Quote:
Originally Posted by miguelin43
Even if we know we have no FE against this guy shove is normal right?
I want to focus in on this statement. Why is it that you feel you have 0% FE? I see this so often in posts. FE is always > 0%, unless the bet is so small he has to just shrug his shoulders and call.
While he is getting ~ 2:1 pot odds and should theoretically call wide, I have seen some baffling folds in my day. I've seen preflop folds to an all with ~3:1 pot odds.
What happens if you catch him with the very bottom of his range. Yes, he should probably still call, but that does not mean he will call.
Second, you have a top 7% hand. If he is in fact calling off 100%, how is that a bad thing for your hand? Your hand is ahead of his range. Get it in.
You labelled him as maniac. The average open from that seat is about 15%. Let's only increase that by 50% and give him a 23% range. (Maniacs may have as much as 30% from this spot, but I want to show you a conservative number to show you how good your hand is against his range.) As you say, he calls 100%.
You are betting 33,684 and the pot will contain 84,288 when he calls.
Against the top 23% AJ has 56% equity. 84,288 * 56% = 47,201 for 13.6k average profit.
If he has a 30% range, our hand has 58% equity and a 38% = to his PFR our hand has 60% equity.