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Big  - 3bet Pot - Paired Board- Fold River? Big  - 3bet Pot - Paired Board- Fold River?

11-29-2018 , 12:05 PM
Pokerstars - Big $27
Blinds (125/250) Hero's Effective Stack: ~35bb
Dealt to Hero [K K]

Villain in UTG+2 raises to 575, folds to Hero in BB and we raise to 1752. Villain calls. Not many hands on Villain.

*** FLOP *** [Q Q J] Pot (3869)
Hero: bets 1277
Villain: calls 1277

*** TURN *** [7] Pot (6423)
Hero: checks
Villain: checks

*** RIVER *** [8] Pot(6423)
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 6500

Hero: calls 6125 and is all-in


Thoughts on the line we played.
-> We do have a big range disadvantage as we have little Qx that we would 3bet from the BB. So is check/calling a better alternative? We do want to charge any draws (spades/9T/KT).
-> I felt he might bet some of his Qx and spade draws on the turn, so his range getting to the river is more SDV heavy (99/TT), which makes the pot shove on the river no sense. But it is hard to find bluffs he gets to the river with, that he wouldn't have bet the turn with. Maybe 9T not of spades, but he wouldn't go that big.
Big  - 3bet Pot - Paired Board- Fold River? Quote
11-29-2018 , 02:21 PM
It is hard to know if villain would have got to the river when we didn't bet the turn or the river. He could have turned a missed spade draw into a bluff and created a very bad spot for you here. I think you should have c-bet the turn.
Big  - 3bet Pot - Paired Board- Fold River? Quote
11-29-2018 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bona
It is hard to know if villain would have got to the river when we didn't bet the turn or the river. He could have turned a missed spade draw into a bluff and created a very bad spot for you here. I think you should have c-bet the turn.
If we value bet again on the turn, what worse are we expecting to call?
Maybe AJ, but that's about it. I feel he would probably fold 88/99/TT, AK, and maybe even some low spade draws. I felt pot controlling the turn was maybe the best line at the time.

So we get value from AJs (3 combos) and maybe some high equity spade draws like AK and KT (2 combos) but then value-own ourselves versus his KQs,AQ,JJ,QJs (1,8,3,2 = 14 combos)

Last edited by dales99; 11-29-2018 at 04:26 PM.
Big  - 3bet Pot - Paired Board- Fold River? Quote
11-29-2018 , 06:37 PM
Good summary. I think he can show up with more air than you assume on the river:

- You'll give him more info on the river as to your bluffability.
- The pot is already built, no need to bet his draws for the sake of building the pot in case he gets there.
- May shy away because he can't really stab turn with equitable bluffs for less than all-in without risking you easily x/jamming due to SPR, forcing him to make a marginal call or fold his equity.

Tough spot, can't fault a call or fold. Maybe prefer to hold K with the K so all 4 KQs are blocked.
Big  - 3bet Pot - Paired Board- Fold River? Quote
12-01-2018 , 03:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dales99
If we value bet again on the turn, what worse are we expecting to call?
Maybe AJ, but that's about it. I feel he would probably fold 88/99/TT, AK, and maybe even some low spade draws. I felt pot controlling the turn was maybe the best line at the time.

So we get value from AJs (3 combos) and maybe some high equity spade draws like AK and KT (2 combos) but then value-own ourselves versus his KQs,AQ,JJ,QJs (1,8,3,2 = 14 combos)
Using this same logic, wouldn't x/c the flop be a good line to take?
Big  - 3bet Pot - Paired Board- Fold River? Quote

      
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