Final 40 in a 2000 entry field, should I be folding here - MTT Poker Strategy

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Final 40 in a 2000 entry field, should I be folding here

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02-08-2021 , 12:30 PM

evan471

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 59

This is a spot I struggle with. I was top 5 chip count in the final stages of a giant entry tournament. Should I be folding this spot and waiting for a better spot, or is this a fine spot to go for? MP was chip leader and had been playing very loose, so I wasn't too concerned about his hand here

Yatahay Network - 4000/8000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 18.89 BB
MP: 100.79 BB
MP+1: 18.82 BB
CO: 10.78 BB
BTN: 20.72 BB
Hero (SB): 49.68 BB
BB: 46.81 BB
UTG: 13.89 BB

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.45 BB) Hero has 9

fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, MP+1 raises to 18.7 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, Hero raises to 49.56 BB and is all-in, fold, fold

Flop: (41.36 BB, 2 players) 4

Turn: (41.36 BB, 2 players) J

River: (41.36 BB, 2 players) K

MP+1 shows A

(Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 45%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows 9

(One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 55%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
MP+1 wins 41.36 BB

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02-09-2021 , 12:20 AM

bumpnrun

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,888

I’m happy to let this go. CL may have been abusing but it’s a disaster for us with 50bb when he has TT+. We may not even be ahead of the 3 bettor. Some players won’t do that with their small pairs

JJ I’d easily go with and TT seems closer

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02-09-2021 , 03:52 AM

Colin_Piddle

The Colonial

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 11,808

I think it's fine, esp if the guy with 100B is very active. If guy with 100B was a nit then its a fold.

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02-09-2021 , 06:54 PM

Captain-Hindsight

adept

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,114

I think it’s very close. Probably leaning towards a fold without reads on MP+1

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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02-10-2021 , 04:27 AM

bumpnrun

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,888

You guys do know we have 50bb right? Original raisers covers and one of the blinds yet to act almost covers . Maybe I’m too cautious with that stack depth but I’d gii for sure with more like 40bb or less

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02-10-2021 , 11:01 PM

Ouzel

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 19

I’d probably pass. I tend to play anything up to JJ with caution anyway and this looks like a coin flip vs 2 over cards at best or totally dominated at worst. You have time to find a better spot with your 50BB stack.

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02-13-2021 , 05:24 PM

Paklu

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,559

I would go in with same stacksizes if reshover was button. From button 22+, AXs looks very good and most of them even without reads ,but from MP+1 it gets too much into "I hope this MP player exploits loose chipleader while assuming nobody overcalls light". But final 40 is not a place where one should "look for a better spot". At this point you need to take all EV you can, because it wont be long until folding actually makes money and at that point it is good to be big stack and have others do the folding.

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02-14-2021 , 03:18 PM

Ouzel

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paklu

Valid point and this is an extremely relevant addition to the discussion for me personally, as I’ve been finding myself reaching the late stages of tournaments frequently of late, but never making the final table. This would seem to indicate that I need to work on being more aggressive in the latter stages of MTT and I do see it as a potentially huge leak which obviously can make the difference between profit and good profit for a tournament player.

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