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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 09-23-2018, 04:10 AM   #1
III PRO III
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AKs on the flop, stack off?

My intention with 28bb behind was to check shove with what I assume is going to be almost always 15 out even tho there's 5 people in the pot.

But facing the action should we fold ?

PokerStars - 800/1600 Ante 240 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 25.51 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (UTG): 30.6 BB
UTG+1: 24.19 BB (VPIP: 15.65, PFR: 10.62, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 116)
MP: 25.11 BB (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 16.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
MP+1: 73.62 BB (VPIP: 39.71, PFR: 14.93, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 70)
MP+2: 29.66 BB (VPIP: 20.58, PFR: 16.60, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 280)
CO: 12.22 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BTN: 45.79 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
SB: 42.97 BB (VPIP: 20.29, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 71)

9 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.85 BB) Hero has A K

Hero raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 2.25 BB, fold, CO calls 2.25 BB, fold, SB calls 1.75 BB, BB calls 1.25 BB

Flop: (12.6 BB, 5 players) 8 8 7
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP+1 bets 3.78 BB, fold, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero raises to 28.2 BB and is all-in, fold, SB calls 18.2 BB

Turn: (72.77 BB, 2 players) T

River: (72.77 BB, 2 players) 7
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Old 09-23-2018, 04:16 AM   #2
adriang
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Re: AKs on the flop, stack off?

After a bet and a raise it's very likely you're behind and may even be drawing dead if one of the other players have an 8. With just one player you could consider continuing (call and try to bluffcatch) but here you just have to let it go.

Edit: Oops, didn't notice we have a FD.
I'd say it's close, the SB raise can mean an 8 which would suck but it can also be a hand like 99 or TT that SB decided to just flat pre. Not thrilled about it but our hand is probably too strong to fold.

Last edited by adriang; 09-23-2018 at 04:22 AM.
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Old 09-23-2018, 09:07 AM   #3
Craft1k
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Re: AKs on the flop, stack off?

Quote:
I'd say it's close, the SB raise can mean an 8 which would suck but it can also be a hand like 99 or TT that SB decided to just flat pre. Not thrilled about it but our hand is probably too strong to fold.
At that point SB is having much more 8x combinations than 99 or TT I think...
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Old 09-23-2018, 10:33 AM   #4
Darth_Maul
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Re: AKs on the flop, stack off?

I think it's fine but you have to realize that in a 5-way pot with a bet and raise in front, you likely only have the flush outs against 8x.
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Old 09-23-2018, 10:44 AM   #5
jjpregler
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Re: AKs on the flop, stack off?

1) I probably still c-bet this hand and see what happens. You definitely have a decent enough flop for your hand. You are happy to play this hand, so why not c-bet. I think in this spot being the preflop aggressor, planning a check/shove if fancy play syndrome. If you bet only value hands here and never any draws/bluffs, your range will not be balanced. And what better draws are you really going to get?

2) If the SB is balanced, including flush draws and/or OESD's in his range, and betting all of his possible over pairs you should have about 40% - 45% equity. So I'm not sure folding is really an option yet.

3) However, since you checked, I'm not sure that shoving is the best option either. You are still bluffing. You do not have a made hand and you need to hit something to beat SB's value range. The definition of a good bluff is getting better hands to fold. How many better hands in his range are going to fold to a shove when he has to call 18BBs to win 52BBs? If he folds any part of his range, it is going to a part of the range that you either have great equity against or hands you are already beating. Even with these monster hands, if you have little to no quality fold equity, bluffing is not prudent.
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Old 09-23-2018, 10:46 AM   #6
ShipThisPLZ
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Re: AKs on the flop, stack off?

I dont really love getting it in here, we never have fold eq vs the bet and raise. Check shoving with draws are useful when we have fold eq and to overs to the best hand often. Its not the case here. Also we barely have any 8x if any raising utg.

http://www.power-equilab.com
Board: 8s8h7h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 19.36% 19.31% 0.05% { AhKh }
MP3 17.15% 16.70% 0.45% { TT-44, JTs, T9s, 98s, QhJh, QhTh }
CO 63.49% 63.03% 0.46% { 77, A8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 87s, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, 6h5h }
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