AK Hot 4.40 86 BB deep Villian raises TPTK on Turn - MTT Poker Strategy

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AK Hot 4.40 86 BB deep Villian raises TPTK on Turn

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12-11-2020 , 09:40 AM

chaching2903

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 19

Villian is 25/8/0 in a very small sample size, 24 hands.

PokerStars - 30/60 Ante 8 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 82.4 BB
UTG+1: 85.6 BB
MP: 88.33 BB
MP+1: 76.63 BB
CO: 76.45 BB
BTN: 87.6 BB
Hero (SB): 86.13 BB
BB: 49.32 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.57 BB) Hero has A

UTG raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7.25 BB, fold, UTG calls 5.05 BB

Flop: (16.57 BB, 2 players) J

Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: (16.57 BB, 2 players) K

Hero bets 5.47 BB, UTG raises to 15.93 BB

Thoughts here?

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12-11-2020 , 11:46 AM

rayfox111

adept

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,184

His range is prob. 99+, AQo+,AJs+, maybe add KQs.
Its a wet flop and turn and he seems confident hes ahead.
Could be AQ or trips with TT or JJ.
Would he raise you with KQ, I doubt it.
I think on that board I'm folding but then again I'm a nit!

Last edited by rayfox111; 12-11-2020 at 12:08 PM.

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12-11-2020 , 01:33 PM

killer_kill

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 28,610

I'd bet the flop and call the turn as played.

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12-11-2020 , 02:00 PM

JoeryR

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 29

You have to bet this flop. You are betting TT+ on this board for value so ypu need some bluffs in your range. Checking AQ+ will get you exposed to exploitative play by thinking opponents.

Villain is a weak passive player even after 24 hands. When those players raise you on the turn they have you beat. He won't fold much to 3bets because of the big gap between VPIP and PFR.

I don't think villain has flopped much because he's checking back. 77, TT and JJ would have bet the flop, so the only hand that makes sense is AQ with 12 combos. I think I would fold versus a passive player who starts raising the turn

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12-11-2020 , 05:10 PM

Yeodan

Micro NLHE Coach

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

I honestly hate these spots on the flop and have no clue how to play them myself.

Checking seems to always end up in me check/folding
Betting seems to always end up in me bet/folding to a raise or being forced to check the turn and then fold to a turn bet.

If we bet the flop, what sizing do we use?

As played I think we have to call the turn, folding is way too weak.
Re-evaluate our hand strength on the river when facing a bet.

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12-12-2020 , 05:48 AM

JoeryR

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeodan

Yes, I agree but we still have to bet. If he has AQ+ and we bet he will probably fold but he is never going to fold with AJ, KJ, 77, TT, JJ, KQ. So, betting 1/3 pot is the only option.

When villain checks back flop he could be trapping with 77, TT, JJ.

Like I said before, when you get raised on this turn you'll likely be beat. Definately at the microstakes. Not many players are bluffing after a 3bet pot pre flop. This guy is a 25/8 which is very passive, weak and tight. I guess he has an agression factor below 2 too. So, I seriously don't mind folding this turn versus villain.

What do we beat is the question?

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12-12-2020 , 06:34 AM

Yeodan

Micro NLHE Coach

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeryR

Yes, I agree but we still have to bet. If he has AQ+ and we bet he will probably fold but he is never going to fold with AJ, KJ, 77, TT, JJ, KQ. So, betting 1/3 pot is the only option.

I'm not folding AQ to a 1/3 pot bet when I'm IP on this kind of flop ...
Like I said, villain can just float with anything and take the pot on the turn if we check to them.

Even if we would fold out AQ and AK, that probably isn't enough of villain's range to make this a profitable cbet.
Especially since we won't make AQ and certainly not AK fold here most of the time.

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