Two tables left, top 4 get paid. 500/1K, no ante. Effective stack at table is probably 50BB-ish.

Hero (MP, 40K) raises to 2.5K with A 7
Folds to Villain (SB, 24K) who calls. Villain is decent-to-good younger kid.

Flop (pot: 6K)
7 5 3

Villain leads for 6K. Hero calls.

Turn (pot: 18K)
Q

Villain jams for 15.5K.
Hero ?

In game it felt like villain's donk flop/jam turn range was heavily weighted towards draws, guess it's possible villain sometimes does this with overpairs although I would think at least some overpairs 3bet/gii pre. Blocking top set and some rando two pair hands while not blocking any heart draws felt somewhat relevant at the time, although assuming villain rarely has hands like 75 or Q7 here.

I don't think villain would donk pot on the flop with a draw, but who knows. The problem is he can have lots of hands in his range that beat you: bigger pp he might not have 3b pre, sets, Qx, even a straight if he called in the SB w/ 64s. If you're wrong here you take a big hit at a key stage in the tourney.

For villain to spaz out with a draw on a turn is pretty spewy, as you called a pot sized bet on the flop which has to signify that you probably don't have a draw yourself. So if he doesn't put you on a draw, he's either really trying to push you off some 1 pair type of hand, or overplaying 2 pair or a set in this spot. Like Darth said if you call and lose you will be crippled, however if you fold you still have a little bit of play room with at least 30 or so BB's.

I do think overpairs and Qx are not taking this specific line all that often, tbh, unless it's Qhxh or maybe trapped AA/KK (and we block some AA).

I guess the bigger question is really about the strategy vs. the flop donk lead:

What hands are we calling with? Are we ever raising the donk lead on the flop, and if so, with what hands? And what hands in our flop call range are we calling turn jams with?

im inclined to call here, doubt he leads sets or 2p often and he checks alot of 88,99 TT+ usually 3b pre but sometimes hel have it.

Yeah, problem is that in these $100 dailies when competent(-ish) kids take out-of-nowhere donk flop/jam turn lines (this player hadn't gotten out of line like this all day) it's hard to know what the frequency of the bluff-to-value ratio is. The question here is whether I have to call with more than 2p+, and if so, what one pair hands make the most sense to call.

Is it better to have a hand like A7 that blocks sets/2p+ hands or a hand like JJ which is obviously good if villain is jamming turn with 88-TT some amount?

Something we have to consider is the preflop play. A player you characterize as a decent-good younger player with 24bb flats a 2.5x raise in the SB. Would he flat 88-JJ there? What Qx would he flat?

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I can see smaller pairs (up through 99) flatting more than jamming, TT-QQ much more likely to jam. Certainly can see plenty of Qx as flats.

So then the question is what hands in our opponent's range would he want to donk lead (putting aside whether donk leading is a good idea) especially at that sizing knowing that he's going to have less than pot left by the turn.

*88-JJ make sense, as those are hands likely to be good right now but vulnerable to later streets, and you get a hand like KQ or AT to fold a decent amount.

*Maybe some flush draws, with the idea that he can double barrel and get me off of one pair hands or Ax by the turn while still having equity.

*Possibly some trapped AA/KK but that seems unlikely.

Other than that, what else makes sense as a donk? Sets aren't often going to take that line. Our opponent might not even have 64 or 75 in their calling range pre.

If I run this through Flopzilla and I give villain this range pre:

JJ-22,AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AQs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs

If I assume he always donk bets/jams turns with his strong hands (flush draws, TP+), I have 27% equity on the turn and I need about 32% for this to be a good call. If he only does this with his flush draws and overpairs, I have 45% equity on the turn.

I think you might have it backwards on the pairs. He has a 24bb stack so I don't think he would jam big pairs - he would lose too much value. He would more likely 3b or even flat to trap. But with smaller pairs up to TT I could see him shoving to use all his fold equity.

I don't know how many Qx would flat in the SB here. Maybe some KQs/QJs/QTs. But a decent player isn't going to flat worse. And he would probably 3b (even shove) unsuited Qx like AQ/KQ there. I don't know if he would even play QJ or worse in that spot.

I think you're right there. It's a terrible board for Hero so villain doesn't want him to check behind and would prefer to take it down here.

Don't think so. I think a flush draw looks to x/shove here, or might donk small on the flop. A pot-sized donkbet with a draw would be pretty unusual. If he doesn't have any equity he doesn't mind if Hero checks behind, so there's no real incentive to take the betting lead away from the preflop aggressor.

Agreed

I agree here too, I think a set slowplays and I don't know if 64s/75s calls pre with 24bb. But even if he did, he would slowplay those too.

The more I think through it the more this looms like the first option: a middling pair betting to deny Hero's equity and end the hand on the flop. Then he jams the turn knowing your range is a lot wider than Qx and he can get you to fold some better hands.

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FWIW, opponent had Qh9h. I tank-called and spiked an A on the river.

I was wrong then, villain would pot donk the flop with a draw...

This is the easiest raise on the flop ever, vs that flat in small blind and ur read on him as a competent player, which would exclude most over pairs. I'm happy to raise get it in here and expect to be up against two overs and flush draws here the vast majority of the time, or complete air in which case we take it down pre.

Problem is you're on the wrong side of a flip against overcards with hearts. I'm not sure why you'd be happy to get it in against villain's range on that flop.

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Sorry I didn't explain myself clearly. Raising is the best move as I think at least 70% of the time this is complete air/ random over (s) that will not call a big reraise. Only about 20% of the time is villian showing up with two overs and a flush draw here. If we get it in with 45% its not the worst outcome in the world which is why raising is the best play as we take it down pre probably 7/10 times. I could be wrong but this is just a rough guess.

Make a sense but it's based on a big assumption that villain donks pot with hands like QJcc here often enough.

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