Originally Posted by RPMcMurphy
first of all, you need to open your 3-betting range probably all the way to 88+ otherwise your 3-bet range is just way too exploitable. - I disagree here. Since the opener is on 36bb eff. and we have 46bb with some deeper stacks behind, I could see debating whether to fold or call with A6s-A8s or something, or whether to fold or 3bet bluff KQo, A2s-A5s, etc. But, I think at least 77-TT should be calls in this spot for sure.
And secondly what hands are you betting all three streets with, sets, KK, AA, busted flush draws and straight draws, some made river hands such as KJcc, KTcc and KQcc (AK 3-bets preflop, and KT is pretty wide flat and probably also should 3-bet KQ, so this range is extra wide) and the rare 78s. Your value hands here make up only 27 combos, and that is on the generous side. - I agree that my value combos are somewhere around 27 combos (I gave myself 3 combos of JJ and 1 of AA, no 65s, and I'll say I go for thin value with TT but check back 99). So, I'll go with your 27 value combos, but I would say it's on the conservative side, not generous. So my value range is: (KQcc, KJcc, KTcc, 77-JJ, 44, 33, AA, 87s).
I put together a range of just busted flush draws, Q8+, J8+, T8+, 97+, 86+, 76. This makes up 15 combos as it and I didn't even account for any Ax because you said you 3-bet those pre. Not to mention there is also straight draws that missed, 5x, 6x, T9, J9, JT. We just have way too little value combos here.
- Here, you are including hands in this range that I am folding preflop. Also, you are including hands with 7x/8x, which I am not going to bet all streets. As far as Ax goes, I 3b the A2s-A5s only, flat with A6s-AQs. Hands like 5x, 6x, T9, J9, JT I'm folding preflop. Maybe A6dd, but I'm just checking that on the flop. T9s/J9s could potentially be in there preflop, but I would usually lean towards 3 betting if i Vpip'd, and I would only bet the club combos. So, you are putting way too many bluffs in my range here. In reality, my bluffs only total 8 combos: (A6cc, A9cc - AQcc, QJcc, QTcc, JTcc).
Now we account for his pot odds using your own sizings (2/3 pot on the turn), we get a bet off 1464. Villain makes the call with his 7x and 8x (he could also be slow playing his big hands because hero has a small SPR) and now the pot is 5146 and hero is left with 2340 chips. We jam that in on the river and villain only needs ~31% to call. Using the combos from earlier and assuming he loses to all our value hands and beats our bluffs (which is not true, he can still have some of our value hands beat) he has roughly ~36%. So even if he calls off with the bottom of his range (7x) hes still making a profit in this spot. That is why this is a punt.
- Here, your calculations are off. I'm only betting 33% (usually less) on this flop. For sake of discussion I'll say 1/3 flop, 2/3 turn, jam river. So, after betting 33% on flop, on the turn there would now be around 1720. After betting 2/3 , 1147, on the turn, there would be around 4k on the river. We would have just under 3k to jam into a 4k pot. So, his odds are a lot less than you gave above. As far as him having some of our value hands beat, well, I think that's extremely rare. Even if I include every set, 2pair, straight and Kcxc that beat us, he still doesn't have the proper equity to call. He has way too many weak pairs, busted club/diamond draws, busted straight draws, etc. You aren't accounting for how wide he should be calling in the big blind here. He will show up with Jc2c, Tc5c, 9c2c, etc sometimes. And the rest of his range is mostly weak one pairs, which shouldn't be calling the river and potentially not even calling the turn.
