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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 06-30-2020, 04:45 PM   #1
ye90
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Bounty tourney, smells like aces

I have the opponent marked as a decent player. It's so frustrating cos it smells like aces, but I just can't find a fold at any stage. How bad is my play?

PokerStars - 700/1400 Ante 210 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 122,543
Hero (MP): 91,116
MP+1: 24,837
MP+2: 14,415
CO: 137,786
BTN: 14,911
SB: 32,443
BB: 47,959
UTG: 47,084

9 players post ante of 210, SB posts SB 700, BB posts BB 1,400

Pre Flop: (pot: 3,990) Hero has K Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2,800, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 14,701 and is all-in, fold, BB calls 13,301, Hero calls 11,901

Flop: (46,693, 3 players) A 5 K
BB bets 5,600, Hero calls 5,600

Turn: (57,893, 3 players) 7
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (57,893, 3 players) 7
BB bets 21,000, Hero calls 21,000

BB shows A A (Full House, Aces full of Sevens)
(Pre 65%, Flop 90%, Turn 98%)
Hero mucks K Q (Two Pair, Kings and Sevens)
(Pre 17%, Flop 6%, Turn 0%)
BTN mucks 5 5 (Full House, Fives full of Sevens)
(Pre 17%, Flop 5%, Turn 2%)
BB wins 99,893
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Old 06-30-2020, 05:00 PM   #2
ye90
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Re: Bounty tourney, smells like aces

This might be terribad. He has no realistic bluff combos.

This is a tough spot tho cos there's only 6 combos of aces preflop and countless combos of him just calling with marginal hands. Not that he will ever call with marginal hands, but it's still possible.

I guess the river is where I could find a fold. Or preflop.

Last edited by ye90; 06-30-2020 at 05:19 PM.
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Old 06-30-2020, 05:21 PM   #3
000Puh4u
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Re: Bounty tourney, smells like aces

Preflop no. The odds are too good and the hand is too strong.
River, yeah. Probably a fold. Likely someone has an A.
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Old 06-30-2020, 05:24 PM   #4
ye90
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Re: Bounty tourney, smells like aces

Quote:
Originally Posted by 000Puh4u View Post
Preflop no. The odds are too good and the hand is too strong.
River, yeah. Probably a fold. Likely someone has an A.
Yeah. But like on the river we're concerned of only the player that is betting cos we win those chips if he doesn't have an A. But I agree he prolly has the A.
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Old 06-30-2020, 05:49 PM   #5
AALegend
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Re: Bounty tourney, smells like aces

You have done everything right pre, on the flop and on the turn.

River is a fold, as the sidepot is very small, so if the villain is bluffing, he is bluffing into what is essentially a dry sidepot. If he is a good player, he should not be doing that. Hence, you can fold river.
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Old 07-01-2020, 10:21 AM   #6
Darth_Maul
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Re: Bounty tourney, smells like aces

I might just shove pre. You have BB covered so he can only call off with the top of his range. His flat looks super suspicious for sure, but maybe he's taking a lower variance line with a hand like 99/AK/AQ and won't want to call off with those hands.

I'm assuming this is a PKO?
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Old 07-01-2020, 10:40 AM   #7
ye90
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Re: Bounty tourney, smells like aces

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul View Post
I might just shove pre. You have BB covered so he can only call off with the top of his range. His flat looks super suspicious for sure, but maybe he's taking a lower variance line with a hand like 99/AK/AQ and won't want to call off with those hands.

I'm assuming this is a PKO?
Yeah this is a PKO. And he will for sure call with 99 and AQ, so shoving doesn't make sense. He's put in a third of his stack so it's optimistic to think he will fold anything to a shove. His bounty was average-sized as well as the shover's, so it doesn't influence anything too much cos we're talking about lots of chips to sacrifice here.
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Old 07-01-2020, 02:07 PM   #8
Darth_Maul
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Re: Bounty tourney, smells like aces

Quote:
Originally Posted by ye90 View Post
Yeah this is a PKO. And he will for sure call with 99 and AQ, so shoving doesn't make sense. He's put in a third of his stack so it's optimistic to think he will fold anything to a shove. His bounty was average-sized as well as the shover's, so it doesn't influence anything too much cos we're talking about lots of chips to sacrifice here.
Here's the thing, though. If his range includes those hands, he shouldn't be calling off with them pre against someone who has him well covered. Doing so would be a pretty big mistake in a PKO. But if his range doesn't include those hands, his preflop range might be so strong that you shouldn't be calling to begin with. You're only 25% against a strong range of QQ+/AK/AKs, and 21% if we take out the AK/AKs.
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Old 07-01-2020, 04:02 PM   #9
rayfox111
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Re: Bounty tourney, smells like aces

Its easy to be wise after the event I know, but we have a very decent stack, your in an early position and I cant help feeling that you have over valued you hand a little.
I dont mine your min raise pre too much, but after an all in and a call from the BB I think you could have found a fold, I'd say its a fair bet your behind at that stage. Now whether that is considered too weak is open to debate!

Last edited by rayfox111; 07-01-2020 at 04:16 PM.
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