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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-12-2019, 10:06 PM   #1
rockville9
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Check or bet and bet sizing

Scene: daily $125 tournament, final 6, top 2 paid
I have chip lead by about $1k, but I honestly thought I was 2nd in chips. My stack is about $31k.

Blinds 600/1200 no antes, hero is in hijack, folded to me.

Raise to 2700 with TT. Villain calls from bb.

Flop 842r

I feel certain I have best hand and don't want to blow the other big stack out. He could have high Broadway or suited aces, low pairs, maybe a gutter, or possibly an 8.

He checks to me, I bet 3200, vil calls.

Turn pairs the 2. Check to me, I bet 3500, he raises to about 10k, I shove.

Looking back, shoving seemed bad, since he turns over Q2o.

Can I just call his raise? Should I be betting paired boards like that? I feel that shutting down just because the board pairs is too weak.

I shoved because I felt that since the board is so dry, he could be trying to raise me off my hand if he thinks I have A hi or even K hi. I felt like having a 2 in his hand is really slim.

Was my raise pre too small? Was my flop bet too small?

Do I want to get him to fold? I really feel like I just had a bad run out. I don't think I want to make a bet that will let him fold a worse hand that could call me.
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:55 PM   #2
xamlop
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Re: Check or bet and bet sizing

Your cbet is too big if anything but should be fine. Barrel is very std. In general it's more of a b/c than a b/shove because he mostly either has 2x or some kind of low equity draw that might bluff river, but given stack sizes shove to protect our hand if we're calling all rivers anyway is not absurd.

The thing is though a lot of people are just not bluffing and this is very far from an obvious bluffing spot for him, nobody tries to rep bottom trips to get overpairs to fold, and fold can seriously be considered. We're 95% bluffcatching and he doesn't have that much to bluff with (56/57/67/35 ?) even A3/A5 will usually just c-c and so few people c-r 8x there. Slightly better if the turn brings a FD...
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Old 03-13-2019, 02:49 PM   #3
nonsimplesimon
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Re: Check or bet and bet sizing

Keep your sizing smaller all around.

When you shove the turn what hands call that has you beat besides 99?
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