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Old 06-19-2017, 01:32 PM   #1
TheGramuel
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AQo on monotone flop, help?

So I can't get into my HUD as wife has borrowed laptop but I remember (almost) all of the relevant stuff as I was tanking for a while on this.

ACR - $3 $1k gtd, in the $, ~60 left

2250/4500/450

H - MP (UTG + 3) - 140k - AdQs

V - BB - 60k - running 23/16 over ~150 hands, seems reggy and solid

Folds to us, we raise to 9500, folds to BB who defends.

Flop - Q84

BB checks.

We? Can we check back a board this wet? Can we bet/fold vs this opponent?
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Old 06-19-2017, 02:13 PM   #2
Darth_Maul
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

I check behind. He's going to x/shove with any single heart or set, x/c with a made flush, and fold pretty much everything else. If stacks were deeper I'd say bet to charge a single heart but with 13bb he's getting it in.

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Old 06-19-2017, 02:43 PM   #3
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

Bet/Call off on the flop seems pretty standard here.
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Old 06-19-2017, 03:05 PM   #4
Bob__Sacamano
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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Originally Posted by nutflopper View Post
Bet/Call off on the flop seems pretty standard here.
yeah, this seems right to me .... get it in now
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Old 06-19-2017, 03:45 PM   #5
TheGramuel
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

2 differing opinions already, glad to see that nobody has said bet/fold too to really confuse me.

I really tanked for a while before acting fwiw, could not decide between all 3 options (I guess 4 if you just shove).
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Old 06-19-2017, 04:02 PM   #6
nutflopper
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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Originally Posted by TheGramuel View Post
2 differing opinions already, glad to see that nobody has said bet/fold too to really confuse me.

I really tanked for a while before acting fwiw, could not decide between all 3 options (I guess 4 if you just shove).
Not too sure why you would ever check behind on that flop. Your hand is strong, but you don't hold a heart and need to protect. Can't give him free cards here. If he flopped a flush, good for him.
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Old 06-19-2017, 04:20 PM   #7
WHO_RUNIT
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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Originally Posted by Darth_Maul View Post
I check behind. He's going to x/shove with any single heart or set, x/c with a made flush, and fold pretty much everything else. If stacks were deeper I'd say bet to charge a single heart but with 13bb he's getting it in.

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That's the opposite of what I was thinking. If he was deeper I'd be more inclined to check back so villain wouldn't be tempted to check raise flop and try and push me off my hand.

With villain so shallow, I think this is a situation where you need to bet pretty big/commit him to the flop.
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Old 06-19-2017, 06:27 PM   #8
Darth_Maul
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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Originally Posted by nutflopper View Post
Not too sure why you would ever check behind on that flop. Your hand is strong, but you don't hold a heart and need to protect. Can't give him free cards here. If he flopped a flush, good for him.
Protection isn't as relevant in this spot because villain starts the hand with only 13bb so he's not going to make a decision based on pot odds if he has a heart. He's just going to shove his chips in.

It all depends on how comfortable you are committing the effective stack on the flop against his range here. I don't have a proper equity calculator on me to figure it out. If you are, then go ahead and bet/call. But if you're not happy committing on the flop, checking behind is probably the better play.

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Old 06-19-2017, 06:28 PM   #9
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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Originally Posted by WHO_RUNIT View Post
That's the opposite of what I was thinking. If he was deeper I'd be more inclined to check back so villain wouldn't be tempted to check raise flop and try and push me off my hand.

With villain so shallow, I think this is a situation where you need to bet pretty big/commit him to the flop.
This is very villain-dependent but in the micro stakes a x/shove with 13bb is going to be far more common than a x/r with a deeper stack.

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Old 06-19-2017, 07:29 PM   #10
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

Bet/calling for sure, he's rejamming most strong hearts and every queen (sometimes worse pairs too). You can't allow weak heart draws see a free turn.
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Old 06-19-2017, 07:57 PM   #11
TheGramuel
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

OK some consensus, good.

My thought process was actually similar to here, I bet pretty huge, like 2/3 the pot, villain jammed, I called, they'd flopped a flush good for them.

I was happy with my decision in this until I discussed at my home game last night, where there are a couple of players I usually respect (though tbh we play cash and they play cash), and they were erring between all three including bet v small and fold to a jam - which I hated, and was looking for confirmation I was right.

I think that checking back has *some* merit sometimes, but not that much in this spot. I'm never bet folding TPTK here though.
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:03 PM   #12
nutflopper
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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Originally Posted by Darth_Maul View Post
Protection isn't as relevant in this spot because villain starts the hand with only 13bb so he's not going to make a decision based on pot odds if he has a heart. He's just going to shove his chips in.

It all depends on how comfortable you are committing the effective stack on the flop against his range here. I don't have a proper equity calculator on me to figure it out. If you are, then go ahead and bet/call. But if you're not happy committing on the flop, checking behind is probably the better play.

