Hi guys

Not a clue what to do here....does villain have actually a 4bet/bluff range here? I know i block AA and KK but his line looks like that

163 hands on him:

30/21/6; 4bet 15% (4) ; i think he was playing good, so no crazy guy here

So we:

1.- Shove (uugghh)
2.- Call
3.- * Sigh fold *

Any thought about villain´s range is appreciated...

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $4.50 Buy-in (30/60 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 2,899 (48.3 bb)
BB: 1,778 (29.6 bb)
UTG+2: 3,726 (62.1 bb)
MP1: 3,109 (51.8 bb)
MP2: 3,041 (50.7 bb)
Hero (MP3): 3,118 (52 bb)
CO: 6,303 (105.1 bb)
BTN: 1,751 (29.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A K
UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to 124, MP2 folds, Hero raises to 474, 4 folds, MP1 raises to 1,020, Hero ???

I think we can flat this

Jam or you can flat. Don't think you can ever consider a fold if AKs

Jamming or flatting seems fine. I'd opt to flat the majority of the time since AKs plays well post flop and if you hit top pair top kicker you're good to go with it. If you jam and get called there's a lot of their range you're going to be flipping with which I guess is personal preference I prefer to keep the flips to a minimum when I'm 50bb deep.

His stats say he's a busy player, what he thinks of you also comes into the equation.
I think calling his reraise is best, if you miss the flop bin it if he bets again.
Your behind any pair, and with 50bb theres plenty of time to chip up.

Thanks guys

Flatting seemed best option and probably folding vs cbet but against the best flop on the world

Still nobody answered one of my questions: what range do you assign villain?

I'd prob just jam honestly esp if you're not comfortable navigating postflop.

I assume his range looks something like QQ+,AKs, AKo at least for 50BB effective and him not being UTG but UTG+2 (right?). But my experience is that this is super player pool dependent and can differ quite a bit in lower stakes. I don't play with a HUD so if I look at this spot disregarding that info but knowing it is a reasonable player, I am jamming every time.

Suppose we jam and get called 100 percent (by QQ+,AK) and never a fold then it is a break-even jam by my math (41 percent equity needed, which is exactly what you have against that range). Any fold, bluff or wider range makes you money.

Meaning the only time you lose money is if he 3bets tighter then that, which I doubt or at least personally wouldn't worry about. He might flat QQ, but at the same time he might trap AA and KK some percent of the time. He could definitely flat AK too, but if he does that he probably also sometimes slow plays AA and KK I think.

In the end the specific math is dependent on your reads. I play mostly on not tracked sites, but to be honest with you, at these stakes I am almost never folding AK for 50-75 BB or less, barring extremely crazy situations. Even deeper I usually get it in as I am quite an (loose)-aggro player, that doesn't match with nitty folds haha.

A HUD probably would change that a bit as you can more easily identify crazy people, but for me even if I would lose a little bit EV against what the range of my opponent SHOULD look like, I think I make more of that back due to people 4betting weird combo's or just being speewy.

EDIT flat is fine too btw, I usually push the edges pre as I have no issue flipping etc and am not the greatest post. I think if you play well postflop flatting is perfectly fine.

I agree with what's been said here, and assigning villain a range is difficult without more context and history. I thin nutlow's range seems pretty reasonable, but I think some looser players would 4-bet JJ, AQs, and even some 4-bet bluffs like A5s, but it also depends on what your image is as well.

Like others, I think flat or jam works and a large factor is also dependent on your post flop play- what will you do if you miss the flop? what if it is under cards or broadways without a FD? will villain just jam any flop if you flat here?

If their range is QQ+/AKs (AKo adds a lot of extra combos you seemingly don't want given you're ranging them QQ+; even if you do add AKo we're only 41%) and there is no disparity between the 4b and call range of our jam then we lose money.

Well yeah, if we range them QQ+, AKs and assume no folds then yeah, we would lose money. However I feel this is a stretch for a range in a 4.5, at least in my experience. So for me it would still be a shove/call.

Also: why would he 4bet AKs but not AKo? I would expect it the other way around if split. I think AKs plays better postflop OOP (or IP for that matter).

And if it is a player that distinquishes these differences, isn't he likely to slowplay some and bluff some? Helping our case.

My overall reasoning still is, if we are break-even in one of the worst case scenarios when ranging, I am running my equity everytime. In these stakes to much crazy stuff happens which would be missed out value, but maybe thats just me.


EDIT: This is what you mean right? The double if threw me off haha. Apologies if I misunderstood.

Vs 50bb this 3bet...What is this? 8 blinds? It is really hard to fold now. AKs...But you can't shove here. Vs this guy. I think minus 2-3 blinds. At least..Maybe BE. Ok , this is a BE shove. Call? . Hoping for gutshot and backdoor . And , yes, the Ace....His range? QQ rare...Very rare. AK often, very often. Very rare something else. Ofc KK+. I don't know. This is a fold...Such an ugly spot. You can call, you have "rights" to do that. But I don't know postflop. I don't want to be there. You must call this shove almost at any flop. Blind...What is the difference!? Fold, shove, call, everything is wrong here. Ugly spot...