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Call or Fold Half-Pot River Bet?

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09-24-2017 , 12:07 PM

CIUC0

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 62

Not too many hands against V, but bubble has just burst and he is 31/25 over 32 (and recently lost a quarter of his stack) so I'm playing him pretty wide here. (LP flatter was big stack at the table so I had him playing pretty wide too, but he folded to my turn bet).

I bet turn here so any overs (AKQ10/9) don't get a look at a free river. After checking the flop V flats my half-pot bet, and then Q hits the river. I'm guessing nothing worse than me calls so I check it over, and V now decides to make it half-pot himself. After the turn I thought he had some Ax combo, potentially a low-pair, but his river bet screams value. Any advice?

Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (2,500/5,000 blinds, 625 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 587,191 (117.4 bb)
Hero (BB): 157,964 (31.6 bb)
UTG+1: 68,148 (13.6 bb)
UTG+2: 155,107 (31 bb)
MP1: 194,943 (39 bb)
MP2: 125,137 (25 bb)
MP3: 205,200 (41 bb)
CO: 710,585 (142.1 bb)
BTN: 398,114 (79.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8

UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 11,000, 3 folds, CO calls 11,000, 2 folds, Hero calls 6,000

Flop: (41,125) J

(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks

Turn: (41,125) 5

(3 players)
Hero bets 20,000, UTG+2 calls 20,000, CO folds

River: (81,125) Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 38,940, Hero ?

Spoiler:

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09-24-2017 , 02:18 PM

Snake-glory

adept

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 959

Depends on his stats such as cbet and river aggression. I think it's a fold here. He didn't cbet flop so there is probably no pair. Maybe it's a slowplay with set or full house (77) or just check with high card vs 2 opponents. I think he had something on the turn because after your bet there is still another player acting after him, so it's a set or flush draw. River he bets almost 50% vs your check. Set, full house, queen, flush draw. If you think he can bluff often then call him, but I would fold here. I think there is a jack, AQd or KQd.

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09-24-2017 , 02:35 PM

FreakDaddy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 18,006

Looks like a pretty straight forward call. No reason for him to check any made hand on that flop in the sandwiched position. There can't be any pot control if he has QQ+ on that flop, so considering he's lost lately and also bubble just bursting I'd be calling. Think you're good much more than 25% here.

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09-26-2017 , 12:47 PM

Stratify

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 68

I'd have folded 3rd pair as well.
I don't think you need to probe the turn oop, when you already have a medium pair. I think he'd have cbet air on that flop. So the hand went pretty much as expected.
I play lower stakes though, so don't listen to me

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09-27-2017 , 06:04 AM

CIUC0

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 62

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stratify

That's fair; looking back I think I was too aggressive and could have just tried to get to a cheap showdown and let either of these guys barrel into me.

@Freak, I see you're point about the odds, and I really wanted to call here, but calling and losing left me crippled so I figured it was better to let it go and wait for a better spot.

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09-27-2017 , 08:45 AM

Darth_Maul

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 4,434

I agree he would bet a pair on the flop but there are plenty of Jx in his range he could be slowplaying. Several Qx hands hit the river too, especially suited diamonds. The only hands you beat are busted diamond draws. Since you're getting 3:1 you only have to be good 25% of the time so you'd have to range it out to see how close you are.

Sent from my SM-G920W8 using Tapatalk

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