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Respectfully disagree. You can't let a hand like A7 with the 7 of hearts get there for free. And against a 13bb stack, there's not too many scenarios where I'm not comfortably getting it in on the flop here. If deeper, I could see playing a bit more tricky in not wanting to get shoved on without having a heart in my hand on this flop. (Which is probably why some of OPs cash game friends sided with playing cautiously, they're used to being 100bbs deep minimum)
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:04 PM   #13
Darth_Maul
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

Can someone run the equity against villains range on the flop so I can be convinced?

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Old 06-19-2017, 11:35 PM   #14
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

bet/folding vs his stack size insanely terrible.

just c-bet 40% pot and call any flop jam. if he check calls put him all in on all non-heart turns.
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Old 06-20-2017, 12:53 AM   #15
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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just c-bet 40% pot and call any flop jam. if he check calls put him all in on all non-heart turns.
+1
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Old 06-21-2017, 05:53 AM   #16
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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Originally Posted by Darth_Maul View Post
Can someone run the equity against villains range on the flop so I can be convinced?

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Sorry, I don't know how to post a pic of Equilab here but against a check-shove range of all top pairs, all nut flush draws, made flushes smaller than ten, middle pair top kickers and higher gutshots with a heart we have about 59%. I might defend ever wider as BB with two suited cards and not shove T high flushes but this should give us a rough estimate.


Equity Win Tie
MP2 58.83% 57.63% 1.20% AdQs
BB 41.17% 39.96% 1.20% A8s, Q4s+, Th7h, 9h7h, Th6h, 9h6h, 7h6h, 9h5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 7h4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 6h3h, 5h3h, 4h3h, KQo, Q6o+, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah9c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah8c, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah7c, Ah6d, Ah6s, Ah6c, Ah5d, Ah5s, Ah5c, Ah4d, Ah4s, Ah4c, Ah3d, Ah3s, Ah3c, Ah2d, Ah2s, Ah2c, JdTh, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JsTh, JcTh, Jd9h, Jh9d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Js9h, Jc9h, Td9h, Th9d, Th9s, Th9c, Ts9h, Tc9h
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Old 06-21-2017, 06:29 AM   #17
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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Originally Posted by AR!st0tle View Post
Sorry, I don't know how to post a pic of Equilab here but against a check-shove range of all top pairs, all nut flush draws, made flushes smaller than ten, middle pair top kickers and higher gutshots with a heart we have about 59%. I might defend ever wider as BB with two suited cards and not shove T high flushes but this should give us a rough estimate.


Equity Win Tie
MP2 58.83% 57.63% 1.20% AdQs
BB 41.17% 39.96% 1.20% A8s, Q4s+, Th7h, 9h7h, Th6h, 9h6h, 7h6h, 9h5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 7h4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 6h3h, 5h3h, 4h3h, KQo, Q6o+, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah9c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah8c, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah7c, Ah6d, Ah6s, Ah6c, Ah5d, Ah5s, Ah5c, Ah4d, Ah4s, Ah4c, Ah3d, Ah3s, Ah3c, Ah2d, Ah2s, Ah2c, JdTh, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JsTh, JcTh, Jd9h, Jh9d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Js9h, Jc9h, Td9h, Th9d, Th9s, Th9c, Ts9h, Tc9h
Thanks, I didn't realize how good we'd be against that range. In that case I switch my vote to bet/call.

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Old 06-21-2017, 11:36 PM   #18
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

Man, at this SPR this is a fist pump spot if we can get all our chips in here.
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Old 06-22-2017, 05:18 AM   #19
makeucry
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

sorry late to the party, but jam. we HAVE to be ahead here, and we have to jam because of effective stacks. all pairs fold, even A8s is way behind. IMO and I expect criticism, this spot where you flop top pair on a all suited flop you usually have 60/40 for equity considering a player only flops a flush 1 time in 118. Jamming right by the numbers is profitable. I don't know if it would have prevented a call from BB, but you should probs 3x pre from EP. You gave BB 5/1 odds (4500bb+4500ante+2250sb+9500raise=27050+5000 to call into a 25750 chip pot). You basically gave villain pot odds to call with any hand. A 3x raise makes the pot 4500bb+4500ante+2250sb+13500=24750 with villain needing to pay 9000 to call into a pot that would be 33750 giving villain closer to 3/1 odds, making it slighter harder to justify the call with anything but a premium hand, esp for the TAG reg data we have on villain.
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Old 06-22-2017, 08:18 AM   #20
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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sorry late to the party, but jam. we HAVE to be ahead here, and we have to jam because of effective stacks. all pairs fold, even A8s is way behind. IMO and I expect criticism, this spot where you flop top pair on a all suited flop you usually have 60/40 for equity considering a player only flops a flush 1 time in 118. Jamming right by the numbers is profitable. I don't know if it would have prevented a call from BB, but you should probs 3x pre from EP. You gave BB 5/1 odds (4500bb+4500ante+2250sb+9500raise=27050+5000 to call into a 25750 chip pot). You basically gave villain pot odds to call with any hand. A 3x raise makes the pot 4500bb+4500ante+2250sb+13500=24750 with villain needing to pay 9000 to call into a pot that would be 33750 giving villain closer to 3/1 odds, making it slighter harder to justify the call with anything but a premium hand, esp for the TAG reg data we have on villain.
Why would you open jam flop, you only get called by worse other than a nut flush draw. And who opens 3x on a 30bb stack.
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Old 06-22-2017, 11:26 AM   #21
makeucry
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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Why would you open jam flop, you only get called by worse other than a nut flush draw. And who opens 3x on a 30bb stack.
because you win more times than you lose? In my experience of doing exactly this, it's profitable in the micro stakes and will usually result in a fold and when it doesnt im definitely ahead from the flop more often than I am losing. villain flops a flush so rarely HU that its barely worth considering unless you have thousands of hands of data.

