PokerStars - 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 14.46 BB (VPIP: 5.88, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
BB: 29.98 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 35.86 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 42.86, Hands: 17)
UTG+1: 21.07 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
MP: 23.5 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
Hero (MP+1): 51.19 BB
CO: 141.09 BB (VPIP: 41.18, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
BTN: 30.48 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has K A

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 4 9 2
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 5
UTG bets 30.24 BB and is all-in, fold,

Would you guys cbet this flop texture vs unknown villain?

I would cbet a flop this dry our range is pretty strong here.

I think c-bet small is fine. Both of us and UTG didn't hit the flop well, but we are still ahead because we hold 3-bet range like QQ+, AKo, AKs, AQo(bluff), KJs(bluff), A5s(bluff). UTG should call with a lot of hands, like all ace-high from his range to make our c-bet unprofitable and it's hard for him to do that because if his stack size.

This is not an easy answer. First he should have a range advantage on this board, as it hits his loose calling range better than our 3 bet range, unless you polarized for board coverage. That would be an argument to check.

However, as cizixap mentioned, he is going to have a hard time meeting defense frequencies. That would be an argument to c-bet.

Fine to go ahead and make your std range cb here, I would go 33 - 40% , this way we can potentially see all 5 as he might x/c some of his value hands and we can check through for a free turn, where if we check he might lead a brick turn with all his pp.. also he might call the cb with AQ,AJ

Do you think?

If we give ourselves a range of JJ+,AQs+,AKo - and V a range of JJ-66,AQs-A2s,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,AQo-A7o,K9o+,QTo+,JTo
then our equity goes up rather than down on this flop

Adding in a few light 3b hands doesn't change it much

^^ JJ, AQs would rather flat against EP's opening with 35BB behind.

Running both imagined ranges in Holdem EQ

Board: 9c4h2d

Range 1: TT-22,T9o,A9s,A5s-A2s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,98s-97s,65s,54s,AhQh,AcQc,AdQd,AhJh,AcJc,AdJd,AhTh,AcT c,AdTd,Ah8h,Ac8c,Ad8d,Ah7h,Ac7c,Ad7d,Ah6h,Ac6c,Ad6 d,
KhQh,KcQc,KdQd,KhJh,KcJc,KdJd,KhTh,KcTc,
KdTd,QhJh,QcJc,QdJd,QhTh,QcTc,QdTd,JhTh,JcTc,JdTd, Th8h,Tc8c,Td8d,8h7h,8c7c,8d7d,8h6h,8c6c,8d6d,7h6h, 7c6c,7d6d

Range 2: AA-99,AKs-AQs,A9s-A2s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AKo-AQo,KJo,QJo

Equity 1: 50.789% Win 1: 50.058% Tie 1: 1.462%
Equity 2: 49.211% Win 2: 48.480% Tie 2: 1.462%

Preflop we would go from a 57% - 43% range advantage to being a slight underdog on the flop. If that does not define "range advantage" I don't know what does. And that is even if I include 99 in our range. If I take that out, then our range is also capped.

This villain seems quite LAG, even though only 17 hands, I would be willing to expand the 3bet range as if he was opening from MP instead of a standard EP range.

My range above is quite wide, and maybe too wide, but with his stats I would be more than comfortable putting JJ and AQs in the 3bet range.

I understand what you are saying though. Against a standard EP open, I would probably lean to calling those.

Bet the flop.

these ranges seem way too wide tho - Are you 3 betting an UTG raise this wide? Do you think anyone expects you to? A tighter 3b range gains equity on this flop.

I am 3betting this player with a range this wide.

His stat line:

(VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 42.86, Hands: 17)

^^ agree, this range is unreasonably wide vs supposedly tight EP(35BB) opening. For example suited aces are pretty playable post-flop, sometimes we can 3--bet some of them for bluff, like "magical" A5s hand, but not all the time.

based on 17 hands sample size? it's not justified at all.

I mean 17 hands is just 2 orbits in 8-max game. It means that V was on UTG 2 times max. Now, if you expand PT stats on him, you can see that it only groups the stat on 6 positions instead of 8, EP includes first two positions. so, RFI for EP could be 2/4 meaning that he opened 1 hand from UTG and 1 hand from UTG+1, but it does not mean that he opens 50% from EP on average
the same reasoning is applicable for any of his stat.
this is why it's good idea to set up your HUD minimum No of Hands requirement to a large value. don't let unreliable numbers fool you.

If this is run through Bayes Theorem, with his stats, it will probably show he is more likely LAG than a TAG on a heater. 17 Hands with a PFR of 29% means he has raised 5 hands preflop already. There is a 90% chance his PFR will fall between 17.6% which is pretty standard all the way to 41%.

^^ Actually you don't know from which positions he raised those 5 hands from. for example he opened 2 times from BTN, 2 times from CO and 1 time from SB when everyone folded. That does not mean that he is LAG, it's pretty standard play. Bayesian reasoning is not applicable here.

Genuinely surprised

Its 17 hands so we should not be reading into this too much.. ranges seem way to wide for utg.. its proly fine to not even have a 3b bluff range readless and just raise the top

Definitely a small sample size but we see this all the time in tournaments. I just think we need to give a 17-hand sample much less analytical weight than a 100-200+ hand tourney sample.

I think I would put more weight in his position, stack, sizing, etc.

As for the hand, first thing that catches my attention is that I'd like to size my 3bet a bit larger here and hit vill's push/fold inflection point and just try to GII at these depths (32bb effective for opener left behind). Maybe an over-sized 3bet to around 8-9bb would accomplish that? I prefer that to a small 3bet that gets flatted 100%, even in-position.

What are some thoughts on just trying to get vill to shove PF? Too deep for that maneuver?