Serious question. I've been playing since quarantine began. Lost quite a bit at first but got the hang of it after a while. Wound up up about a $750 now down to only up like $300.
Typically win (by win I mean top 5 or so) a few then go on 2 month long losing streaks... where I am either getting coolered deep (i.e. stack sizes require you to play the hand... hands like TT + and then a guy obv. has QQ + at that point in the tounrey) or just losing with the better hand. Lost twice w AQ v A9 tonight in the same tournament to the same guy (had a re-reg).
Just curious how many of these you actually have to play for it to make sense. Right now it makes no sense to me. Seems like I lose when I have the best hand - very often - and then rarely suck out in the situations where I have to play a TT.
Is the variance this bad or did I just get lucky when I was winning... I.E. are these all luck unless you play millions of hands?
Just play with the calculator a bit and it'll show you how insane MTT variance is.
For example:
If you play MTT's with 500 max players, $5.50 buy-in (including 0.50 rake)
If you play 10.000 of these with a true ROI of 5%, you have 17% chance to be losing money after playing that many tournaments. INSANE
Variance goes down as the field size decreases and as your ROI goes up.
Wow. That is eye opening. Amazing to me that there are some guys on shark scope with big positive performances over time. I dunno how they do it.
Like I said, I lost for a while ($500 or so). Then I read a couple books and put $350 back on. Employed what I read and I had a nice 500 tourney run where I was flat, then hit 8 or final tables with good payouts. My graph looked nice =P. Thought I was playing well then BOOM... got smoked (am still getting smoked, though I had a 4th place finish over the weekend).
I feel like I typically get my money in on a coin flip or better (not always obviously when I am on the short stack or just occasionally get coolered), so I feel like I should be doing a bit better. Don't orchestrate crazy bluffs, although I feel like I get bluffed once in a while with some crazy river all in.
Just play with the calculator a bit and it'll show you how insane MTT variance is.
For example:
If you play MTT's with 500 max players, $5.50 buy-in (including 0.50 rake)
If you play 10.000 of these with a true ROI of 5%, you have 17% chance to be losing money after playing that many tournaments. INSANE
Variance goes down as the field size decreases and as your ROI goes up.
Wow. That is eye opening. Amazing to me that there are some guys on shark scope with big positive performances over time. I dunno how they do it.
Like I said, I lost for a while ($500 or so). Then I read a couple books and put $350 back on. Employed what I read and I had a nice 500 tourney run where I was flat, then hit 8 or final tables with good payouts. My graph looked nice =P. Thought I was playing well then BOOM... got smoked (am still getting smoked, though I had a 4th place finish over the weekend).
I feel like I typically get my money in on a coin flip or better (not always obviously when I am on the short stack or just occasionally get coolered), so I feel like I should be doing a bit better. Don't orchestrate crazy bluffs, although I feel like I get bluffed once in a while with some crazy river all in.
This calculator is super helpful and interesting.
Appreciate the reply!
It happens, I won a 5.50 Mini Marathon, up 2k in total but have lost $300 since just due to variance. It happens, and the best possible view is that if you are up at all, you are so far a winning player.
