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Facing raise with a set

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12-31-2020 , 02:49 PM

tripled83

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 162

Yatahay Network - 350/700 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 22.19 BB
MP: 17.06 BB
MP+1: 88.88 BB
CO: 24.84 BB
Hero (BTN): 19.5 BB
SB: 32.4 BB
BB: 100.76 BB
UTG: 32.06 BB

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has J

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.2 BB, fold, BB calls 1.2 BB

Flop: (5.86 BB, 2 players) Q

BB checks, Hero bets 2.7 BB, BB raises to 10 BB, [color=red][b]Hero?

could he have flopped a straight?

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12-31-2020 , 02:50 PM

Colin_Piddle

The Colonial

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 11,808

LOL of course he could but you can never ever fold.

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12-31-2020 , 09:33 PM

HUHandEH

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 5,458

Yup, cheerio, I'd be happy about it.

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01-08-2021 , 01:36 PM

stremba70

adept

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 1,113

Even if you knew for sure he flipped a straight you still call. Assuming you get the rest of your stack in one way or another you are risking 14.6BB. Pot currently is 18.36, plus another 14.6 from V if you gii for a total of 32.96. You have to win 14.6/(14.6+32.96) = 30.7% to break even. You have 7 outs ott and 10 otr if you don’t hit. Opponent wins 40/47 x 36/46 = 66.6%. You therefore win 33.4% so you should call.

In actual fact, you don’t know V has a straight, so it’s probably not a bad play to just shove the flop. V might well fold or call with worse, and even if he calls with the straight, as shown above you still are +EV.

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