Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (25/50 blinds, 6 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
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Hero (BB): 4,563 (91.3 bb)
UTG+1: 12,292 (245.8 bb)
UTG+2: 4,878 (97.6 bb)
MP1: 4,988 (99.8 bb)
MP2: 4,516 (90.3 bb)
MP3: 4,994 (99.9 bb)
CO: 4,353 (87.1 bb)
BTN: 5,076 (101.5 bb)
SB: 4,526 (90.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q K
UTG+1 raises to 100, 2 folds, MP2 calls 100, MP3 calls 100, 2 folds, SB calls 75, Hero calls 50

Flop: (554) K T 4 (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets 340, SB folds, Hero calls 340, 2 folds

Turn: (1,234) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets 845, Hero folds


Betting villain is a winning (7% ROI) small stakes reg over 23k games.
I have a 600 hand sample on him.
He has a very low Turn bet 17% (6/36), which should be even lower as it was a 5-way pot.

Looking over the spot it seems a bit nitty to fold KQo here. It is 5-way and he should have all KTs, maybe 2/3 possible TT, all 44, all KQ combos and QJdd. I think he will 3bet all AK, KK, AA combos. I don't think he will continue to bet KJ on the turn.


Board: Kc Ts 4d 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.773% 08.52% 31.25% 30 110.00 { KdQs }
Hand 1: 60.227% 28.98% 31.25% 102 110.00 { TcTd, TcTh, 4c4d, 4d4h, 4d4s, KhQh, KcTc, QdJd, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQh }


We need 29% eq to call turn, and we get 39% against that range. If my assessment if correct we can only hope to split and should then fold.

Another option is to squeeze pre. I would rather have a suited hand this deep, but maybe that's a bit overlooked play which could perform very well here as a bluff. Especially since it's only a 2x from the OR.

If you're going to fold TP when you face action then there is no point in defending and playing this multiway. I actually like a squeeze pre for that reason. You're deep enough that you can easily fold to a 4b. With KQo you really want to get heads-up and avoid a multiway pot.

Absolutely not a squeeze esp against UTG +1 range. Call once more on the turn and reevaluate on the river, I likely would not call triple barrel here though.

Meh, he's minraising and we have blockers to the strongest part of his range. He could have many pairs and suited Aces there.

I would consider x/r OTF. I think it's very good flop for us because:
1) tp + good kicker gives us good pot equity.
2) bd straight draw gives us opportunity to lead if A, J, Q, 9 shows up OTT.
3) 2 blockers give us some fold equity because V has less Kx, Qx combos than usual..

at least it's better than folding tp + good kicker OTT after call OTF.

he could have

TT (3x)
44 (3x)
KTs (1x)
KJs (2x)
JQs (3x)

wouldnt give him credit for AJ AQ with backdoor flushdraw really
low roi small stakes reg screams setmining nit lol

good fold !