Quote:
Originally Posted by tripled83
9 combinations of sets available, 6 of which he may have 3bet preflop, 100s of bluff/draw combinations available.
There are also 18 combos that give him 2 pair. Even if we only give him the suited T7, 73 and T3, that's 6 combos.
And there maybe hundreds of draws, but I think we can assume when a guy overbets by that much that, unless he's crazy, he's got at least a combo draw: straight and flush draws, or a pair with a flush draw. Maybe a flush draw with two overcards. If you limit to that, there are many many less combos. Don't forget that we have the Js.
TXs: 9
AQs, KQs, Q9s: 3 (He's 3 betting AKs and we have the J)
89s, 45s, 56s, 46s: 4
So that's 16 combo draw combinations, and it could be less if he's 3 betting AQs and not even playing T2s or T4s.
And there are 9 combos of sets and 6 suited combos of two pair (maybe more if he'd also play T7o, etc.). Even if we say he's got a ATo or KTo and is just spazzing to price out a flush draw, that's still only 12 more combos.
But he's betting 8 times the pot, so you've got to be right waaaaaay more often than you're wrong here.
If he's got 15 combos that are crushing you and 28 combos that are behind you (all with a lot of equity), that's not even close to being what you need to make this call.
(EDIT: Just realized that some of these draws like AQs and KQs are actually ahead of us right now, which makes it even worse.)
(EDIT EDIT: There's also a non-zero chance that he flatted AA-QQ to trap us.)
Last edited by Fletcher2323; 12-30-2020 at 01:49 PM.