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Combo draw 25bb deep Combo draw 25bb deep

07-27-2018 , 10:27 AM
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 125/250 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 23.03 BB (VPIP: 29.33, PFR: 26.76, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 75)
MP+1: 19.8 BB (VPIP: 23.68, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 38)
MP+2: 92.7 BB (VPIP: 34.15, PFR: 21.95, 3Bet Preflop: 17.65, Hands: 41)
CO: 30.74 BB (VPIP: 31.08, PFR: 24.32, 3Bet Preflop: 15.15, Hands: 74)
Hero (BTN): 24.8 BB
SB: 43.92 BB (VPIP: 23.89, PFR: 14.94, 3Bet Preflop: 2.99, Hands: 180)
BB: 35.21 BB (VPIP: 22.63, PFR: 16.42, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 138)
UTG: 19.9 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG+1: 18.93 BB (VPIP: 23.40, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 47)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has K T

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (7.4 BB, 3 players) J A 3
BB checks, MP+2 bets 3.7 BB, Hero?
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-27-2018 , 02:14 PM
Villain is laggy over a small sample but I don't think he's betting half pot into 2 opponents on that flop with air here. So his range might include Ax/33/JJ-AA...hard to put much else in his range because you block any good combo draws (KQdd/QTdd). And I don't think he would CB with a weak draw. Lots of assumptions there however.

Against that range you're 41% and the only hands that would fold to a shove are the weak Aces. Everything else calls. So I'm not excited to shove here. With BB still to act especially, I would be inclined to just call and draw and hopefully BB will come along too.
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-28-2018 , 08:16 AM
I don't get the question; what options does OP select from? it seems to be very simple call, no?
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-28-2018 , 08:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cizixap
I don't get the question; what options does OP select from? it seems to be very simple call, no?
calling or shoving. I guess my problem with call is that on the turn we may not hit our draw and face a shove (19.1bb overbet on 14.8bb pot, assuming BB is folding flop) and we will not get the odds to call turn.
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-28-2018 , 12:25 PM
Raise flop as semi bluff
Representing strong Ace
Villian can only call with AK AQ or set which is low chance
High chance u take flop there
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-28-2018 , 12:26 PM
Call is bad with BB in hand
If BB check raise, what to do?
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-28-2018 , 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul
With BB still to act especially, I would be inclined to just call and draw and hopefully BB will come along too.
I agree with this , specially because we are OTB

And a question for you guys

I we were at BB and we check and MP bets and BTN calls...should we shove ?
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-28-2018 , 09:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miguelin43
I agree with this , specially because we are OTB

And a question for you guys

I we were at BB and we check and MP bets and BTN calls...should we shove ?
I would. Calling as button allows BB to put more money in the pot while not drastically reducing our chances of winning.
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-29-2018 , 08:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yonis9
calling or shoving. I guess my problem with call is that on the turn we may not hit our draw and face a shove (19.1bb overbet on 14.8bb pot, assuming BB is folding flop) and we will not get the odds to call turn.
There are a lotof outs OTR : 9 diamonds, 3 Quins that allow us to complete flush/straight. it's 12 outs or ~25%. The call is correct even if BB folds. If he calls, you got amazing pot odds.
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-29-2018 , 08:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cizixap
There are a lotof outs OTR : 9 diamonds, 3 Quins that allow us to complete flush/straight. it's 12 outs or ~25%. The call is correct even if BB folds. If he calls, you got amazing pot odds.
If he shoves OTR we need 36% equity to prifitbaly call, we are not getting it.

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Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-29-2018 , 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yonis9
If he shoves OTR we need 36% equity to prifitbaly call, we are not getting it.

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Okay, but I don't see any tragedy if that happens. We can correctly call OTF, even without any implied odds required. We sometimes miss OTR, that inevitably happens, but it's the pure game of probability. Also, it's multiway pot..I don't know anything about your playing style, but personally I really prefer to play more carefully when multiple people are involved.
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-29-2018 , 12:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cizixap
Okay, but I don't see any tragedy if that happens. We can correctly call OTF, even without any implied odds required. We sometimes miss OTR, that inevitably happens, but it's the pure game of probability. Also, it's multiway pot..I don't know anything about your playing style, but personally I really prefer to play more carefully when multiple people are involved.
Poker ia a game which we want to make money on the long run, by calling OTT without the odds you are loosing money on the long run. In addition you will have value hands in multiway pots (33, A3s, AJo on this spot), so you need bluffs/semi bluffs to be balanced, otherwise you will be very predictible and it will be very easy to play against you. Yes you will need to choose them more carefully, but I think our hand here is actualy one of our best candidates.

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Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-29-2018 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yonis9
Poker ia a game which we want to make money on the long run, by calling OTT without the odds you are loosing money on the long run. In addition you will have value hands in multiway pots (33, A3s, AJo on this spot), so you need bluffs/semi bluffs to be balanced, otherwise you will be very predictible and it will be very easy to play against you. Yes you will need to choose them more carefully, but I think our hand here is actualy one of our best candidates.

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well, if u think that your nice draw with 12 outs is a good candidate for a semi-bluff-shove in a small stakes game, multiway pot that helps to balance your strategy out...let's just agree to disagree..personally I was convinced in this very same forum to ignore GTO/balancing and related stuff in small stakes BI. gl bud, gg;
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-29-2018 , 03:04 PM
Even if you want to balance your strategy out, you might want to raise with you strongest hands and hands that
are too weak to call and at the same time too strong to fold..the gray area between call and fold parts of your range..

12 outs draw does not fall into any of those categories. If you had KdTc - that would be better candidate for x/r, I believe.

Last edited by cizixap; 07-29-2018 at 03:25 PM.
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-29-2018 , 04:33 PM
x/r kto 3 ways in a shallow pot seems pretty miserable.
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-29-2018 , 04:50 PM
Also, think about this:
Its so rare event in poker that you can be almost 100% sure that your call is break--even. It's basically the same as seeing the turn card for free(because EV of call is 0-ish). Is it just me or it's kinda unreasonable to deny this opportunity and block it by bloating a multiway pot with x3 PBS?
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-29-2018 , 10:49 PM
your only worthwhile post was your first; should have stopped there
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-30-2018 , 01:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gamboneee
your only worthwhile post was your first; should have stopped there
Yeah..duty call
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote
07-30-2018 , 03:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipimeowmeow
Raise flop as semi bluff
Representing strong Ace
Villian can only call with AK AQ or set which is low chance
High chance u take flop there
What strong Aces are you flatting pre in this spot? Or wheel Aces. Or JJ. Or 33. On the contrary, flatting reps a wider value range.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yonis9
calling or shoving. I guess my problem with call is that on the turn we may not hit our draw and face a shove (19.1bb overbet on 14.8bb pot, assuming BB is folding flop) and we will not get the odds to call turn.
If he overbet jams turn he probably has the best hand. Theres no divine entitlement to draw.
Combo draw 25bb deep Quote

      
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