I don't remember any stats, just had this hand saved for review

$3.5 45m SnG

8 handed - relevant stacks
UTG - Hero $2186 28bb
UTG+1 -$2338 30bb
SB - $3641 45bb
BB - $1244 16bb

Delt to hero AK

Hero raises to 2.2bb, UTG+1 calls, Sb calls, BB calls

Flop 11bb 59K

check, check, check, check

I go for pot control here, SPR is 2 so maybe bet flop gii OTT is better

Turn 11bb 9

SB bets 5.5bb, hero only caller

River 22bb 3

hero has 20bb behind

SB ships, hero folds

losing to flushes and 9s which are both in SB range, don't see him playing a lot of Kings like this but I suppose it is possible

I think this is 95% a c-bet and I like pot control better than most. Just to many reasons to bet and not enough to check.

The problem with the river fold is your perceived range, you seem to have mostly some random PP/A high so he can easily value shove any Kx and have some bluffs. You probably have close to the best possible hand you can have after taking this line (some 9x possibly but not so much UTG I guess) wich is an excellent reason to call river, if not you allow V the winning strategy to lead turn and shove river with pretty much any gutshot/FD/anything and print monney. We don't know if he does that but we don't know that he doesn't.

I could maaaaaaybe see river being a fold with a precise solid read that our opponent is very weak passive and straightforward and somewhat paranoid (he has to not value bet KJ/KQ and the vast majority of players will even the nits when you seem face up on TT-QQ) and able to c-f river with all the Ahx/Qhjx etc... that he will lead turn. You probably need at least 1K hands with the guy to have that kind of read (and even then we're leveling ourself into the "**** gto" thing, that's always dangerous).

So snap call river, we can't overthink it, we don't love it but a balanced unexploitable strategy is pretty effective at all stakes and the idea that GTO wouldn't work in small stakes is completly ridiculous. It's usually not optimal (=>cbet) but it will always be winning.

Pot control is not really relevant at SPR 2. It's relevant if we are SPR 10, where stronger hands cannot reasonably get stacks in with 2 bets if we check the flop.

As it is, we have a strong but vulnerable hand. We have to bet/GII on the flop. Yes we are dead to flushes and sets, but there are far more combos of single heart hands and top pair from whom we can either get value or deny equity.

Control the pot by making it bigger otf.

Call river.

Yeah there's just too much value to check here and checking feels almost like we're surrendering later to normal bets and I don't really wanna do that with sub 30 blinds and have TPTK AK.

Assuming you aren't opening like 20% here:
- We should have range advantage on all the villains.
- The only great turns for us are A or K (5)
- Any 9, T, J, Q or h is not that great for us (20)
- We are ahead against these weak ranges a ton of the time here


Definitely a bet. I like a bigger size 3/4. Pot would also be OK but I think it skews the calling range a bit to the point that it may not be profitable. But at these stakes you never know. I wouldn't fixate on size other than make sure it's enough to get you all in on a non h turn.

9 Turn sucks but I think I am still just jamming that. We are still beating lots of Ahx and Kx with a heart.

River jam is tough and pretty read dependent. The type of villian that is jamming river here is pretty polarized between maniacs and smooth operators. If this guy has shown any amount of poker IQ I would consider folding. With no reads and this population though it's a default call.

Really like the flop check. Cbet is not making that much money, that is the hands which give action on the flop have tons of equity. Checking allows us to get away from certain action sequences and a brick turn checked to us really promotes the value of AK.

River is close but I feel much better about calling off river than gii on the flop.

As Czech Rays said, pot control isn't relevant at this stack depth. They still applied max pressure without a bet on the flop. I feel like when I play like this I'm looking for an excuse to fold and preserve my stack. I'm almost hoping a heart will come so I have an easy fold, or that there's a bet and raise in front of me so I can get away. Not necessarily a terrible strategy, but probably not optimal assuming there's no ICM considerations.
If you bet the flop and only get action from the SB then proceed to get it in there or the turn, all his monsters are still in his range, his draws still have equity, and his airballs are gone. So why do that vs bluff catch which keeps his airballs in there and you can see the whole board?
I think I like your play. The fact that you don't know what to do on the river doesn't mean you did something wrong. The SB realized their range is extremely polarized vs yours and played it perfectly. You're pretty much clicking buttons on the river without a read. Well played by both players, if the SB is playing anywhere near correctly I don't think it really matters what you did on the river in the long run.

I think villains stats are paramount here. V unknowns with no time to search them I'm calling river as played.