The following is a hand I played recently and I can't tell if my squeeze was +EV.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

BB 80, SB 40, Ante 10

NL Holdem $80(BB)
HERO ($1732)
SB ($2489)
BB ($2124)
UTG ($1948)
MP ($1490)
MP ($1480)
HJ ($1030)
CO ($2460)

Dealt to Hero 7 7

UTG Folds, MP Raises To $240 (Rem. Stack: 1240), MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Calls $240 (Rem. Stack: 2210), HERO Raises To $1722 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0), SB Folds, BB Folds, MP Calls $1240 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0), CO Folds, HERO $242

Flop ($3884) 4 6 2

Turn ($3884) 4 6 2 J

River ($3884) 4 6 2 J 3

MP shows Q Q

MP wins $3400


At this point I had just moved to a new table with no reads. What hands should we be squeezing from the button in these situations?

Perfectly fine.

I think my overall range might be too tight in these situations. Would you consider squeezing any pair? What other types of hands would you incorporate? Should I look to include hands like AJo+, ATs+, A2-A5s? Any SCs or broadway hands?

I disagree about this being perfectly fine.

V is 3x off a 18/19BB stack from earlyish position meaning their range will be fairly tight. I dont think 77 plays well against this range. If called we are flipping at best. I think there are better spots to shove.

I agree. His range is face up.

Yeah if V is somewhat decent he's probably opening on the tighter side and we're not too happy to gii. So we flat...?

All-in squeezing w/ around 20 BBs? yeah, right!

I've run some quick numbers, focusing on the opener's range as it's him that I'm mainly worried about.

If he opens 77+, ATs+, AQo+, KQ thats 8% of hands
If he'll fold AJ-, 88-, KQ to the shove then his calling range is 5.5% and he's folding 31% of the time

Against the calling range, 77 wins 35% of the time, so:
31% of the time he folds and we win 680
24% we get called and win 2,162
45% we get called and lose 1,722
net cEV = 45 negative

That's assuming the CO always folds - and I think when he does continue we're not doing great against his range either, so our equity (particularly fold equity) is even worse than indicated by focusing on the opener. Also can't be overlooked that the blinds will sometimes wake up with a monster and have us crushed

Based on the ranges that I've assigned I don't hate a fold and wait for a better spot. Whether those ranges are fair or not could be crucial though! Stack feels a bit shallow to setmine when not closing the action

Yeah I didn't notice at first glance how low the blinds were. There isn't enough dead money to make this risk worthwhile.

Run the calculations at 100/200/30 or whatever and you'll get a different result.

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Your numbers are a bit off. MP has the effective stack so we can only win 1930 or lose 1490 if called. This makes it basically neutral as a shove.

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Ah yes - good spot, my bad

+1, just fold pre