smaller buy in than most mtts I play. Should we be trying to get 3 streets of value here? Any critique of sizing?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 50/100 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 104.57 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
Hero (CO): 84.37 BB
BTN: 63.03 BB (VPIP: 31.43, PFR: 15.15, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 35)
SB: 24.8 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BB: 18.81 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 12.70, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 63)
UTG: 22.48 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG+1: 18.65 BB (VPIP: 13.73, PFR: 12.87, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 102)
MP: 23.3 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)

8 players post ante of 0 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has Q A

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 3.23 BB, Hero calls 3.23 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (8.76 BB, 2 players) 5 T Q
MP+1 bets 3.44 BB, Hero raises to 11.11 BB, MP+1 calls 7.67 BB

Turn: (30.98 BB, 2 players) 8
MP+1 checks, Hero checks

River: (30.98 BB, 2 players) 3
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 16.5 BB, fold

P.S. might 3 bet AQs here but V running 16/13 I prefer flatting ip here. I thought about making the diamond draw pay on the turn but considering we block tp w/ fd I thought we would be better off checking back turn for pot control and inducing some river bluffs.

I'm not sure I favor raising the flop. You're forcing your opponent to only continue with hands that have you beat or have a lot of equity against your hand. Seems like you're making it easy for him to play against your range.

This.

As played i like checking turn and river play

I agree with Strappz, for the most part. However, you definitely missed some value on the turn by checking. V is going to be calling 1/3-1/2 pot OTT with K10, XdXd, A10o type hands and then giving up river. These are important spots to recognize missed value and exploit as much as possible.

+1 perfectly said.

Ditto

"Making it easy against our range" I don't think so at all. If they have any fd/single pair/straight draw we are making their life a living hell. I don't agree with most people on this thread just saying that raising flop will only get action by better hands.....uh what? It's a nice wet board against an LP raiser he'll have tons of hands we can value target here.

I dig the raise OTF and I like the size (maybe slightly bigger, anywhere between 3.5x to 4x). I think a mistake is that people raise too small OTF when they raise post and this is nice because we get max value from all their draws and weaker Qx/Tx hands AND usually we will only get 1 street of value from some of their weaker middling showdown value hands so getting in more value on the flop is a good way of doing that.

Honestly, I think we should be betting turn here imo. I think again we can charge fds/sds/Qx/JJ/AT.

and yeah, I think 3betting pre is probably better.

Yeah I don't mind the raise on the flop, he's continuing with all draws and Qx. But if we do raise the flop we have to continue on this turn. Whatever he called with on the flop, he's probably not folding. Wouldn't mind checking the river behind on scary cards/betting for value on bricks.

Here's the problem with the flop raise.

Villain will fold a lot of hands Hero beats, such as middle pairs, hands like KT/JT and Ax.

Hero has the Qd, which blocks several of villain's diamond draw opening hands (AQdd/KQdd/QJdd). It also makes it a bit less likely villain has a diamond draw at all.

The Td on the flop also blocks villain from opening ATdd/KTdd/JTdd.

Other diamond draw hands he opens include AKdd/AJdd/KJdd, all of which would likely continue with good equity against Hero or even 3b.

Villain also has sets and QT in his range, though Hero blocks QQ and QT.

The raise likely only gets value from KQ/QJ and KJ for the naked OESD.

I agree with Qd blocks some of the fd hands villains can have. But what abotu all the suited connectors/gappers? 98s/76s/97s/KJs/AJs/AKs/87s/
Still tons of draws + OESD + some gutters (depending on how cally vil. is).

Also, I don't entirely agree that he'll let go of all middling showdown so easily. Beg to differ, especially at these stakes. I don't think it's a snap for anyone. I think tons of hands will just peel the bet and reasses turn.

Hard to know how many of these hands he opens given the stats we have on him. To include the 98s/97s stuff he would have to be opening like 40% here.

31 hand sample too small, from MP1 should be able to include those hands just fine

Getting back from vacation but had some great feedback on this hand. Sorry it's been so long for a response. So to be honest the flop raise is probably a mistake, as we do not get value from enough hands that we beat. As stated, this isn't my normal level so I thought villain may have a wider than should be continue range but given his pre stats over a short sample that's probably incorrect.

So.... my thought process may have been flawed on the flop raise, the real reason I played it this way is because I wanted to define V range. I wasn't playing my A game, I had seen down too often the tops of villians ranges fairly often and made a bet that doesn't accomplish the things we normally want to accomplish.

I think it brings up a more interesting question though, I didn't think I could get away from this hand if two bricks fell, and I thought we were too deep to stack off in this case. My feeling was that V would likely re-raise flop w/ KK+/sets which allows us to lay this hand down now. It also gives us some pot control if he calls and allows us to check back turn.

In this situation that is really most likely not a reason to bet, but if there were ICM implications, and we were as deep as this, should we consider this logic?

All this talk of the flop raise is interesting for sure but I think the real debate has to be on the turn check. The question I have is why were your raising the flop? Was it for value or as some type of semi-bluff? What was your plan on the river if villain bets out? I feel like you missed a ton of value on the turn but I could be wrong, I would be interested to see what more people have to think about the turn/river play in this case. Value vs Pot Control w/TPTK when heads up in position...? How does the fact that your both deep and he has you covered play into that decision making?