat us. We'll let him bluff is rando flush draw and bet 3 out of 4 QT, and 7 out of his 13 Jx. Of the 9 AK, let's say he goes for thin value twice. He'll check back his Asxs.
If we check/fold, we win 12,800 20 of 52 times he checks back and fold the other 32. Net EV = +4923 chips

If we check call, we win 12,800 19 of 52 times he checks back, lose 8,418 19 of 52 times he bets and wins, and win 21,218 the 14 out of 52 times we successfully bluff catch. Net EV = +7313


If we jam, we lose 8418 the 19 of 52 times he beats us. Of the remaining 33 combos, say he calls with his straights and trips but nothing else. 17 combos. So 17 out of 52 we win 21,218 and 16 out of 52 we win 12,800. Net EV +7799

Now, in practice people under bluff and over call and don't value bet thinly. But we're only giving him one bluff and we've actually got him making some pretty big folds and passing up some pretty thin value. And it's still not particularly close. You can change the numbers up but I still think jamming is the best play.

You are giving him way too many combos based on the action on the flop and the turn.

QT and QTs both could be folded preflop so you must discount it somewhat when compared to a hand like AK. 6 combos of Axss is also too high imo. The QJ and JT combos also seem high especially when you consider the turn action. Even if you are giving him all of these combos preflop, some of these hands are shoving the turn.

I don't see how we can assume he will call with all trips on the river as well. JT and even QJ are bluff catchers at this point given what appears to be a polarized range on our end.