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Can we make an impossible fold? Can we make an impossible fold?

09-07-2020 , 06:02 PM
Completely readless $5.50 4 Max WCOOP:
PokerStars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Hold'em No Limit - 1,250/2,500 (325 ante) - 4 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker











UTG: 51,110 (20 bb)
BU (Hero): 211,335 (85 bb)
SB: 216,484 (87 bb)
BB: 56,445 (23 bb)

Pre-Flop: (5,050) Hero is BTN with J J
1 fold, Hero raises to 5,000, SB calls 3,750, 1 fold

Flop: (13,800) 7 T 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 13,800, SB raises to 211,159 (all-in), [b]Hero ?
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
09-07-2020 , 09:44 PM
Unless you got a read that the villian is an impossible nit I think we have to call. TOo many crazy things happen in 5 dollar tournaments
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
09-08-2020 , 03:43 AM
I dont really play 4 max so I'm as bit out of synch with the levels of aggression but my thought is that this is several hours into the tourney so by a process of natural selection there are more decent players there
people don't normally want to punt away a big stack -so I don't think this is often worse value like Tx - we can also discount nuts type hands to some extent. Most likely this is a draw or vulnerable value hand like 2p. so we are mostly slight favourite but sometimes significant dog
So its kind of close
I thought I was going to end the post by saying maybe we should fold but I don't think I can. The off chance that V is fos tilts me towards a call
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
09-08-2020 , 07:19 AM
I don't think we can realistically exclude Tx or FD when villain takes this line readless in a $5 WCOOP.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
09-08-2020 , 09:04 AM
On this stack size I am folding to fight another day. This guy will likely donate your chips post flop at another point in time. But that is just my opinion
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
09-08-2020 , 04:04 PM
Super weird but for me I sigh fold and wait for a better spot.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
09-09-2020 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by streetwalkincheeta
I don't think we can realistically exclude Tx or FD when villain takes this line readless in a $5 WCOOP.
+1
Absolutely gross that he shoves with his stack.

Why full pot OTF?

why not half pot?
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-26-2020 , 04:10 PM
That flop potting the crucial part that leads me towards the impossible fold

When you pot , villain correctly reads you as overpair, that’s why he shoves his two pair + hand.

In game I probably don’t fold because $5 MTT and I’m always on tilt but it’s probably correct especially if you are good

Did u shark scope villain after the hand
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-26-2020 , 04:40 PM
I did. Villian had bad stats.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-26-2020 , 05:59 PM
was he on a flush draw?
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-27-2020 , 05:40 PM
He most likely would’ve raised pf with kk, aa, and probably qq too. It’s possible he flipped a set or two pair from the blinds but he probably makes the same move with any ax of spades, 10x of spades. Hero should call.


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Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-27-2020 , 08:06 PM
playing as deep as you are, its a fold. Can find a better spot later on
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-28-2020 , 03:42 AM
When I read the title I thought we were gonna be talking about folding a set or a K-high flush or something.

You've got one pair and villain just bet 8 times the pot.

Just sigh. Fold. You've got a plenty deep stack to get a better spot.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-28-2020 , 10:36 AM
I think I can find the fold button here
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-28-2020 , 02:49 PM
Of all the hands that shove here, most are draws or draws with a pair of tens. Would he not 3b preflop with tens or sevens? It is 4 handed, without any history, If he will flat your 2bb pre with a better hand then I think that’s a risk you have to take. I’m not sure what the right move is but I’m confident you have the best hand. What was the result?


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Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-30-2020 , 02:13 AM
I don't think I'm folding this when villain can have spades and Tx and people think that villain can have 2pr with T7s then they have 89s too.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-30-2020 , 05:00 AM
fold with no doubt. enough chips for a better chance.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-30-2020 , 08:33 AM
As you dont know if he's an idiot or not, I'm folding.
You have bet close to 20k which still leaves you with a big stack if you do fold.
They usually have a set in my experience, but hey that's just me.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-30-2020 , 12:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rayfox111
As you dont know if he's an idiot or not, I'm folding.
You have bet close to 20k which still leaves you with a big stack if you do fold.
They usually have a set in my experience, but hey that's just me.
9 combinations of sets available, 6 of which he may have 3bet preflop, 100s of bluff/draw combinations available.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-30-2020 , 01:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tripled83
9 combinations of sets available, 6 of which he may have 3bet preflop, 100s of bluff/draw combinations available.
There are also 18 combos that give him 2 pair. Even if we only give him the suited T7, 73 and T3, that's 6 combos.