also i feel like 3x oop and 2.5 ip is pretty standard with over 25bbs.
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:17 PM   #22
TheGramuel
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

Literally never 3xing pre from this stack size with the stack sizes behind.

If the BB folds pre with a hand I'm ahead of that's actually bad for us.
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:21 PM   #23
Darth_Maul
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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because you win more times than you lose? In my experience of doing exactly this, it's profitable in the micro stakes and will usually result in a fold and when it doesnt im definitely ahead from the flop more often than I am losing. villain flops a flush so rarely HU that its barely worth considering unless you have thousands of hands of data.

also i feel like 3x oop and 2.5 ip is pretty standard with over 25bbs.
You don't necessarily want villain to fold. If you shove you are likely only getting called by a monster and everything you beat, including single hearts, will fold. A bet that gets called by better and folds worse is a bad bet.

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Old 06-22-2017, 02:37 PM   #24
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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You don't necessarily want villain to fold. If you shove you are likely only getting called by a monster and everything you beat, including single hearts, will fold. A bet that gets called by better and folds worse is a bad bet.

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so i think what we're not talking about is player type. i would obviously be more prone to jam on this flop with a whale/fish/maniac than I would be to do it against a NIT or a TAG reg. You already know that villain isn't exactly playing perfect poker because he doesn't just jam pf, so that makes me think villain is more likely to make a mistake if they're given a big enough chunk of equity. in similar spots i've been called with lower pocket pairs with a heart suit, A or K high hands with no pair, tptk with one being suited, and only a few times from the flush. obviously sometimes villain hits and you shouldn't take that line if you can't afford to take the risk, but IMO its a profitable spot.

so bb checks flop pot is 25750, villains stack is around 50k; betting a sizeable portion of the pot forces villain to fold flat or jam, but betting too low gives him odds to call. there are too many hands that villain could have called utg raise with that are now trash, so you need to raise unless you don't believe you can still win the hand and in accepting that you must also accept that you cant raise flop without also calling villains 3b jam. this isn't the most spectacular or fun spots, but it is profitable if you decide on using all the data you can at the moment of the decision. I am of the opinion that Hero is usually ahead here and this hand is fine turn more of a profit than than one in a hundred times it doesn't.
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Old 06-22-2017, 06:12 PM   #25
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Re: AQo on monotone flop, help?

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so i think what we're not talking about is player type. i would obviously be more prone to jam on this flop with a whale/fish/maniac than I would be to do it against a NIT or a TAG reg. You already know that villain isn't exactly playing perfect poker because he doesn't just jam pf, so that makes me think villain is more likely to make a mistake if they're given a big enough chunk of equity. in similar spots i've been called with lower pocket pairs with a heart suit, A or K high hands with no pair, tptk with one being suited, and only a few times from the flush. obviously sometimes villain hits and you shouldn't take that line if you can't afford to take the risk, but IMO its a profitable spot.

so bb checks flop pot is 25750, villains stack is around 50k; betting a sizeable portion of the pot forces villain to fold flat or jam, but betting too low gives him odds to call. there are too many hands that villain could have called utg raise with that are now trash, so you need to raise unless you don't believe you can still win the hand and in accepting that you must also accept that you cant raise flop without also calling villains 3b jam. this isn't the most spectacular or fun spots, but it is profitable if you decide on using all the data you can at the moment of the decision. I am of the opinion that Hero is usually ahead here and this hand is fine turn more of a profit than than one in a hundred times it doesn't.
It doesn't matter what player type villain is, it folds hands you beat and has him calling hands hero loses to. And defending blinds with that short stack is not a mistake, if played right you can easily check jam good flops and get the money in on favourable flops.

And even if you jam here, all you are doing is losing equity in the hand. Because villians check/jamming range is much weaker than his jam calling range for 2/3 the pot.
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