PokerStars - 350/700 Ante 90 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 71.13 BB
UTG: 52.55 BB (VPIP: 52.63, PFR: 21.05, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 19)
MP: 138.76 BB (VPIP: 23.68, PFR: 17.06, 3Bet Preflop: 6.36, Hands: 1,010)
CO: 57.69 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
BTN: 89.64 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 11)
SB: 35.21 BB (VPIP: 31.58, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 39)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.27 BB) Hero has J T

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (5.27 BB, 2 players) 8 T J
Hero checks, MP bets 3.71 BB, Hero raises to 13.22 BB, MP raises to 35.69 BB, Hero

V is a micro reg, I never saw anything crazy from him. Is his range fully composed of sets and Q9? If not, what should we do?

As played, I'm jamming here. I don't think I would check-raise in this spot and then fold to a re-raise on this street. We had the chance to trap/pot-control and we decided to fast-play it (which is fine) but I don't like folding top2 at this point.

The combos that beat us: 1 combo of JJ, 1 combo of TT, 3 combos of 88, and I guess 4 combos of Q9s, maybe 4 combos of 97s. That's 13 total combos.

Combos We Beat: QQ/KK/AA (18 combos total), plus the MANY combos of semibluff and 1P+draw hands (KJss, A9ss, 99, T9dd, etc.)


I think the key for me is that you said this vill is a micro-reg which leads me to believe that he will GII with his combo draws on the flop. But I think even against a drawless range (sets/overpair/maybeAJ) we still have to call based on such limited value combos.

What's tough about this hand is that even when we are "ahead" of his semibluffs and overpairs, we aren't far ahead which keeps the all-in equities pretty close here but the overlay in the pot almost compels us to call I think

the thing is J in our hand blocks several draws that he plausibly could take this line with..QJss(tpgk + straight flush draw), J9ss(pair + straight flush draw), AJss(tptk + fd), KJss(tpgk+fd).
Our hand also blocks 2 sets combos.
so, he might have
88(3), 99(6), TT(1), JJ(1), QQ+(18), Q9s(4), AQss(1), AKss(1), KQss(1)
here is the result of equity calculator:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

21,760,530 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 8,T,J

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JsTd	44.11%	9,526,857	142,578
99, Q9s,TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA,88,AsQs,AsKs,KsQs	55.89%	12,091,095	142,578

So, we are behind and even if we shove, there is prob no fold equity .
id fold.

Not folding

^^^^ Wow ... I am not expert enough to let it go.

Yeah us holding the Js is really bad here. Villain can also have 97ss too. Aside from the overpairs it's hard to see any other weaker hands in his range.

I like the flop x/r but it looks like you just ran into the best of his range here.

Thanks for your input, guys.

However, don't you think the overpairs (AA, KK, QQ) would just call the c/r and face the later streets in position? We are quite deep and with the c/r my value range is narrowed to two pairs, big draws and flopped straights.

With 44% equity we're folding and not calling?

^^ 35.69BB that V 3-bets otf is more than 1/2 of our stack...with this size we either shove or fold, calling is not an option.

What bluffs do you think your c/r range has? If villain is flatting overpairs then this is more of a fold. I don't see a problem with c/c either since you block a lot of flushes and pair+draw hands.

Yeah, I know it's more of a fold, but most comments had the overpairs in V's range and I wanted to know if you guys think that V would've played the overpairs like that or if you were just including the overpair combos just to improve my equity.

So yeah, I understood your opinions, but a new doubt arose

^^^ Yeah, I included overpairs to demo that we are still behind even if he plays like that.

Yes it is. Would have thought people would have learnt forget about these imagined rules when "open shove or fold <20bb" and "shove or fold from BB <10bb" were utterly disproven.

One underrated benefit of calling is that the worst rivers may stop hero getting stacked when he was already behind. Either because villain doesn't shove 88 on a 9 river or because hero folds when he does.

I referred to slightly another rule of thumb...if u decide to call and it takes >=40% of your stack you better of shoving. In this specific spot - let's say turn comes A, hero checks and V shoves, do you fold?

Why is that a valid rule of thumb in your opinion? If he's never folding his high equity bluffs then I don't really want to put in the last of my chips (36bb, not insignificant) vs a range of sets, straights and combo draws.

If I called, I'd fold the A turn. Don't see what we beat and we have flushes to call with.

^^ let's say that instead of J we hold J Now our equity reaches 50% because V has all those fd's that we block with J we are even slightly ahead!

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

39,600 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 8TJ

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JhTd	51.47%	20,025	715
99, Q9s,TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA,88,AsQs,AsKs,KsQs,QsJs, Js9s, AsJs, KsJs	48.53%	18,860	715

But in order to realize that equity we need to see all the streets. F.e. if V completes flush, we can still beat him if we hit FH on the river.
This is why I believe that we either shove - if we are ahead or face a coin or just fold if we are behind.
Otherwise we often fold on the turn and spew half of our stack.

Don't you think he might have any AsXs there as well? And just try to get some folds or even just GII, loads of people do it there.
If you add those hands in his range our Equity goes to 55%

i am not sure what you mean by "there", but I rarely see 3-bet OTF in general to draw any conclusions.
Also, V's profile suggest that he plays somewhat tight - based on a good sample size - and players of this style prob don't 3-bet otf with a naked flush draw on a super wet board.