Is a clear fold on the river? - MTT Poker Strategy - Multi Table Tournament Poker Forum

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Is a clear fold on the river?

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03-20-2021 , 08:27 PM

CanYouKickIt

stranger

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 7

ITM in a 300cap game on PS. Hero is in 5th place and Viliain is in 1st. I didn't 3! as villain was fairly tight, and I wasn't looking to juice up the pot OOP vs. their UTG range with ICM implications becoming more relevant.

Is this a clear fold? Should I be x/c river?

PokerStars - 350/700 Ante 85 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 6.03 BB
Hero (SB): 52.33 BB
BB: 53.59 BB
UTG: 62.33 BB
UTG+1: 25.8 BB
MP: 6.44 BB
MP+1: 21.9 BB
CO: 15.94 BB

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.47 BB) Hero has Q

UTG raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.7 BB, fold

Flop: (6.37 BB, 2 players) Q

Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: (6.37 BB, 2 players) J

Hero bets 8 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

River: (22.37 BB, 2 players) 7

Hero bets 19.02 BB, UTG raises to 52 BB and is all-in, Hero.....

Last edited by CanYouKickIt; 03-20-2021 at 08:50 PM.

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03-21-2021 , 04:29 AM

Exhale

banned

Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 36

I think check/calling river is the better play in this spot.
As played I'm getting all my chips in.

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03-21-2021 , 06:11 AM

streetwalkincheeta

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 5,132

Check calling river is almost certainly significantly worse than betting.

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03-21-2021 , 06:43 AM

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,670

Quote:

Originally Posted by streetwalkincheeta

Check calling river is almost certainly significantly worse than betting.

+1

normally when you see these snap call situations posted here the villain turns over the nuts

you can't get results oriented, especially in a low stakes lol donkament, checking flop makes your hand pretty disguised to the average player pool of those, he's just as likely to think he's betting for value with a jack as he is binking it with KT/T8

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03-27-2021 , 08:45 PM

AllStreets2Rio

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 35

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanYouKickIt

Turn: (6.37 BB, 2 players) J

Hero bets 8 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

What was your thinking behind this bet and the sizing?

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04-04-2021 , 09:35 PM

HUHandEH

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 5,458

It's always a Trip when you got Trips, go for the ride bro

Please bet Flop and shove turn.

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04-05-2021 , 01:45 PM

TelefonKioskRu

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 39

With how big the pot is on the river I'm never folding here.

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04-08-2021 , 01:33 AM

Raistlyn M

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 254

I would bet flop and not be folding river as played (unless I had some insane read.)

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04-09-2021 , 01:55 AM

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,077

otr 30bb to win 93bb so need to win 3/4 times to break even which is 25% success rate when we are pretty much at the topish of our range of all the hands we can have here by the river = call

We have worse hands in our river range that get here like this that serve as better b/f like Jx.. possibly (not recommended) mix in some worse Qs as b/f otr but never the nut Q imo

Last edited by wowsooooted; 04-09-2021 at 02:15 AM.

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04-09-2021 , 09:29 AM

#10

bearer

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688

Folding would be theoretically poor but if you always folded bluffcatchers to river raise after betting generously in low stakes you'd make more chips than the "unexploitable" guy.

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