Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 150/300 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP+1): 44.97 BB
CO: 33.13 BB (VPIP: 25.94, PFR: 20.85, 3Bet Preflop: 11.47, Hands: 729)
BTN: 94.4 BB (VPIP: 24.23, PFR: 19.06, 3Bet Preflop: 9.79, Hands: 1,154)
SB: 51.78 BB (VPIP: 19.37, PFR: 14.02, 3Bet Preflop: 6.76, Hands: 541)
BB: 16.61 BB (VPIP: 24.17, PFR: 17.95, 3Bet Preflop: 7.81, Hands: 1,036)
UTG: 4.52 BB (VPIP: 14.73, PFR: 12.30, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 129)
UTG+1: 4.85 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP: 19.03 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (6.3 BB, 2 players) 3 K A
Hero bets 3.5 BB, BTN calls 3.5 BB

Turn: (13.3 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 7.5 BB, BTN calls 7.5 BB

River: (28.3 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, BTN bets 81.3 BB and is all-in, hero ???

V is a competent player who could easy bluff me out this hand with any hand after i check river, V stats: cold call 2bet btn 15 , fold to flop cbet ip 35 , fold to turn cbet ip 67

what would be the best way to play this ?

We have 32bb behind otr right, I tend to make hero calls here. A flush often raises either flop or turn, same with set/2p. As he is playing a capped range preflop we can discount AA,KK,AK. Based on pure pot odds alone we need to have a success rate of like 34% otr and often he has a busted flush/combo draw, esp when he is playing the big stack, he can get called and still have 50bb so its no skin off his back really.

Guessing game with pot odds 2 to 1 should be profitable...

Yeah this is a single diamond busted flush so often.

Which one diamond cards is he flatting on the button to be able to show up with a busted flush draw while having insufficient showdown value to check behind?

I think you have to fold. If you don't like x/folding, I prefer betting for thin value than x/call.

Could be hands like QdJx/QdTx/JdTx/Jd9x.

OP said hes competent.

And that means he can't call with one of those hands?

Correct

Anyway we don't need colourful adjectives, we have the stats and sample size to see he's not flatting those hands.

24/19/9.8 with a cold call of 15 on the BTN. Explain how this tells you with confidence he doesn't have QdJx/QdTx/JdTx/Jd9x in his range.

Forget about J9o, that's not even an option.

The hands you list are not the sort of hands a 24/19 profile would prioritise to flat with on the button, i.e they are not within the top 15%.

15% is likely not filtered for stack size therefore he's likely flatting less at this effective depth. If he's not stack size aware, he is almost certain to continue flatting with a hand like 65s while QTo never makes the cut. QJo is the one borderline and I'm reluctant to write it off as terrible but it should be discounted. Many regs would never flat with it away from the BB.

I don't think you can write off those hands as quickly as you are but you're probably right there aren't many single diamonds in his range. The more I look at the hand the more it looks like a big hand trying to look bluffy.

KQd,KJd,KTd,QdJ,JdQ,QdT,TdQ,JdT,TdJ and any Ax that contains a diamond that he decides to to turn into bluff now. (A5d,A4d,A2d etc). Just because he has SDV doesn't mean he is going to take it. He always has an option to turn a hand with moderate SDV into a bluff so we have to take this into account in our calculations.

He doesn't need to show up with one of these hands very often to make calling profitable (we only need 34%).

How are we b/f with a potsize stack behind otr?

QdJx/QdTx maybe. Idk probably click the call button. I think it's fine as played a little deeper I would argue a x/c on earlier streets or shallower a x/r flop.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Who said anything about bet-fold?

Heres a rule you can take to the bank...if you need a small stakes reg to be turning top or 2nd pair into a bluff in order to find enough bluffs, go ahead and fold all bluff-catchers.

when we x/c we allow him to bluff all missed draws and value cuts we cant do this with a b/c.

Don't quite understand this, please explain

I wouldn't bet-call. If hero bets say 1/3 it would be a trivial fold to a jam regardless of price. Jamming was the sizing I had in mind but didn't specify because I'm unsure which sizing would be best, but I'm confident that any bet would be better than x/calling. The reason being that it's not been demonstrated which air he can credibly get to the river with.

But I prefer x/fold simply because I don't think AQ can get enough value by betting. Vill should be expected to check behind all one pair Ax and Kx he gets to the river with. It's not credible to expect him to bet these for value or as a bluff.

So if he gets to the river with too few hands that will be inclined to bluff without imagining he's capable of some elite-level turn Ax, Kx into a bluff play, and the population under-bluffs at the best of times, hero can fold all bluff-catchers in this spot.