Chip EV calculation help
06-15-2018
, 09:10 PM
Hi I'm running in to some problems trying to calculate a simple scenario where sb shoves for 10bigs vs the big blinds 10bigs no antees
Big blind needs to call 9 bigs to win a total of 20 bigs
9/(9+10+1)=0.45%
so big blind needs 45% equity to break even. (Imagine we call and have precisely 45% equity.)
I want to see if this is true but here is where i run in to problems when I try to make a calculation
(0.45*20)+(0.55*-10)=+3.5bb isnt this number supposed to be 0 since if we call the shove with any less than 45% equity then we are losing and vice versa we are winning money so this doesnt match with the breakeven percentage(45%)?
Sorry for the messsy calculations but its late
, appreciate any help
Big blind needs to call 9 bigs to win a total of 20 bigs
9/(9+10+1)=0.45%
so big blind needs 45% equity to break even. (Imagine we call and have precisely 45% equity.)
I want to see if this is true but here is where i run in to problems when I try to make a calculation
(0.45*20)+(0.55*-10)=+3.5bb isnt this number supposed to be 0 since if we call the shove with any less than 45% equity then we are losing and vice versa we are winning money so this doesnt match with the breakeven percentage(45%)?
Sorry for the messsy calculations but its late
, appreciate any help
06-16-2018
, 05:25 AM
Quote:
You have to be consistent with what you use as your "starting point".
Case 1: Calculate your chip stack after the hand is over
Call
45% of the time you will win the hand and wind up with 20 chips in your stack
55% of the time you will lose the hand and wind up with 0 chips in your stack
Expected final chips if you call = (.45)(20) + (.55)(0) = 9
Fold
When you fold your final chip stack will be 10-1 = 9.
These two are equal at your break-even call equity.
Case 2: Calculate your change in chips relative to your chip stack before posting the big blind
Call
45% of the time you will win the hand and and add 10 chips to your stack
55% of the time you will lose the hand and lose 10 chips from your stack
Expected change in chips if you call = (.45)(+10) + (.55)(-10) = -1
Fold
When you fold you will lose 1 chip from your stack = -1
These two are equal at your break-even call equity.
Case 3: Calculate your change in chips relative to your chip stack after posting the big blind
Call
45% of the time you will win the hand and and add 11 chips to your stack
55% of the time you will lose the hand and lose 9 chips from your stack
Expected change in chips if you call = (.45)(+11) + (.55)(-9) = 0
Fold
When you fold your chip stack remains unchanged compared to your chip stack after you posted the big blind = 0
These two are equal at your break-even call equity.
Case 1: Calculate your chip stack after the hand is over
Call
45% of the time you will win the hand and wind up with 20 chips in your stack
55% of the time you will lose the hand and wind up with 0 chips in your stack
Expected final chips if you call = (.45)(20) + (.55)(0) = 9
Fold
When you fold your final chip stack will be 10-1 = 9.
These two are equal at your break-even call equity.
Case 2: Calculate your change in chips relative to your chip stack before posting the big blind
Call
45% of the time you will win the hand and and add 10 chips to your stack
55% of the time you will lose the hand and lose 10 chips from your stack
Expected change in chips if you call = (.45)(+10) + (.55)(-10) = -1
Fold
When you fold you will lose 1 chip from your stack = -1
These two are equal at your break-even call equity.
Case 3: Calculate your change in chips relative to your chip stack after posting the big blind
Call
45% of the time you will win the hand and and add 11 chips to your stack
55% of the time you will lose the hand and lose 9 chips from your stack
Expected change in chips if you call = (.45)(+11) + (.55)(-9) = 0
Fold
When you fold your chip stack remains unchanged compared to your chip stack after you posted the big blind = 0
These two are equal at your break-even call equity.
