BTN was playing super aggro, 63/63 with a 100 3-bet. Most of his 3-bets were normal, but the last 2 or 3 had been shoves (with no callers).

Are we calling with BB and UTG still left to act?


Yatahay Network - 275/550 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 59.42 BB
Hero (SB): 42.1 BB
BB: 43.78 BB
UTG: 55.03 BB
CO: 41.75 BB

5 players post ante of 0.12 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.09 BB) Hero has 9 9

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 59.3 BB and is all-in, Hero

If you enjoy flipping for 40bb+ stacks feel free to call, otherwise pretty easy fold. Even if V is super aggro I doubt we are more then 55% vs his 3 bet shoving range.

how many hands on him? I'm fairly confidant I'm calling here

Not a lot. Maybe like 20.

But it seemed more likely that this was a case of him being bad, and not just running good.

seems a call to me

I'm calling

I think you must call. So much EV. HJ is in the hand, you have 41bb, this is very bad, but still I will call.

They're all freaking nitwits FFS, JJ+.

One thing to consider is that a person playing 63/63 is difficult to do. So even over a 20 hand sample they're playing 2/3 of hands so that means they've raised 14 hands over that sample.

I'm more worried about the initial raiser than the jammer tbh. It's pretty close tho. I'm honestly not sure what to do.

Does anyone have a range for initial raiser and jammer? I think the jammer can be pretty wide tbh.

That was pretty much where I was at as well.

Since this is 5-handed we can assume that UTG might be opening a bit wider then usual. Lets say 20% of hands for the sake of the argument. 99 is a 55% favourite vs that range, lets say the open 13% if they are a bit more tight and then we are 53%. UTG will pretty much never call vs 3bet shove and reshove with anything worse then our hand. Then we still have the "maniac" & his range, not sure if you can label a player with just 20 hands, especialy considering it's 5 handed and people should adjust their ranges and open wider. Maybe he is just running good or he is correctly exploting the rest of the table playing to thight. So I don't think we can just assume his range is super wide. If we give him a 10% 3 bet shoving range, which is pretty reasonable, then we are 33% if UTG calls as well & and about 52% vs the 10% range.

I don't see how people are just going: easy call,...

Where are you in the tournament? If there's no ICM implications I think it's a clear call. V has a 100% 3b and has been shoving the last several hands. You have 72% equity against a random hand, 66% against top 63% of hands and even if we're being generous here you have 60% against top 1/3 of hands.

Yes the initial raiser is of slight concern, but it's five handed so not an UTG range, and that V is probably only calling with QQ+ AK+ once you call. Only 40bb deep I don't think that turns it into a fold.

Embrace the variance for a v good shot at spinning up a big stack.