Villain was very tight and i pretty much put him on aces or kings here(maybe AK) to his turn sizeing when he bets full pot. Now I wonder, do I have odds to call with the nutflushdraw and gutshot here on turn? It´s been bothering me now for a day so decided to post it here and ask opinions .

If villain is very tight, you probably shouldn't be calling a 3x raise from early position with that hand. But it's not terrible.

As played, x/shove flop. You don't want to be chasing a draw and have to x/fold a missed turn. Use all your fold equity and get him to fold some hands that beat you, with lots of outs if called.

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Well can't fold pre maybe 3 bet but call seems better vs tight 3x and yeah check raise flop with 30 bigs I guess calls plausible but as played when u turn the j do u just have to get it in with pot odds? I'm a noob to the science but surely u have enough equity even against ak?

No you don't. That's a pot sized bet, which means you're only getting 2:1 to call (33%) but you only have about 26% equity with the NFD+gutter.

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Ok thanks so what about his bluffs at Flushdraws but I guess with the pot bet he is polarized and most likely has ak or better?

And the 3 x pre 30bb deep looks allot like AK?

^Try not to assign villain one hand, construct a range of hands you think they may 3x from that position with those stacks then play against that range.

This player may 3 x all hands they open UTG2 which might include AA, KK, QQ, AK, AJs+.

Difficult spot, against a smaller turn sizing I probably check jam but with this pot sized bet we have very little fold equity

id call pre and x/j flop, even tight player is fold flop with some freq when he holds AJ,AT,QQ,JJ,TT

if we think he`s tight I don`t like c/jam flop.
That K makes him some good hands and its a bit too deep to c/jam flop.

On the same basis won`t be looking to c/jam turn.
Think its fine to let it go as played.

I think this is a question of how tight is tight- the amount of equity we have on the flop changes a lot between someone who's opening about a 7% range - including hands like Ajo ATs 77 etc and someone who's got more of a 4% range (99+ AQ+) Check jamming the flop is much more profitable against the wider range as we have much more fold equity and some possibility that an A is an out.

Generally i think the line is fine

Hardly anyone only play 5% UTG and I would need at least 100 hands to assume this tight of an image. I'm not saying he couldn't be playing this amount of hands but be careful with thinking people are that tight.

Anyways I'm baffled by some of the responses AQs is an easy call even against very tight players against more aggressive people you could make an argument for 3betting sometimes.

Also if someone is opening 5% hands they are probably pretty poor postflop which we should be looking to exploit. Also I'd much rather see a re-raise here to 90k and a jam on most turns with this hand. It got good blockers for many of his hand and we want to put his 99+ in tough spots if he c bets 100% of his range. It's also not a hand I would be wanting to fold to a 2nd barrel so putting him in a spot here is the better play imo.

Turn is close but I'd probably fold and keep my tournament life as I doubt I get bluffed often enough for it to more then at best a break-even call.

We rely on the read from the OP, which is "very tight" - AA/KK/AK. He doesn't provide any reason for having that read, and it may not be accurate, but that's the info we have. I would never fold AQs pre in this spot because nobody is that nitty, but I was making a point about incorporating reads into one's decision making. IF a player is that nitty, AQs should be folded.

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I really don't get it if we are going by your assumption that very tight = AA/KK/AK why are you telling him to x/shove flop?

Your basically telling him to fold based on a "read" and then disregarding the very same "read" once he sees a flop. It's just doesn't make any sense and that's not even considering the fact that I doubt this "read" is even close to his true range.

Played hand well imo. Hate a flop raise. The K significantly reduces the equity of your draw. 2 overs is better than 1 that may not even be live.

The read is wrong. Folding AQs pre in this spot would be absurd.

Solid strategy is more important than encouraging players to feed into their paranoia. AQs is way too high in distrubution.

Guys, I wasn't seriously advocating a fold here - my comment was meant to point out the flaw in the OP's decision making. He described a read on villain (which we all know is unrealistic) and then seemed to ignore that read in his decisions. If you think your read is accurate, go with it; otherwise reassess your read.

Are you check jamming KQ and KJ?

Not sure about folding QQ, JJ. It kinda looks like you have what you have. It's hard to flop sets.

Would you expect many people to bet QQ, JJ, TT here on KXX board?
Are there times where you would recommend this as a good play?

I would play it like wowsooooted.
Villain would have to open super tight to make it a bad play. Vs a really tight opening range like 5%, we still have 50% equity on this flop.
To make AQs a fold preflop, villain would have to open tighter than a 3,5% range (based on next street equity since we are so short, and with the pot odds that tells us we need 27% equity vs his range to call preflop).

As long as you are turning a gs + nfd, seems like nobody even considered a turn flat. if v is really tight then of course his pf, f and t plays show a lot of strength and probably that he is not folding. So, if you are not x/j flop, imho you could go with a turn flat because stackwise, you ll be left with more than 100k which is defo playable on 4/8k bb in case u miss river and have to fold.
You ve almost zero fe on the turn so jamming the turn is imho the worst option.
Go for a flop x/j and if you dont, then u dont have to make it an even worse play by x/j turn. Flatting turn might be -Ev in a vacuum but in that precise spot imo it is still a better option than x/j.
If you are uncertain with those spots and you decided not to x/j flop, then folding turn is still an option because as said before, you ve to pay 117k to win 234k which is 2-1 so you need circa 50% equity but your hand only has 27% on the turn... folding might be the better option regardless of implied odds