And there maybe hundreds of draws, but I think we can assume when a guy overbets by that much that, unless he's crazy, he's got at least a combo draw: straight and flush draws, or a pair with a flush draw. Maybe a flush draw with two overcards. If you limit to that, there are many many less combos. Don't forget that we have the Js.

TXs: 9
AQs, KQs, Q9s: 3 (He's 3 betting AKs and we have the J)
89s, 45s, 56s, 46s: 4

So that's 16 combo draw combinations, and it could be less if he's 3 betting AQs and not even playing T2s or T4s.

And there are 9 combos of sets and 6 suited combos of two pair (maybe more if he'd also play T7o, etc.). Even if we say he's got a ATo or KTo and is just spazzing to price out a flush draw, that's still only 12 more combos.

But he's betting 8 times the pot, so you've got to be right waaaaaay more often than you're wrong here.

If he's got 15 combos that are crushing you and 28 combos that are behind you (all with a lot of equity), that's not even close to being what you need to make this call.

(EDIT: Just realized that some of these draws like AQs and KQs are actually ahead of us right now, which makes it even worse.)

(EDIT EDIT: There's also a non-zero chance that he flatted AA-QQ to trap us.)

Last edited by Fletcher2323; 12-30-2020 at 01:49 PM.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-31-2020 , 03:52 PM
People in the SB aren't flatting 73 and T3 suited come on..

Flatting QQ-AA in the SB in 4 max when we want to be 3betting more often is also not great.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-31-2020 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by killer_kill
People in the SB aren't flatting 73 and T3 suited come on..

Flatting QQ-AA in the SB in 4 max when we want to be 3betting more often is also not great.
I agree he shouldn’t be doing any of that but he also shouldn’t be going all in for 8x the pot on the flop, but here we are.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-31-2020 , 09:27 PM
I honestly think check, take a Free Card with your entire range. Could be a Bluff, how do you know? If you knew he was bad, I think he makes an incredible mistake by hoping you make a hand. You can flat pocket Qs pre, I think checking is better, cause we can bet same amount OTT. Enjoy the Equity. You don't need to Cbet this Flop.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
12-31-2020 , 10:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fletcher2323
I agree he shouldn’t be doing any of that but he also shouldn’t be going all in for 8x the pot on the flop, but here we are.
You don't think it's more likely someone just over jams with big equity or Tx with spades? I could maybe see a villain flatting T3s but I'd say the spew between flatting 73s and T3s in the SB as opposed to jamming for way too big is pretty significant right? Which I agree the jam size is note worthy also obv.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote
01-01-2021 , 04:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by killer_kill
You don't think it's more likely someone just over jams with big equity or Tx with spades? I could maybe see a villain flatting T3s but I'd say the spew between flatting 73s and T3s in the SB as opposed to jamming for way too big is pretty significant right? Which I agree the jam size is note worthy also obv.
I think some of the time he's jamming with a worse hand than JJ, but in order to making calling correct with this size bet it's got to be almost all the time.

We are calling 192k to win 422k, so we've got to be win 45 pct of the time to break even. Since it's a tourney and we ought to be preserving our stack, we really should be picking spots with an edge, so say 47-48 pct.

Against his sets, we're 12 percent.
2 pair: 28 percent.
flush draw with two overcards: 46 pct (or 55 pct with only one)
flush draw with a pair: 52 percent
flush draw with a pair and an overcard: 49 percent
flush draw with a straight draw (89s): 54 percent
Against a straight draw with no flush draw: 76 pct
Against just AT or KT: 80 pct
A naked flush draw with no overcards or straight draw (92s): 67 pct

I just don't think that if you take his range that you get to 47-48 pct.
Can we make an impossible fold? Quote

      
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