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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 10-03-2020, 12:10 PM   #1
jgav
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Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

I'm on the BTN with A5dd and 13 bb
SB has about 50 bb and BB has about 22 bb
I raise to 3bb and SB raises me to 7 bb
He had been getting out of line often and had shown he wasn't a strong player and was just trying to bust people earlier on
I shove 10 bb behind and he calls with 44
Run out is Kd9d2h10c5s

Should I have folded to the raise even though he had been getting out of line?
I figure that was my best chance to get a stack and make top 2.
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Old 10-03-2020, 12:29 PM   #2
Captain-Hindsight
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

I would think this is a jam pre but it's basically the bottom of our range. raise is not a good option IMO.

I would encourage you to watch this video from BenCB (second hand analysis). It's not an apples to apples comparison but it's similar and I think it will help you draw your own conclusions about how to play this hand

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KWi...=RaiseYourEdge
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Old 10-03-2020, 12:38 PM   #3
jgav
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

I will watch that for sure. This player called my all in previously with 6 5 off so I thought he could have air and just trying to bully me. But, he also could just have me beat with a better ace etc.
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Old 10-03-2020, 04:16 PM   #4
WHO_RUNIT
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

I agree, with 13bb's it's open shove. I'm very rarely opening for min with under 15bb's (unless other players are incredibly weak/tight.)
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Old 10-03-2020, 05:47 PM   #5
Colin_Piddle
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Easy shove pre. Not sure how much ICM factors here when you are last in chips.
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Old 10-04-2020, 09:51 AM   #6
oldgoat
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

as people have said - pretty clear jam - The chipstacks being as they are you can be pretty free to lay pretty much without ICM worries as you have to double up to get the next pay jump so I would be shoving pretty much anything +CEV so we are actually some way from the bottom of the range here
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:46 AM   #7
Captain-Hindsight
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colin_Piddle View Post
Not sure how much ICM factors here when you are last in chips.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldgoat View Post
The chipstacks being as they are you can be pretty free to lay pretty much without ICM worries as you have to double up to get the next pay jump
So I think players make the mistake of getting a little ICM lazy when we're last in chips. The fact is that when we fold, we're making $ because there is a chance one of the players will get knocked out and we move up a pay jump.

since OP said the pay jump was large I used a 180m payout structure (30,20,11.4)

a NASH shoving range here (without taking card removal effects into account) is 40.9%:
{22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,5 4s,A2o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o}

now I ran two calculations in ICMizer the first was with their suggested ranges:

Scenario 1:
Hero push: SB calls 9.5%{66+,A9s+,KQs,ATo+}, BB calls 12.4% {55+,A8s+,KJs+,A9o+,KQo}
*these ranges remained the same for both calcs

Hero Folds: SB push 100%, BB calls 5.5% {88+, AQs+, AQo+}
*this is what would happen at an ICM equilibrium but obviously most player don't play like that.

in this case hero shoves:
19.5% {22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,A9o+,KJo+}
so we're folding out more than half what a +cEV range is!!

Scenario 2:
Now for the second scenario I adjusted the hero folds part of the calc:
Hero Folds: SB push 50%{22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,65 s,A2o+,K5o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o}, BB calls 15% {66+,A4s+,KTs+,A8o+,KJo+}

now hero shoves:
28% {22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,J To}
Hero still folds 12% less than a NASH range!

now I know these ranges are not perfect. In reality SB and BB are more likely to play a limp/check, or raise/call hand than a jam/call and jam/fold strategy. Meaning we can probably profitably jam even wider than the 28% range I listed above, but I wanted to illustrate just how much ICM still factors into our ranges even when we are last in chips.

I hope some of you find this helpful,

Last edited by Captain-Hindsight; 10-04-2020 at 10:52 AM.
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Old 10-04-2020, 12:38 PM   #8
oldgoat
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

^ Good post - you're right to question the idea that ICM never matters when we are last in chips - there are times when it matters a lot - but I don't think this is one of them

I think your calculations run into the problem (that you acknowledge) that the action hardly ever goes shove / call after we fold ( and BB calls nothing like as wide as you have put into the second scenario - calling a 22BB shove with 15% is complete ICM suicide)
realistically we have to double up if we are going to chip up so I think it's more useful to look at ICM factor when we gii against both villains

putting chipstacks into an ICM calculator I make it that our ICM factor against CL is about 1.3 and against mid-stack 1.1 ( which makes intuitive sense if you think that it is more valuable to double up against mid stack since that leaves us in a strong second place whereas doubling against bigstack leaves us second but close to the third in chips)

so average ICM factor is about 1.2 - which is not nothing but not enough to make us consider folding A5s - and bearing in mind that generally people play too tight and overfold on FT I think we should certainly be shoving >30% - (depending on antes -OP doesn't say what size they are )
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:37 AM   #9
bearer
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Captain Hindsight, is the conclusion here that when you adjusted for a lower SB-BB collision likelihood, we jam less?

