Hi guys.

Not sure how to play this kind of MW pots

First raiser is 19/14 in 32 hands
Caller is 42/16 over 50 hands
Shover is 7/8 in 54 hands

So if i just call the shove i am offering fishy cold caller a roughly 4:1 odds to call and i will have to AQ OOP if he calls so i suppose i have to shove myself to give him worse odds right?


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1.80 Buy-in (2,500/5,000 blinds, 625 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37932596

MP1: 18,742 (3.7 bb)
MP2: 132,444 (26.5 bb)
MP3: 229,365 (45.9 bb)
CO: 96,505 (19.3 bb)
BTN: 52,068 (10.4 bb)
SB: 101,716 (20.3 bb)
Hero (BB): 95,875 (19.2 bb)
UTG+1: 170,020 (34 bb)
UTG+2: 28,074 (5.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A Q
2 folds, MP1 raises to 18,117 and is all-in, MP2 folds, MP3 calls 18,117, CO folds, BTN raises to 51,443 and is all-in Hero ??

You can't call there, you have to shove to knock the caller out of the hand. I'm not crazy about it though because I think you're behind the nit's range but there is lots of dead money in there.

is this one of the spots you have to gamble to accumulate chips? Usually i fold spots like this and at the end i make it to the money but so short that it´s pretty difficult to reach the FT

I fold as well, but not sure what is the right play

Yes I think this is one of those marginal spits you have to take to make a deep run. But I wouldn't necessarily call it a gamble. If you run the ev calculation with the nitty villain's range, you'll probably find you're not too far behind and have more than enough equity with all that dead money in the pot.

This is one area of MTT play that has always been a leak for me. Like you I would always fold if I knew I was behind and wouldn't consider the ev of the situation. But running deep requires that you sometimes have to take a shot in some marginal spots, even when you know you're behind.

Also remember that you're not risking your life, unless the caller decides to call your shove. You're risking half your stack against the nit. That's a big point in favor of taking the chance to significantly increase your stack.

Hero jams and it is not at all close. It is actually more of a fist pump shove spot just because how optimal the stack sizes are for it. Folding here is very bad. Calling is also bad

Yes with <20bb this is jam, 10bb stack could have AJ,KQ here for sure

A very stupid question :

So i suppose in this MW pots we have to "target" with our shove not to the short stack guy but to the fishy caller who has roughly the same stack as us? Uummm something like we shove to put "big" stack out and we play only vs short stack so if we lose still we are alive on the tournament right?

Is there any matematical way to approach these situations? Hope question is not very naive but i am not a math guy haha