Quite tough spot on final table. 5bb stack minraises (basically committed), and chip leader jams 25bb. Im 5/8 on finaltable bubble (7 places paid) with 10bb behind. Chip leader (who jams) has earlier only showed premium hands, so I was quite sure im flipping against his entire shoving range (excluding JJ). There was 16bb guy on BB so thats also factor on his side to shove a bit tighter.

So yeah, my thinking was pretty much that small stack has pairs/sc/broadway and im likely to be ahead, and im flipping against MP. I folded it for the sake of icm. Opinions?
PokerStars - 400/800 Ante 50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 5.27 BB (VPIP: 14.00, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 52)
SB: 16.79 BB (VPIP: 26.53, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 49)
BB: 10.18 BB (VPIP: 8.00, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 26)
UTG: 0.73 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
UTG+1: 11.06 BB (VPIP: 8.70, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
MP: 4.97 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 10.42, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 49)
MP+1: 25.59 BB (VPIP: 20.48, PFR: 16.46, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 85)
Hero (CO): 9.79 BB

8 players post ante of 0.06 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, MP raises to 3 BB, MP+1 raises to 25.53 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 1.91 BB and is all-in

Flop: (11.82 BB, 2 players) J 6 K

Turn: (11.82 BB, 2 players) 4

River: (11.82 BB, 2 players) T

MP shows K A (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 47%, Flop 58%, Turn 76%)
MP+1 shows T T (Three of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 53%, Flop 42%, Turn 24%)
MP+1 wins 11.82 BB

QQ is so strong that I would happily go broke there. You want to win not min cash, right?

Excellent fold. UTG with his 0.73 BB stack has an insane effect on your bubble factor against CP. do you have the payout structure?

Nice fold!

Here I think its a spot of only AA
Someone want to icmize?

I'd fold AA here on the stone bubble with one shortstack allin and UTG allin next hand.

**** icm, just try for higher stack.

Worst advice so far in 2019

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sir, stop posting this BS and try to learn FT 101. You will benefit from that a lot from it when/if u make it to the final table.

People really need to stop posting results in their hands, you can't get honest feedback that way.

Guess I'm terrible because I'm calling QQ+ here and feeling perfectly fine about it lol

that's actually great. people who call here keep poker alive. thanks for that sir.

It's an interesting spot because it depends on your read of chip leader - 1st raiser should be super-tight given microstack that's about to hit the blinds - The question is does cl realise this or is he just chucking his stack about with a decent hand like AJ or 66 - Given read of CL we can just about sigh fold QQ but close imo. No way we're folding KK+

You could also argue that CL is probably not that likely to JAM KK+ here as he desperately wants someone to spaz out with weaker hands which again have more merit to calling QQ. Another important thing to consider here is also that if we overtake the chip lead we will have a significantly easier time finding good spots as we are severely handicapped as a midstack. I must admit I find it kind of hilarious to be berated for calling QQ even though it's properly a borderline call but if they money matters a lot you can probably just fold for less variance.


How insightful lol

Actually there is a way. it's all about gigantic bubble factor that UTG's stack creates here. I think that KK is an easy fold. It's just math.

ICM don't lie, it's easy

Call AA and fold the rest
You cannot bust before the two micro stacks. You are spewing $ all over the table if you lose.
Any reasonable hand vs KK has around 20 to 35% equity.

Basic poker math...

This thread should go; someone runs it in ICMizer, then people determine whether they want to stick rigidly to the model given other factors that oldgoat and Whia raised.

This isn't like Alcoholics Anonymous. Not trying to hear about everybodys whims, feelings and ambitions.

To me it seems more like a couple of flat earthers who deny obvious fact - the bubble factor that defines calling ranges is HUGE. There is no point to argue with flat earthers though, so I agree, this thread should go.

I think I used the wrong punctuation, when I grow up I want to be able to use ";" appropriately.

Not saying the thread should be gone, just that ICMizer results should form the basis of the thread and the only relevant arguments are based on either the flaws in the model (eg. doesnt take future game into account) or flaws in the input (ranges). Saying I want big stack or I fold everything because I really need to cash are pointless comments.

Ok so I've run it through ICMizer - assuming MP is never folding - and has range of JJ+ Ak
MP+1 has 99+ AQ+,everyone else an overshove range of KK+ gives a calling range of KK+

Actually it's not impossible that MP will fold the bottom end of his range against two shoves
which of course improves our situation and ranges may be looser than those given
QQ is a sigh fold imo and KK a clear call.

Perhaps Pouled and ffsh might decide to row back a bit on all the condescension in future

oldgoat I can argue that calculation you run is not correct because u don't know the payout structure. The proper way to icmize it is:
1) derive bubble factor
2) derive required equity vs 1 opponent, vs 2 opponents
3) cry and fold KK

I used pokerstars standard 45man - which is what this almost certainly is given 7 paid

Thanks for running it. I wonder if MP is even supposed to open AK in this spot, I'd guess not. AK mistakes are single-handedly keeping short stack poker alive.

given the runout, very nice fold

i would really love to run this spot in hrc/icmizer knowing the exact payout structure. OP, please respond.