Hi,

to be honest I am kind of lost in these spots. The player is unknown. What would be the optimal play here? Just fold the turn? I think his range is mostly AQo, KQs, QJs, QTs, 99+, KJs, KTs, JTs and againts this I have only 23% equity.

But I don't really know how to approach this spot. Any advice will be greatly appriciated!

Poker Stars, $6.69 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 15,689 (78.4 bb)
Hero (BB): 8,200 (41 bb)
UTG+2: 11,685 (58.4 bb)
MP1: 16,924 (84.6 bb)
MP2: 11,453 (57.3 bb)
MP3: 9,368 (46.8 bb)
CO: 12,394 (62 bb)
BTN: 13,014 (65.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
UTG+2 raises to 442, MP1 calls 442, 3 folds, BTN calls 442, SB folds, Hero raises to 1,900, UTG+2 calls 1,458, 2 folds

Flop: (4,984) 4 Q 9 (2 players)
Hero bets 1,695, UTG+2 calls 1,695

Turn: (8,374) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 4,940, Hero folds

Results: 8,374 pot
Final Board: 4 Q 9 3
Hero mucked K A and lost (-3,620 net)
UTG+2 mucked and won 8,374 (4,754 net)

Seems standard
He doesn't fold to the squeeze, he doesn't fold to the CB. What more info you need to know that you are behind?
Check/fold turn is OK

3 bet is a little small, shove pre feels like bingo but cant be the worst way to play

Interesting. Do you really think jamming pre with 41bb is good here? Maybe <25bb.

I guess shoving AKo here when sitting on 41bb seems a bit overboard IMO. I'd rather 3-bet like you said.

I'm not trying to knock you in any regard, but would you mind explaining why 3-bet jamming is bingo... You're risking 41bb to pick up 7.36 bb which means this play needs to work 85% of the time.

Why 3-bet jam here, when 3-betting to a slightly bigger size, yields the almost the same results without risking 41bb to do so?

Standard 3 bet OOP should be 4-4.5x + 1 per overcaller (or close to pot) is ~13bb, if we get 1 caller we get 31bb otf and 28bb behind.. so we basically have to blindly shove the flop which tbh probably isn't the worst thing in the world. this came up a little while ago in another forum I tried to dig it up but didn't find it, anyway I'm not sure what the best play but if 40bb is about average or less than average stack size in the tourney I shove here

Also your math about working 85% time isnt right, we have AK not napkins

I understand what you're saying. Last night I made a formula for this in Excel to see the Chip EV on how much we win when villain(s) fold(s), the % they fold, the percentage they call, and our equity we have against the ranges they are calling with... I then checked my formula with results in another poker software. Both yielded similar answers within .025 of a BB. Both are profitable, that's a good thing.

My statement that this play needs to work 85% of the time isn't incorrect. The math is correct.

I think the disagreement is in the application of this math. Yes we are most definitely not holding napkins. However, we must consider should we get called, the ranges villains are calling with, and consider our equity against those hands relative to what we are risking.

The times we get called, we are taking a huge risk not being able to continue in the tournament because those ranges have considerable equity against us.

So if we 3-bet, we are able to condense villains ranges enough to a similar range that would call our all 41bb all in without risking 41bb to do so allowing us to potentially fold to 4-bets or realize our equity post flop for cheaper without risking our tournament life.

I agree with your 3-bet sizing. I understand the SPR is awkward otf. However, considering the ranges I eluded to above, should you get called, you can adjust accordingly on different flop textures.

hmmm okay, maybe post your math and I'll take a look.

try your best to follow mine, I know this can be a bit tough to follow

***********************************************

to simplify the math and because I will do just about anything to avoid matrix algebra lets assume we either get folds or one caller*

V calling range is TT+,AKo, AQs call it R1

AKo Vs R1 has 42.87% equity


when we win the pot by shoving we get 9.1bb = (2.2bb * 3 + SB + BB + 1bb for anti)
when we get called the total pot size is 87.9bb = (41bb * 2 + 2.2bb*2 + SB + 1bb for anti)

now we declare a variable x which is the % of time we get folds

to break even 0=x*9.1+(1-x)(42.87%-57.13%)(87.9) EQ1)
simplified: 0=x*9.1-(1-x)(14.26%)(87.9)
0=(the percentage of folds * the +BB from folds) - (the percentage of time we get called times our expected EV when called)

x=0.6272

meaning so long as we get 42% folds we are break even and if we get more than that we are making money.

for giggles lets give V calling range just JJ+ AK = R2

Vs R2 we have 39.785% or losing (-) 20.430% EQ1) becomes

to break even 0=x*9.1-(1-x)(0.20430*87.9)

x=0.6637 or 66.37% folds

if we weaken V range we quickly get to the point where AK is break even or + EV at this point it just starts printing money

I hope this helps

*given how tight our calling ranges are I believe this is a fair assumption. If you want to see for yourself we have 24% equity Vs 2 players with range R1 and the odds of us being called twice is probably about 1/10

I went back to edit my post so many times it blocked me out lol

there was a mistake in the loss end of the calc, being that when we get called and win we stand to win a double up + chips in the pot but when we get called and lose we can only lose our stack

***********************************************

to simplify the math and because I will do just about anything to avoid matrix algebra lets assume we either get folds or one caller*

V calling range is TT+,AKo, AQs call it R1

AKo Vs R1 has 42.87% equity


when we win the pot by shoving we get 9.1bb = (2.2bb * 3 + SB + BB + 1bb for anti)
when we get called 42.87% of the time we stand to win the pot + a double up 46.9bb
when we get called 57.13% of the time we stand to loose our stack 41bb

now we declare a variable x which is the % of time we get folds

to break even 0=x*9.1+(1-x)(42.87%*46.9bb-57.13%*41bb) EQ1)
0=(the percentage of folds * the +BB from folds) - (the percentage of time we get called times our expected EV when called)

x=0.267=26.7% percent folds


*given how tight our calling ranges are I believe this is a fair assumption. If you want to see for yourself we have 24% equity Vs 2 players with range R1 and the odds of us being called twice is probably about 1/10

Captain. I apologize, your math is correct.


42% is correct. Not 85%. I know the formula but for some reason I arrived at 85% which means I must have entered in something twice on accident thus nearly double the percentage and didn't even question the result. My mistake.

I guess my biggest point of contention was the chip ev when our jam works along with the times we get called. The good news is I did those formulas correctly and I think either way is ok.

The only main point was to advise 3-betting is possibly a better option than jamming on 41 bb or certain effective stack sizes.

Sorry for making you spell out your math for us lol. My bad.

no worries my dude! I wouldn't be doing it if i wasn't curious what the answer was.

just to be clear my final answer was the play is +EV if it folds around more than 27% of the time, say 30 to correct assumptions

also i totally agree 3 bet may be better, and it's definitely not wrong. As someone who multi tables a lot i just like shove b/c it makes my life easier

Ripping 40bbs OOP with AK vs an open + 2 callers looks totally standard here.