What range could SB have OTF when he XR?
I put him at K5o, A5o or bottom set, I know it's a narrow range, but what else could he be doing this with OTF?
Is this a leak to call his flop raise early in a tourney if I was half my stack size?
From my notes on him, he's not XR there as a bluff and usually has better than top pair in this spot.
PT4 notes on stationy villain:
Quote:
[P] 3Bet All-In (Eff. Stacks: BB between 5 and 20) with {AJo} (1)
[P] 3Bet Blind vs Steal All-In (Eff. Stacks: BB >= 8) with {QQ} (1)
[P] 3Bet Not All-In (Eff. Stacks: BB >= 10) with {AJs,AKo} (2)
[P] Called SB Open Shove from BB with {44} (1)
[P] Called a 3Bet Out of Position (Eff. Stacks: BB >= 15) with {ATs,54s} (2)
[P] Called a non-shove 2Bet from the blinds with {ATs,Q8s,J8s} (4)
[P] Opened all-in from UTG to the hijack (Eff. Stacks: BB between 5 and 15) with {88,AJo} (2)
[P] Opened all-in from the SB (Eff. Stacks: BB between 3 and 20) with {J8o} (1)
[P] Raised or Called All-in Preflop (Eff. Stacks: BB >= 22) with {QQ,ATs,AKo} (4)
From my notes on him, he's not XR there as a bluff and usually has better than top pair in this spot.
So you called his XR there why then??
If you think he's never bluffing when he c/raises then it would seem you need to fold on the turn because even though you picked up some equity on the turn, if we think he's only c/raising sets and two pairs then you are betting 1148 to win 4383 so you need to win 26% of the time to break even. When I ran this on flopzilla and had him only c/raising a set of 5's (Taking out AA/KK) and two pairs your equity is at about break even.
However, if we are thinking that due to pot size if we do hit our flush on the river that we will get the rest of his stack then we are really betting 1148 to win 7331 so the implied odds would seem to justify a call on the turn
Looks really strong. A5 very feasible. Call, evaluate turn, as played, fold turn.
Given that we need to fold the turn despite hitting one of our best possible cards, why even call flop? I'm just folding flop to the c/r, don't see many bluff c/r on AK5r into a bet and a call, and we don't beat a single value hand, so just fold it, yeah?
Given that we need to fold the turn despite hitting one of our best possible cards, why even call flop? I'm just folding flop to the c/r, don't see many bluff c/r on AK5r into a bet and a call, and we don't beat a single value hand, so just fold it, yeah?
Yeah, valid point.
Just think that folding top pair here is very weak. Unless we can pin point opponents exact hand, I think we have to defend flop and evaluate turn. If we don't hit a 6 or an A then we can drop it.
Given that we need to fold the turn despite hitting one of our best possible cards, why even call flop? I'm just folding flop to the c/r, don't see many bluff c/r on AK5r into a bet and a call, and we don't beat a single value hand, so just fold it, yeah?
My bad. I didn't see we'd picked up the flush draw on the turn!