On the bubble, 2 tables/ 16 players left
1st pays ~$7,300
15th pays $600
Hero (button) stack = 113,000
(small blind) = 200,000
Villain (bb) = Chip leader

Blinds are $10k/$5k with the BB putting in a $10k ante
Hero: A6o
Villain:

I am dealt A6o on the button. It is folded to me. Other tables action is closed and did not have a bust out. This is the last hand before the break. For bubble consideration the shortest stack size on the other table is 50-60k with everyone else having the same or more as me. Villain had been picking up hands and opening a lot of pots since he had been at my table for the last 30 minute round.

How is this hand to be professionally played with all contingency and back up plans???

Some PRO run the sim for this ASAP... Oh wait

So you're on the bubble, 8-handed, on the button, have a smallish but not bottom stack, and have a weak, unsuited ace. Both players have you covered, and the big blind is the chip leader who may have winners tilt. Any two cards he's calling with have at least 40%, and at best crush you. And you need a pro to figure this out?

Easy shove

prahlad friedman said take every +EV opportunity to can

You have 11bb. There is 2.5bb in the middle.
Your shove can't be called light by SB. From BB I don't have stack size or reads but he has 100% of hands here.
Neither player can't call you light with hands like J7s T8s (maybe they are super crazy weak players but we can't assume that)

A shove will increase your stack by 20% or you will get called and have around 30-35% ( nice no?)
If you really want the min-cash then fold all your range ( this includes folding AA/KK too)
You can't win a tournament with 11bb and letting past this spots.

What is your decision now?

So i posted this hand in the Med stakes MTT board. Worth reading there.
I tended to agree with the posters on that thread that because of the bubble considerations, and I have the button; waiting for 1 more player to bust out seems like the long term equitable play, securing (hopefully) the min cash, instead of shoving A6 which is well towards the bottom of my EV+ shoving range with 11bb's.

But in the tournament I thought what you thought and shoved.

Idiotic advice.The pay jump is from 0 to 600.You want to risk that to increase your tourney equity by a tiny fraction?Even if called and you win,your monetary gain is tiny compared to losing 600

You made laugh so hard...

You are not secured a place in the money. With only one short stack in both tables you are not secured anything.
You can't fold to the money ( maybe you can) but the downside will be a super tiny stack with no fold equity after bursting the bubble. Levels go up, shorties can double up and things can happen.

If you want to pass this profitable spot because of the min-cash its ok. Maybe your bankroll needs this bump up.
But with chance of like 95% of gaining 2.5bb and when they call you you have around 30-35% equity, I don't ever FOLD here.

If you fold here, then you fold all of your range until the bubble burst. Shoving from any position (even with aces) and you can lose around 18% of the time. And don't let me start with QQ or KK. With your reasoning they are clear folds from all positions.
Much more variance that a button shove.

Please can nobody listen to this moron... unfortunately icm is a real thing.

A6o being a fold doesn’t mean QQ is lol

I'd rather ship 32o than A6o here, not saying that's +EV but you get the point.

Q4+

Maybe he was watching Main Event final table, where QQ was folded to a 3bet

A little text comprehension, please...

I'd say that with the min-cash mentality if you fold here ( profitable push spot) then you fold all of your range because a race with QQ or AK for example, has more equity for villain that a shove OTB vs 2 players with 100% hands( where fold equity is the best equity you can have)

The fact that OP was called by a 3% hand and he has enough equity makes this a +EV spot ( probably a slightly +$EV too)

Good luck to all
I'm out this thread

Note: if your hand is not and Axo but a 22-88, would all be more inclined to shove? Why?

Yes actually you are right,shorties should probably be taking more chances when on the bubble as they haven’t got anything locked in at all.The EV you lose by continually folding can’t be made up for later when you make the money with 5 bb.Yea I was totally wrong here but I’d like to see a few sims ran on it