Encountered this hand at a MTT last night and was curious if there was something I could do better. First time posting here in a while so apologies if I miss any necessary details.

Blinds 100/200
Hero in CO with about 8600 and is the effective stack
V in HJ is a 50s-60s female. She has been limping occasionally, but has been aggressive on post flop

V limps, folds around to Hero who looks down at AsJs. Hero raises to 600. Folds to V who calls.

Pot (1500)
Flop
3 7 J r

Hero bets 700, V Raises to 2000, Hero calls

Turn Q (Pot 5500)

V checks, Hero checks

River K (Pot 5500)

V bets 2500, Hero?

Her line was pretty confusing as I don't really see what she raises on the flop that checks the turn unless she was over valuing TPGK. I thought maybe she could have had 9 10 suited but I'm not sure why she wouldn't continue barreling the turn. Also the possibility that she had a set and was trying to be fancy. This runout makes it a tough call either way because almost every bluff I can put her on seems to connect in some way.

Curious on your thoughts




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KJ for value (why limp pre?) and TJs (or 9Js) turned into a bluff are all that make sense. I don't see QJ checking turn except maybe to disguise (but not a great idea, since the board got a lot wetter, especially if it put a bdfd out), and 9T should bet as its equity increased but showdown value remained none. Is there a lot of limping in your room? If villain is a reg in the room and there is often limping, or if she is very recreational, I'd be wary of river bet. If villain has any idea what they're doing, I'd probably call. I think she senses weakness and thinks she can take it away with a bad jack (or heck, maybe TT or 99). Definitely a time for live reads and intuition though, so your instinct is probably best.

Bigger pre.

On the river your most likely hand is Jx and worse so V has incentive to take this sizing with Kx and Qx for value.

In theory, on the flop V should be occasionally bluffing with hands like T9s, 98s, KXs, and even some A4s-A5s w/ BDFD. And going for value with 33, AJ, and KJ.

In practice, V's don't x/r enough so his x/r range is likely to be stonger than it ought to be. That means too much Jx and better relative to air like KQs, QTs, et al.

So I think in practice this is a reraise OTF because you encounter so many worse-that'll-call (KJ, QJ, JT to name a few) combos relative to air.

You really can't ever fold this hand OTF without being exploitable (this is like 85th percentile of your range on the flop) so against a too-strong range, your exploit with top of range is you just wanna GII as quickly as possibly

By the time you get to the river, V will have too few bluffs (not enough A4s, for example) relative to value (KQ, AQ, QT, Q9, T9, 33) in his range to justify you calling it off.

Fold river.

I would make it closer to 800 pre

I am happy folding the river in this spot

Over generalizing isn't usually a good thing but a 50+ lady isnt usually going to be bluffing

You say she was aggressive post, did you see any showdown to give a better read on her?

I am afraid of 77, 33 and KJ on the river

ha yea that is a bad run out ay.. I can't see what hands we beat that take this line otr, guess the best candidate is JT but highly doubt this has been x/r otf and vb otr, esp vs this profile. I think this line is underbluffed so air is very unlikely.

While we are getting better than 3-1 otr and only need to be right <25% of the time I still think we can fold here.

Otf 2ps are unlikely, guess any set is possible with overpairs seeing she seems fairly passive.. along with KJ,QJ