Quote:
Originally Posted by Colin_Piddle
Not sure how much ICM factors here when you are last in chips.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldgoat
The chipstacks being as they are you can be pretty free to lay pretty much without ICM worries as you have to double up to get the next pay jump
So I think players make the mistake of getting a little ICM lazy when we're last in chips. The fact is that when we fold, we're making $ because there is a chance one of the players will get knocked out and we move up a pay jump.
since OP said the pay jump was large I used a 180m payout structure (30,20,11.4)
a NASH shoving range here (without taking card removal effects into account) is 40.9%:
{22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,5 4s,A2o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o}
now I ran two calculations in ICMizer the first was with their suggested ranges:
Scenario 1:
Hero push: SB calls 9.5%{66+,A9s+,KQs,ATo+}, BB calls 12.4% {55+,A8s+,KJs+,A9o+,KQo}
*these ranges remained the same for both calcs
Hero Folds: SB push 100%, BB calls 5.5% {88+, AQs+, AQo+}
*this is what would happen at an ICM equilibrium but obviously most player don't play like that.
in this case hero shoves:
19.5% {22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,A9o+,KJo+}
so we're folding out more than half what a +cEV range is!!
Scenario 2:
Now for the second scenario I adjusted the hero folds part of the calc:
Hero Folds: SB push 50%{22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,65 s,A2o+,K5o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o}, BB calls 15% {66+,A4s+,KTs+,A8o+,KJo+}
now hero shoves:
28% {22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,J To}
Hero still folds 12% less than a NASH range!
now I know these ranges are not perfect. In reality SB and BB are more likely to play a limp/check, or raise/call hand than a jam/call and jam/fold strategy. Meaning we can probably profitably jam even wider than the 28% range I listed above, but I wanted to illustrate just how much ICM still factors into our ranges even when we are last in chips.
I hope some of you find this helpful,
Last edited by Captain-Hindsight; 10-04-2020 at 10:52 AM.