19 players left in a live 40 player MTT. Top 3 will cash.
Starting stacks were 15k. Avg stack is now around 21k.
Mostly spewy limp/call/fold players at my table. Hero has 33k behind (20BB). The only real threat to me is the luckboxing LAG 2 seats to my right (player to my immediate right had just been eliminated) who has about 35k behind. He has called all ins from smaller stacks with 22, QT, J8, and AJ. He bluffed and showed twice - once with Kd5h on bricked flop, and a shove against another small stack with Q7o. He calls way too much, limps too much, limp/calls too much, and 3bets frequently. Saw him 4bet once.
Blinds 800/1600
Hero (UTG) 33k A
K
Villain (BB) 35k
Hero opens for 2.5 BB (4k)
Folds to villain, who smiles at me and says "i'm gonna raise all in on this one"
I started thinking (overthinking) - his range is WIDE here. He has made this stupid face in an earlier hand, and he showed me a better 2 pair when I folded to him. I figure he has any pair, AK, AQ. i block some AA, some AK, some AQ, some KK. I don't think he has garbage here....but based on what I perceive his range to be, I am maybe a hair over 50% -- closer to 60% if I toss in some AJ and KQ. Pot is 39800. If I win the hand I am chip leader and can coast. If I lose, I am out.
Hero?
Last edited by Alex DeLarge; 05-31-2018 at 02:59 AM.
Reason: clarification