Both villains seems loose players , although sample is only 30 hands

C/R is a big leak in my game , i am never sure how to use it...

Is this a nice spot to C/R all in? I am not sure i have a lot of FE given that V looks loose and by his bet size


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $4.50 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 125 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37934978

CO: 69,959 (70 bb)
BTN: 113,663 (113.7 bb)
Hero (SB): 20,846 (20.8 bb)
BB: 43,650 (43.7 bb)
UTG: 113,973 (114 bb)
MP: 58,465 (58.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q J
2 folds, CO calls 1,000, BTN folds, Hero completes, BB checks

Flop: (3,750) 2 9 T (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 3,750 Hero ??

Just to clarify : CO folded after BB's bet, right?

I wouldn't hate a raise or a jam pre-flop. C/R all in is good here, calling with your stack is just spewing chips.

Yeah , sorry , I erased him by mistake

+1 to jam pre.

napkin math for post-flop:
donk bet indicates that BB hit a good value OTF. a set or two pairs probably, so if you shove then he most likely calls you and it means that
1) you don't have any fold equity.
2) you only have 8 outs to win or ~32% win equity. Q and J can't be included in your outs.

so if you shove, knowing that he calls, your pot odds are slightly below 50% and it does not seem to be profitable action..so..fold..

Putting BB on 2p or better here is ridiculous.

The only set villain can have is 222 and that's not many combos. Hand is too weak to jam pre but completing seems fine. I think a c/r is fine here. You should have one overcard alive sometimes when called and if they fold that's fine too.

and why is that, do you care to explain? My reasoning is:
1) V has 92, T2, 22 in his range
2) It's $4.5 buy-in. People don't play reasonably all the time. Donk bet sometime actually indicates that they have value. I saw a lot of situations like this in these games.

If you have anything meaningful to say, say it and provide some evidence. Otherwise you message:
1) is not helpful
2) false by default
3) should not posted in the 1st place

You would like to c/r all-in in spots like these when you think you have fold equity against villains cbet range and equity against his calling range once you shove. His range is capped and if he calls with TT-99,22,ATs,KTs,QTs+,T9s,ATo,KTo,QTo+,JTo you have around 43% equity which means he only has to fold ~13% of the time for the play to be break even.

I think given his sizing he probably isn't folding often, but I would say this probably a +EV play. You need to take close spots like these, but always considering ICM of course, because chip ups like these allow us to run deeper and more likely to get the first place

https://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-calculator/

But OK, there are various reasons of donk betting and it might be too narrow view to only consider that V bets here only with the top 3% of his range(set or 2 pairs). maybe he donk bets with more than that.
I put it in CREV assuming that his pre-flop range looks like this - because he didn't raise pre-flop but just completed.


and here is the plot that shows the dependency of hero's check-raise EV from the % of range(from the top) with which BB donk bets on this flop.


So, it seems that if BB bets with top 30% of his range and never folds in response to hero's x/r then this x/r is -EV decision. And you know how these 30% looks like? Any pair, any king-high, any ace-high suited. Can BB really donk bet with these hands? absolutely.

And this make sense on napkin as well. the max number of your outs is 14 : 8 outs to complete the straight and 6 outs to complete a pair. In reality though this number is less than 14 because:
1) V blocks some of your outs with Ace-high or King-high cards
2) if you hit a pair it still can lose to better pair.

so, the number of outs i would say is 10 which gives us 40% equity. it's not enough if BB always calls your x/r.

I didn’t say he couldn’t have 2p or better. I said putting him on that is ridiculous and I stand by it. Pointing out incorrect information in posts is indeed helpful imo.

no its not unless you care to provide the explanation of why do you think it's incorrect. no one gives a damn about where you stand unless you can prove that it's useful/valuable/helpful.

I like the call pre. It’s just better to go postflop with this hand

He’s right it’s indeed ridiculous to assume villain only has 2p+ here. We have the best possible draw we can have in this spot we ain't very deep and we do have some fold equity in this spot even though it isn’t much. Just JAM and hope for the best.

I think that "just JAM and hope for the best" is the worst possible action in poker. This is how fish plays. He throw chips in the middle and hopes for the best. You better go play roulette if you think it's a good idea - your ROI will be larger.
As for donk betting range, few posts above I provided mathemetical explanation of why it's not profitable to x/r here even if BB donk bets with top 30% of his range. Argue with the math, not with me.

Your math is based on villain bets his entire value range like this and has no bluffs? I mean how is that a reasonable approach to the hand. I mean if villain only has 22 when he does it you are indeed correct this is not very profitable but what happens is he will have worse draws and he will have folds sometimes too.

Your math is based on bad range work so it's basically useless.

I don't think that we can accurately estimate a range behind the donk betting. Hence the math is based on assumption that V has some value when he donk bets. I think it's reasonable assumption. I don't think that he donk bets with nothing. It just does not make any sense.
\gg bud. keep hoping for the best. say hi when you end up on the WSOP final table some day...

I can't really follow those charts, too many colors. What range are you assigning villain?

Raise pre. QJo doesn't play great multiway and you don't want to let BB play for free. It's also annoyingly difficult to range opponents in unraised pots. With 21bb to start I might just shove pre. The other option is raise 3.5-4x to isolate the limper (and possibly take it down pre), and then you have a lower SPR if you hit anything on the flop.

As played I would x/r there all day. I interpret villain's pot bet as indicating he has a hand but wants to end it now. He could be betting there with any Tx/9x even 2x. Remember he checked the BB so he can have 72o and be trying to steal the pot with his bottom pair. He can also have pairs 33-88.

So you definitely have fold equity against a good portion of that range, plus 8 outs to the nuts and possibly another 6 clean outs to top pair if called. You can't x/c and hope he doesn't bet when you miss the turn.

Some value? you're saying 40% equity you realize that for to be in that bad of a spot he only does this with like top pair and better as in like no bluffs no weaker draws. So what's your plan in this spot? Will you only go all in with hands that has this range crushed? Can you really say that your that confident in your read that he doesn't have hands such as J8, 87 or simply random stuff that bets?

I'll try to remember a shoutout

Jam pre or raise to like 4.5x and jam that flop would have both been ok. QJo realizes its equity pretty quickly on the flop since you can hit top pair or a multitude of straight draws, including those that would include two overs. Jam probably slightly better if you can stomach the variance.

If V doesn’t have much fold equity and we’re rarely ahead when facing a bet, I think best play is to open shove flop. May get some weaker Ts to fold (but unlikely) but prob not getting called by 9x or a Kx gutter.

QJo is simply too weak to raise here just complete. We can have better draws if we have backdoor fd with it which def helps esp if want to raise flop ever and jam turn.