Quote:
Originally Posted by RPMcMurphy
We're in the HJ, not EP, so I can have some 7x here for sure. I agree that I would mostly be 3 betting JJ+, but I will also show up with 99/TT a lot and I will occasionally mix in flats with JJ depending on stack sizes, opening ranges, etc. I will once in awhile also have AA here as a trap if players behind me are aggressive. I usually 3bet A2s and A5s preflop, so my only bluffs are a few combos of club flush draws. I'm not weighted towards bluffs here at all, quite the opposite when you break down my range.
You're not really taking villain's range here into account, either. After check-calling the turn, he almost never has nutted hands (2 pair+). The majority of his range is weak one pair hands that can't stand pressure on the river. Do you really think he's calling a jam with Q3s, A5o, 54o, every 7x, etc.? Bottom line is on the river, his range is super weak (usually at best A7 - 3rd pair top kicker or a random weak 8 like 85), and my range is filled with strong hands and very few missed club draws as bluffs.
First of all, you need to open your 3-betting range probably all the way to 88+ otherwise your 3-bet range is just way too exploitable.
And secondly what hands are you betting all three streets with, sets, KK, AA, busted flush draws and straight draws, some made river hands such as KJcc, KTcc and KQcc (AK 3-bets preflop, and KT is pretty wide flat and probably also should 3-bet KQ, so this range is extra wide) and the rare 78s. Your value hands here make up only 27 combos, and that is on the generous side.
I put together a range of just busted flush draws, Q8+, J8+, T8+, 97+, 86+, 76. This makes up 15 combos as it and I didn't even account for any Ax because you said you 3-bet those pre. Not to mention there is also straight draws that missed, 5x, 6x, T9, J9, JT. We just have way too little value combos here.
Now we account for his pot odds using your own sizings (2/3 pot on the turn), we get a bet off 1464. Villain makes the call with his 7x and 8x (he could also be slow playing his big hands because hero has a small SPR) and now the pot is 5146 and hero is left with 2340 chips. We jam that in on the river and villain only needs ~31% to call. Using the combos from earlier and assuming he loses to all our value hands and beats our bluffs (which is not true, he can still have some of our value hands beat) he has roughly ~36%. So even if he calls off with the bottom of his range (7x) hes still making a profit in this spot. That is why this is a punt.