15$ MTT 27 left out of around 250

Seat 1: Samuz84 (78720 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG (44960 in chips)
Seat 3: +1 (24049 in chips)
Seat 4: MP (Hero) (44906 in chips) 37 BB
Seat 5: MP2 (16710 in chips)
Seat 6: MP3 (116807 in chips)
Seat 7: CO (55598 in chips)
Seat 8: BTN (16279 in chips)
Seat 9: SB (18774 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qc Jc]


Hero raises 1500 to 2700
CO: calls 2700
BB: calls 1500

*** FLOP *** [6c 9s Qs]
BB: checks
HERO: bets 3917
CO: calls 3917
BB: folds

*** TURN *** [6c 9s Qs] [Kd]

HERO: checks
CO: bets 8400
HERO: calls 8400

*** RIVER *** [6c 9s Qs Kd] [5c]
HERO: checks
CO: bets 31200

HERO??

On the river he bets pot size, putting me all in if I call.
My thinking is that such a large bet polarizes his range, he either has JT or a missed fd or missed OESD. I don't see him betting KQ so large.

Considering that I hold the J, which is a blocker to JT, and I don't block any of his bluffs as I don't have spades, could I call here?

The cutoff for his bluffs here is 33%. You know that at small stakes tournies people normally have 0% or 66% in these spots.

For those reasons without something to suggest he is a 66% guy I would fold the turn because there are many times more 0% guys out there.

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That's a good point but are you sure you can fold the turn? I think folding the river is probably the correct play but the turn seems too nit to me. If I am the CO I am going to bet the king with FD because you check on the turn seems super weak. I think folding the turn avoids a tough situation but you are letting the CO print money here.

BTW if I am the CO and I have ATs AJs, I am playing that hand as he played it.

There is no missed OESD. I think he plays KQ/JT exactly the same way and I really don't see why it wouldn't be the case.

You do block the nuts and none of the FD so probably not the worst combo to hero if you think vilain floats the flop very light and turns a lot of stuff into a bluff. If the only airs he has is missed FD I think that's not enough combos to hero because he has so many value combos, for all we know he might take you to value town with as thin as KT wich would make c-c river pretty disastrous.

C-c turn (and also doing it with AA, some Kx/slowplays to have stuff we're never folding river when we do that) and c-f river seems fine in general. It's obviously quite vilain-dependant, we need some kind of read on his strategy.

Any reads?
c/f turn readless

really? You re the 2nd person to say that already. I thought it was a standard c/c on the turn. Can you elaborate more on that? Aren't we giving him to much space to bluff if we c/f? I mean the turn check basically says we don't have a K, and he might be betting all his fd.

No reads btw, the dude just got on the table.

If we c/c turn I think we have to call this river and that just seems awful without any reads.

I basically think you are giving a random too much credit. This can be a call down, but I don't think it's any good readless

^ What this guy says.

Turn call is standard imo especially with the gutshot. Don't really care about river, you have a ~0EV bluffcatcher.

Why?

I think u played it fine if you folded the river

leaning towards x/f turn

I don't think we can c/c turn then c/f brick rivers because if we assume villain is capable of attacking our capped range on the turn I would think he is going to be betting too many rivers to make it profitable to call/fold.

I am definitely rusty rn tho, thoughts?

When I run his range on Flopzilla, I get:

70 total combos on the river

16 combos of straights
8 combos of 2p
21 combos of top pair - His value range cuts off in here somewhere. Based on the runout and your river check, he could bet all 21 of these.

For a total runout of 45 hands

7 Weak Pair - probably checks these.

7 Ace High
11 No made hand.

Only leaving 18 possible bluffs. You need 32% for a break even call. So he needs to bluff this entire range 83% of the time for a call. There are a few players who may bet this range 100%, but for the most part, players do not bluff the river often enough, so a a player pool assumption, you cannot expect that the average is going to be anywhere near the 83% you need. I think expecting this range to bet 30% in the player pool is optimistic.

So you have to fold.

I dont think its fair to assume he is capable of that. Effectively you'd be awarding him fold equity for bets that havent been made.

Put it like this, on brick run outs you'd be vulnerable to exploitation from the top X% who are capable of applying overwhelming pressure (dont even know if capable is the right word, we should protect out check range with Kx+ that go call-call so seems like buttom smashing). But in your alternative, you are vulnerable to exploitation from the 80% who bluff once then give up. Having no hands that go call-fold makes 2008s one and done the ideal exploitative strat.