Hi guys

V is 80/38 in 60 hands. Table captain and chip leader by far. He doubled up his stack playing very aggro every postflop street. He open with a variety of sizes , but i couldn´t find a pattern as very few hands reach showdown

Only 5 spots left to FT. I am one of the last as i lost one big flip like 2 hands ago.

Even if we know we have no FE against this guy shove is normal right?


Question : But if we were like in "middle or upper positions" (like 5-7 out of 15 left) can we find a fold here?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.90 Buy-in (1,250/2,500 blinds, 310 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 52,092 (20.8 bb)
BB: 40,609 (16.2 bb)
MP1: 304,668 (121.9 bb)
MP2: 36,954 (14.8 bb)
MP3: 45,173 (18.1 bb)
CO: 61,464 (24.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): 33,994 (13.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J A
MP1 raises to 10,920, 3 folds, Hero raises to 33,684 and is all-in, 2 folds, MP1 calls 22,764

Yes - nice spot to shove - would shove any of the stacks on the table with this hand against V as described - ICM is not huge yet and everyone should be trying to build up their chipstacks

if u were 5-7/15 then your stack would have been probably deeper like 20bb+ and you could probably just call AJo and play it IP postlop - not bad against aggro player.
if you were 5-7/15 and had 13bb then it means that there is a bunch of shorter stacks and you could fold to let them finish the tourney first.

Ah thanks this was my main doubt , so first we do everything to be in FT and once "inside" we use ICM

Uummm we are sooo short and table is 6 handed...will we have a chance like this later?¡ ; i understand that if other guys are like 5-6 BB i can make it by default to the FT but if they win their shoves and get MY stack of 13 BB will i not miss the chance i had with a powerful hand like TT?

The way I see it, he's never folding to your jam, and you're way, way ahead of his range which is a pretty impressive feat when you jam w/ {AJo} and get a call. I'd guess you have upwards of 57% equity vs his calling range. If you want to wait for a better hand or spot, then good luck, because this particular spot right here is as close to a home run jam as you can get.

EZ jam. If he never folds you're jamming 34k to win 40k and your EV is 3.2bb. That's 30x the per-hand winrate of what a true sicko can achieve--it doesn't get more clear cut as this spot.

Even maniacs do crazy things so you probably still have a little bit of Fold Equity. And even if you don't you are far ahead of his range. This is a very profitable spot to take and ICM is not a huge consideration here.

You probably lost and are in doubt because of that... Your shove is making you money on the long run on spots so don't worry.

Standard shove. The final table isn't a real bubble, just something we aim for because you have to get there to have a chance at the real money. You should still play an appropriately aggressive game to accumulate chips to use on the final table. Don't back off because you want to sneak into the FT.

something like AT+KQ, 66+ is proly fine

AJ, 13BB's, short stack at the table, and facing a raise from an 80/20 at a short handed table = easy shove.

I want to focus in on this statement. Why is it that you feel you have 0% FE? I see this so often in posts. FE is always > 0%, unless the bet is so small he has to just shrug his shoulders and call.

While he is getting ~ 2:1 pot odds and should theoretically call wide, I have seen some baffling folds in my day. I've seen preflop folds to an all with ~3:1 pot odds.

What happens if you catch him with the very bottom of his range. Yes, he should probably still call, but that does not mean he will call.

Second, you have a top 7% hand. If he is in fact calling off 100%, how is that a bad thing for your hand? Your hand is ahead of his range. Get it in.

You labelled him as maniac. The average open from that seat is about 15%. Let's only increase that by 50% and give him a 23% range. (Maniacs may have as much as 30% from this spot, but I want to show you a conservative number to show you how good your hand is against his range.) As you say, he calls 100%.

You are betting 33,684 and the pot will contain 84,288 when he calls.

Against the top 23% AJ has 56% equity. 84,288 * 56% = 47,201 for 13.6k average profit.

If he has a 30% range, our hand has 58% equity and a 38% = to his PFR our hand has 60% equity.

While this is undoubtedly true--and w/o being pedantic--I think the point of saying theres 0% FE in this context is:

1. It's definitely a small # when you're talking about someone who's VPIPed 80% of the 60 hands of data we have on him, and covers us by 10x

2. To establish an absolute worst case scenario for us, our EV only goes up as our FE does, and if it's massively +EV to jam in this spot w/ no FE, then it's REALLY MASSIVELY +EV to jam in this spot when we have FE

Just trying to know the overall mind set-strategy when getting closer to a FT

It´s so hard (for a recreational player like me) to finally get close to one in one of this 4000 guys event that unconsciosly you get shy and tight even with a clear call like this vs this tipe of player.

Of course he called with KJo....and of course two J´s came haha ; i suppose i was sad and result orientated when i posted this hand but i suppose ifa hand is well played results will come in time !!!

Thank you all guys for your help !!!!!

Good.

That's the funny thing about tournaments - busting does not mean you did anything wrong.