Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (25/50 blinds, 6 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
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Holdem Manager - The Ultimate
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Hero (BB): 4,563 (91.3 bb)
UTG+1: 12,292 (245.8 bb)
UTG+2: 4,878 (97.6 bb)
MP1: 4,988 (99.8 bb)
MP2: 4,516 (90.3 bb)
MP3: 4,994 (99.9 bb)
CO: 4,353 (87.1 bb)
BTN: 5,076 (101.5 bb)
SB: 4,526 (90.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q
K
UTG+1 raises to 100, 2 folds, MP2 calls 100, MP3 calls 100, 2 folds, SB calls 75, Hero calls 50
Flop: (554) K
T
4
(5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks,
MP3 bets 340,
SB folds, Hero calls 340,
2 folds
Turn: (1,234) 5
(2 players)
Hero checks,
MP3 bets 845,
Hero folds
Betting villain is a winning (7% ROI) small stakes reg over 23k games.
I have a 600 hand sample on him.
He has a very low Turn bet 17% (6/36), which should be even lower as it was a 5-way pot.
Looking over the spot it seems a bit nitty to fold KQo here. It is 5-way and he should have all KTs, maybe 2/3 possible TT, all 44, all KQ combos and QJdd. I think he will 3bet all AK, KK, AA combos. I don't think he will continue to bet KJ on the turn.
Board: Kc Ts 4d 5d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.773% 08.52% 31.25% 30 110.00 { KdQs }
Hand 1: 60.227% 28.98% 31.25% 102 110.00 { TcTd, TcTh, 4c4d, 4d4h, 4d4s, KhQh, KcTc, QdJd, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQh }
We need 29% eq to call turn, and we get 39% against that range. If my assessment if correct we can only hope to split and should then fold.
Another option is to squeeze pre. I would rather have a suited hand this deep, but maybe that's a bit overlooked play which could perform very well here as a bluff. Especially since it's only a 2x from the OR.