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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 05-03-2018, 07:40 AM   #1
miguelin43
grinder
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: in the Age of Downswing...
Posts: 454
Double barrel spot vs tight SB

Hi guys

Villain is 18/16 in 25 hands. Folded twice already vs steal in SB

The turn card is a very nice to barrel...but at the same time it hits Villain defending SB range

So if i barrel i can make him fold some 88 and some club draw without Ac (KcQc) but not the rest of combos he defends SB with , which have a lot of Ax in them...what do you think of my line of thinking?


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $4.50 Buy-in (7,000/14,000 blinds, 1,750 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37933819

Hero (UTG): 467,713 (33.4 bb)
MP: 311,790 (22.3 bb)
CO: 209,643 (15 bb)
BTN: 399,263 (28.5 bb)
SB: 360,812 (25.8 bb)
BB: 578,021 (41.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7 7
Hero raises to 30,000, 3 folds, SB calls 23,000, BB calls 16,000

Flop: (100,500) 6 9 6 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 39,000, SB calls 39,000, BB folds

Turn: (178,500) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (178,500) J (2 players)
SB bets 70,000, Hero folds
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Old 05-03-2018, 10:20 AM   #2
Darth_Maul
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Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 3,102
Re: Double barrel spot vs tight SB

Let's assume his stats are accurate and he's a solid TAG. What does he call with in the SB against a UTG open? 22-JJ, suited Aces, and suited connector stuff.

The interesting thing is he x/c the flop after you CB vs 2 players and BB is still to act. So he has something for sure. Given his starting stack I think he just shoves the flop with a good draw. With 26bb to start I don't think he's going to be passively drawing to anything. I think we can remove all the Axcc combos for that reason.

So his x/c on the flop has me leaning towards a monster (99, maybe some combos of A6/76/65), top pair (A9) or a decent overpair playing pot control against your strong range (JJ/TT).

Assuming he x/shoves good draws and folds all his other missed/mediocre stuff, the turn card will scare JJ/TT but nothing else. The other problem with betting the turn is you'll hate if he shoves. So I like the turn check.

If he gets to the river with any hands you beat I don't think he leads with any of them so I like the fold.
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Old 05-04-2018, 12:21 AM   #3
SHIP_DAT
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Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 179
Re: Double barrel spot vs tight SB

If we were deeper I like the barrel but his flat range on the flop has to be pretty strong.
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