Assumed so but never seen it proven with an ICM calculator so thanks.
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Old 10-05-2020, 12:18 PM   #10
insomnia666
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Why 3x? With 3x you must play with tight range and this is not good.
A5s with 13bb can be also raise-fold, raise-call (4bet), not always shove. In this situation the shove is better, because SB is loose, he have bigger stack than you and the chipleader is behind him.

As played, 4bet...I can't see how you can fold with this hand and with this size for open raise. You can't call also...
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Old 10-05-2020, 01:20 PM   #11
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bearer View Post
Captain Hindsight, is the conclusion here that when you adjusted for a lower SB-BB collision likelihood, we jam less?

Assumed so but never seen it proven with an ICM calculator so thanks.
No - other way around surely- lower collision likelihood makes folding less attractive and so shoving more attractive
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Old 10-05-2020, 03:05 PM   #12
bearer
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

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Originally Posted by oldgoat View Post
No - other way around surely- lower collision likelihood makes folding less attractive and so shoving more attractive
Yes, misspoke. More attractive.
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Old 10-05-2020, 06:51 PM   #13
Captain-Hindsight
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Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Yes, so to conclude, less collision likelihood equals more profitable to shove. It should also be noted that the type of hands that we should shove here are a little more geared towards the broadway type hands than Ax, presumably because weíre more likely to have 2 live cards when called. (At least thatís how it looks to me. I havenít actually looked too closely at how the range is structured)

And again as mentioned by others, in this case we really donít need to narrow down our shoving range that much. Just the bottom 5%-10%, depending mostly on how the Big stack is playing and if they have position on the other small stack or not.


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Old 10-05-2020, 07:36 PM   #14
insomnia666
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

"...we should shove here are a little more geared towards the broadway type hands than Ax, presumably because we’re more likely to have 2 live cards when called."

In theory. With theoretical ranges...For call...

BU 24.3%, 22+ A2s+ A9o+ K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s
SB 10.0%, 55+ A8s+ ATo+
BB 4.2%, 99+ AQs+ AKo

BB 10.9%, 55+ A8s+ A9o+

In reality there are some "ugly" hands in their ranges. Which you don't want to see...

Last edited by insomnia666; 10-05-2020 at 07:59 PM.
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Old 10-05-2020, 07:43 PM   #15
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Quote:
Originally Posted by insomnia666 View Post
" It should also be noted that the type of hands that we should shove here are a little more geared towards the broadway type hands than Ax, presumably because weíre more likely to have 2 live cards when called."

Mistake...Look "closely"...You play MTT, correct? This "live cards" just don't "work". No such thing...

Lol


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Old 10-05-2020, 08:06 PM   #16
insomnia666
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Ok, "lol". I edited my post, because I know what will happen. This "two live cards" are words used by gamblers, not poker players. Buy some good tool, like HRC and see the "reality". Shove with JTo and QTo, fold A8o... Good luck with this. You needed...

Ok, I misread the hand, the chipleader is on SB. But this actually is worse.

BU 21.0%, 22+ A2s+ A9o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s
SB 9.4%, 55+ ATs+ ATo+
BB 4.2%, 99+ AQs+ AKo

BB 10.1%, 44+ A9s+ ATo+

Last edited by insomnia666; 10-05-2020 at 08:36 PM.
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Old 10-05-2020, 09:26 PM   #17
insomnia666
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Theoretical ranges for call:





You can see here. How "good" are this hands. And how "bad" are the Ax hands...Still we have 114 combos Ax and 72 combos "broadway type hands ".

What if you add some other hands in their ranges? "Real hands", you can see that very often. KQo, even KJo sometime, KJs very often, sometime QJs. What then!? Then you will "wake up". "Two live cards"...

Last edited by insomnia666; 10-05-2020 at 09:55 PM.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:12 PM   #18
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Even vs this theoretical ranges for call KJo is not "two live cards" vs JJ+, AJ, AK, KQs, 45 combos. 87o is not "two live cards" vs 77+, 42 combos. 97o as well...Go then, go...Go with this 87o and 97o, why fold!? Two live cards...
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Old 10-06-2020, 09:41 PM   #19
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

I honestly have no idea what this is all about. I donít know if you miss read the hand or misunderstood what I was trying to say.. but all Iím saying is look at how the range is built, or donít, I donít really care


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Old 10-06-2020, 10:57 PM   #20
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Re: Final 3 with a prize big jump at 2nd, do I fold here considering the ICM implications?

Easy shove initially. I wouldn't raise 3xBB with 13xBB. As played, it is close what to do to the 3!. If you aren't going to open shove a hand, minraise or a little over with a polarized range and a clear plan to r/f or gii.
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